With the end of the home and away season we now confine ourselves to simulating only the remaining 9 games that make up the Finals series by applying the methodology as described in this blog.
In the chart below we record the proportion of the 50,000 simulations in which a particular team went out in a given week of the Finals.
We see from the chart that Adelaide remain clear favourites for the Flag, but we can also see the effects of the double-chances for the teams finishing in 1st to 4th. They are the only teams who are more likely to bow out of the Finals in a Preliminary Final rather than in a Semi Final (or, obviously, an Elimination Final).
You can see that even more clearly in the heatmap below.
In order of Flag fovouritism then, the simulations have it as:
- Port Adelaide
- West Coast
This is a similar ordering to the TAB bookmaker's ordering as at the time I type this, with the notable exception of Sydney. His ordering (and pricing for the Flag) is:
- Adelaide ($3.,25)
- Sydney ($4.00)
- GWS ($5.50)
- Geelong/Richmond ($6.00)
- Port Adelaide ($17.00)
- West Coast ($51.00)
- Essendon ($67.00)
As impressive as the Swans have been in the latter parts of the season, a $4 price tag for a team that needs to win four Finals back-to-back seems ludicrously short.