Simulating the Finals Before Week 2 (And, Now It's Your Turn)

This week, for the first time ever on MoS (or MAFL), you can do more than just rant at the inanity of my Finals simulations: you can download an Excel spreadsheet and make your own assumptions. (Click here to download the spreadsheet).

The spreadsheet allows you to enter your own opinions about the probability with which any of the remaining teams will beat any other of the remaining teams (use the section headed "Probability Inputs" on the Inputs and Outputs tab) and then project what those assumptions imply for the fate of the six teams that remain (see the Outputs section on the same tab). Please let me know if you find any errors in the spreadsheet.

The version as downloaded includes probability assessments from the MoS model described previously, which imply the outcomes that are summarised in the table at right. Sydney, based on these probabilities, is more likely than not to win the Flag and, if they don't, Hawthorn are almost certain to win it instead. 

Based on these outputs, Sydney, who are priced at $2.25 on the TAB as I type this, represent the only team with value in the Flag market, a fact I've reflected by shading gray their Win Flag probability in the table.

Those same inputs can be used to project the teams that might meet in the GF. The outputs of such projection appear in the table at right that shows the overwhelmingly most likely GF as a Swans v Hawks contest.

(I've not created GF outputs in the downloadable spreadsheet, though anyone interested in doing so should find it easy by linking to information from the Calculations tab.)

The next-most likely Granny is a Swans v Freo affair and, after that, a Hawks v Cats matchup.

Based on these projections, none of the current TAB Bookmaker prices represent significant enough value to justify a wager.