Consider the following scenario. You're offered a bet in which you can choose to predict the final score of the Home or of the Away team and your adversary is then required to predict the final score of the other team.
Last blog I identified a banker's dozen of algorithms that I thought were worthy of further consideration for Fund honours next season.
Experience has taught me that, behind the attractive veneer of some models with impressive historical ROIs often lurk troubling pathologies. One form of that pathology is exhibited by models with returns that come mostly from a handful of bets, one or two of them especially fortuitous. Another manifests as a 'bet large, bet often' approach that would subject any human on the business end of such wagering to the punting equivalent of a ride on The Big Dipper that's just as likely to end with you 100 metres above the ground as 200 metres below it. The question to be answered in this blog then is: do any of the 11 algorithms I've identified this time show any such characteristics?