2017 : Simulating the Final Series After Round 23

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With the end of the home and away season we now confine ourselves to simulating only the remaining 9 games that make up the Finals series by applying the methodology as described in this blog.

In the chart below we record the proportion of the 50,000 simulations in which a particular team went out in a given week of the Finals.

We see from the chart that Adelaide remain clear favourites for the Flag, but we can also see the effects of the double-chances for the teams finishing in 1st to 4th. They are the only teams who are more likely to bow out of the Finals in a Preliminary Final rather than in a Semi Final (or, obviously, an Elimination Final).

You can see that even more clearly in the heatmap below.

In order of Flag fovouritism then, the simulations have it as:

  1. Adelaide
  2. Richmond
  3. Geelong
  4. GWS
  5. Sydney
  6. Port Adelaide
  7. Essendon
  8. West Coast

This is a similar ordering to the TAB bookmaker's ordering as at the time I type this, with the notable exception of Sydney. His ordering (and pricing for the Flag) is:

  • Adelaide ($3.,25)
  • Sydney ($4.00)
  • GWS ($5.50)
  • Geelong/Richmond ($6.00)
  • Port Adelaide ($17.00)
  • West Coast ($51.00)
  • Essendon ($67.00)

As impressive as the Swans have been in the latter parts of the season, a $4 price tag for a team that needs to win four Finals back-to-back seems ludicrously short.