2018 : Simulating the Finals Series After Round 18

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Time to update our views on how, according to MoSHBODS, this year's finals might play out.

Firstly, let's look at the relationship between teams' ladder finishes and ultimate finals performance, applying the methodology described here to the 50,000 final ladders produced by our original simulations for this week.

The profiles for Richmond, West Coast, Geelong and Hawthorn changed little this week, while those for Collingwood, GWS, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and Sydney changed substantially. Richmond are still the only team with an estimated better than 50% overall (unconditional) chance in the Grand Final, though Collingwood and Melbourne are both only slightly below even-money chances.

Thirteen teams again made the Finals in at least one of the simulation replicates, Fremantle still least often of all. They made nine appearances across the 50,000 simulation replicates, advancing to the Semi-Final only twice.

WEEK OF ELIMINATION IN FINALS

In this next chart we look at teams' chances for various Finals finishes, ignoring their home and away ladder positions (ie we focus solely on the heights of the bars in the previous chart). The numbers shown inside a cell are the percentage of simulation replicates (multiplied by 100) in which the specified team went out in the specified week of the Finals (or achieved the specified result).

(Note that 0 entries reflect estimated probabilities greater than 0% but under 0.05%).

Richmond are still assessed as about 36% chances for the Flag and about 56% chances of playing in the Grand Final. West Coast are now about 16% chances for the Flag, Collingwood 14% chances, and GWS and Melbourne about 9% chances.

If we define the season in terms of the five events listed above plus "Miss the Finals", the most-likely finishes for each team are estimated to be:

  • Win the Grand Final: Richmond
  • Lose in a Preliminary Final: West Coast and Collingwood
  • Lose in a Semi Final: GWS
  • Lose in an Elimination Final:  Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Sydney, and Hawthorn
  • Miss the Finals: all other teams

GRAND FINAL PAIRINGS 

In this final chart we look at all of the Grand Final pairings that occurred in at least one of the simulation replicates. The numbers shown inside a cell are the percentage of simulation replicates (multiplied by 100) in which the team named in the row defeated the team named in the column in the Grand Final.

(Note that 0 entries reflect estimated probabilities greater than 0% but under 0.05%).

We see that the Grand Final pairing of Richmond v West Coast is most common, appearing in about 14% of replicates. Next is a Richmond v Collingwood Grand Final, which appeared in roughly 12% of replicates, and then Richmond V GWS, and Richmond v Melbourne Grand Finals, which appeared in about 8% of replicates.

The most-likely Grand Final not involved Richmond is a West Coast v Collingwood one, which occurred in just under 7% of replicates.

Richmond is currently estimated to win about 60 to 65% of Grand Finals against West Coast, Collingwood, GWS, Melbourne, and Geelong.