2018 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 7

Updated final home and away ladder simulations appear below.

(For details on the methodology, see this post from earlier.)

In terms of expected wins, the week's big gainers were:

  • Geelong (+0.9)
  • North Melbourne (+0.9)
  • West Coast (+0.7)
  • Melbourne (+0.7)

while the big losers were:

  • GWS (-1.0)
  • Sydney (-0.9)

In terms of Expected Wins, the teams ranked 5th and 11th are separated by only slightly more than a single win, and the teams ranked 3rd and 12th by only 2.5 wins.

Ten teams now have an estimated better than 50% chance of making the Final 8 (though only four have a better than 75% chance). Seven have a better than 25% chance of finishing Top 4, though only Richmond and West Coast a better than 50% chance. Richmond are now 65% chances for the Minor Premiership, an 11% point increase since last week.


Here's the updated list of the 30 most important games remaining in the fixture on the basis of their expected impact of all 18 teams' finals chances.

Games that were also on the Top 30 list last week are marked with an asterisk. Nineteen of the 29 games that were on last week's list and that weren't Round 7 games are still on the list.

Looking just at the next few rounds, we have the following counts of Top 30 games:

  • Round 8: 2
  • Round 9: 1
  • Round 10: 2
  • Round 11: 3