Simulating the Finalists for 2013 : Post Round 18

As we'd expect, the results of last weekend have narrowed the possible ladder position finishes for those teams that still had possibilities to narrow, leaving the bulk of the uncertainty about which teams will finish 9th through 13th - a topic of interest surely only to a quite narrow subset of the footballing community.


According to this week's 10,000 simulations, which use the same algorithm and approach as I explained last week, but with updated team MARS Ratings, five teams still have some chance of winning the Minor Premiership, though for two of them - Essendon and Fremantle - that likelihood is almost small enough to round to zero.

Both Fremantle's and Essendon's chances shrank over the weekend, as did Geelong's and Sydney's, all victims to the success of the Hawks, who are now assessed as having a 73% chance of taking out the minor premiership according to the simulations.

That assessment of the Hawks' chances is large enough, relative to that of the TAB Bookmaker, to make the Hawks winning the minor premiership one of only two wagers in the TAB AFL Futures market currently sporting a positive expectation of more than 5% this week.

The other is for the Dons to finish in the Top 4, which the simulations now rate as a 31% chance. Essendon are one of nine teams rated as possibilities for finishing with the double chance, though only five teams have anything other than remote hopes: Essendon and Fremantle, who seem likely to fight over the 4th spot; and Geelong, Hawthorn and Sydney, who are rated as near-certainties.

Fourteen teams are still capable of making the Finals according to the simulations. Seven teams - Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, Geelong, Hawthorn, Richmond and Sydney - are rated 89% chances or higher, leaving the remaining probability to be spread, mostly wafer-like, over the remaining seven. Best-placed amongst those seven are Carlton, rated 65% chances, and Port Adelaide, rated 39% chances.

Adelaide's loss in Round 18 cut their probability of making the Finals from 13% to 6%, while the Eagles' loss to the Dogs cut theirs from 9% to 1%. Given our assessments, none of the teams is currently considered value on the TAB market for the Top 8.