Round 2 - An Entree, A Main Course and A Dessert

Investors with Line Redux Fund exposure can look forward to a little more action this week, with bets placed on Adelaide giving 10.5 points start to the Saints on Friday night, on Collingwood giving 32.5 points start the Dees on Saturday, and on Sydney receiving 16.5 points from the Hawks, also on Saturday.

On the tipping front:

  • BKB, Chi, ELO and Home Sweet Home find themselves in the minority in tipping the Crows over the Saints
  • There's unanimous support for the Cats who are playing the Tigers. ELO has the Cats as 40 point favourites; BKB has them as 44.5 point favourites
  • There's further unanimity in the selection of the Pies to beat the Dees, with ELO and BKB again tipping large margins
  • The Blues v Lions clash has split the tipsters, with seven opting for the Blues and six for the Lions. Chi, who's on the Blues, has this as one of his two Games of the Round
  • Only Home Sweet Home see the Swans grabbing the points in their game against the Hawks. ELO, however, whilst tipping the Hawks, has them as just 3 point favourites
  • All tipsters have the Dons finishing with their noses in front of the Dockers, but none of those tipsters who offer margin forecasts have more than about a goal in it. ELO has this as its Game of the Round; Chi has it as his alternate Game of the Round (he's a dog - he's not good at making definitive choices)
  • Speaking of Dogs, they're the unanimous tipster choice in their matchup with the Roos. So strong are the Dogs' chance according to Chi and ELO that this is the only game in which they're both predicting that a favourite to cover the spread.
  • Finally, in the Eagles v Port game, everyone except Home Sweet Home is on Port.

Had you used Chi's or ELO's tips and margins for line betting purposes last weekend, you'd have scored just 2 from 8 if you'd used Chi's, but a profitable 5 from 8 if you'd used ELO's. This week, if you were following Chi you'd take the teams receiving start in the first six games of the round, and the teams giving start in the last two. If, instead, you were following ELO, you'd swap Collingwood for Melbourne in game 3 and West Coast for Port Adelaide in Game 8.

In terms of Absolute Prediction Error (the absolute value of the difference between the actual margin and the tipped margin), Chi averaged 35.5 points per game last week, ELO averaged 30.9, and BKB averaged just 28.0. You just have to tip your hat to the bookies ...