Simulating the Finals for 2016 After Week 1

Geelong are narrow favourites for the Flag according to the latest set of 100,000 simulation replicates based on MoSSBODS' Team Ratings and on its assessments of the remaining teams' abilities at the venues they might inhabit over the remainder of the Finals series.

For the numerical details informing this chart we can, instead, inspect the heat map, whihc appears below.

When we compare these GF assessments with the current TAB market it's clear that MoSSBODS has quite different opinions about the relative strengths of many of the remaining teams. Most saliently, Geelong ($3.25) and Adelaide ($11) represent significant value on that market, Adelaide especially so given that MoSSBODS rates them as almost 13% chances for the Flag. GWS at $3.25 also carry a slightly positive expected return, but the edge is less than our customary minimum threshold of 5%.


If we look at each of the nine remaining possible GF matchups, the simulation offers the data summarised in the table at right.

When first I reviewed this table, I admit to being a bit perplexed about the fact that, in light of the most recent MoSSBODS Team Ratings, the Dogs and the Hawks were both favoured to beat the Swans in a GF.

But, then I remembered that MoSSBODS credits a 3 SS advantage to any team playing in its home state against a team from interstate, and I realised why it was the case. One of the things I'm keen to do in the off-season is finesse the Travel Penalty imposed on teams - in Finals and otherwise - but, for now, with some empirical justification, that is at it is. Consequently, the Cats, Dogs and Hawks enjoy an advantage in MoSSBODS' eyes, should they face Adelaide, GWS or Sydney in the Granny. Consequently, for example. the Dogs are about 56% and the Hawks 54% favourites over the Swans at the MCG.

So, as MoSSBODS sees it, the only pairing currently offering a sufficiently attractive positive expected return on TAB markets for the GF Quinella is Adelaide v Western Bulldogs at $51, though the Geelong v GWS, and Adelaide v GWS matchups also represent positive, if small expected returns.