2019 : Simulating the Finals Series After Round 17

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Let’s, again, simulate the Final series by applying the methodology described here to the 50,000 final ladders produced by our original simulations.

If we do that, we get the chart shown below, which shows each team’s Finals fate in terms of where they finished on the ladder at the end of the home-and-away season.

(Again, note that the bottom half of the chart is a mirror of the top half, but with each team enjoying its own y-axis in the bottom half to improve the ability to discern their underlying percentages.)

In the latest simulation replicates we see Brisbane Lions moving up to be second-favourites for the Flag, and now most-likely to finish 2nd at the end of the home-and-away season. The Lions win the Flag in about 18% of replicates, and do so from 1st or 2nd on the ladder about half the time.

Geelong wins the Flag about 22% of the time, but does so almost exclusively after finishing as Minor Premiers.

Collingwood, West Coast Coast, and Richmond are all 12 to 15% chances for the Flag, but most often win it after finishing outside the Top 2 on the final home-and-away ladder.

Summing across the teams, we have now the following analysis of Grand Final success based on final home-and-away ladder position:

  • 1st or 2nd wins 42% of the time, and finishes runners up 39% of the time

  • 3rd or 4th wins 37% of the time, and finishes runners up 39% of the time

  • 5th or 6th wins 11% of the time, and finishes runners up 12% of the time

  • 7th or 8th wins 9% of the time, and finishes runners up 10% of the time

Those percentages are broadly unchanged from last week.

WEEK OF ELIMINATION IN FINALS

In this next chart we look at teams' chances for various Finals finishes, ignoring their home and away ladder positions (ie we focus solely on the heights of the bars in the previous chart). The numbers shown inside a cell are the percentage of simulation replicates (multiplied by 100) in which the specified team went out in the specified week of the Finals.

We see here that, if we define the season in terms of the six events listed above plus "Miss the Finals", the most-likely finishes for each team are estimated to be:

  • Lose in a Preliminary Final: Geelong, Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, and West Coast (note though that Geelong, Brisbane Lions, Richmond and GWS are all more likely to play in a Grand Final than to go out in a Preliminary Final)

  • Lose in an Elimination Final: Richmond, GWS, Adelaide, and Essendon

  • Miss the Finals: all other teams

In terms of the Flag, we have fair prices of about $4.60 for Geelong, $5.50 for Brisbane Lions, $6.80 for Collingwood, $8.20 for West Coast, and $17 for Adelaide.

GRAND FINAL PAIRINGS 

In this final chart we look at all of the Grand Final pairings that occurred in at least one of the simulation replicates. The numbers shown inside a cell are the percentage of simulation replicates (multiplied by 100) in which the team named in the row defeated the team named in the column in the Grand Final.

We see that the most common Grand Final now has Geelong beating Brisbane Lions, and the second-most common has the opposite occurring. These two outcomes, combined, occurred in just over 9% of replicates.

The next-most likely pairing is Geelong and Collingwood, which occurred in about 7.4% of replicates, followed by Geelong and West Coast, and Brisbane Lions and Collingwood, both in just under 7%.

(Note that zeroes in the chart represent pairings that did occur at least once but in less than 0.05% of replicates.)