I was curious, as I imagine were many of you but to a less obsessive extent, to understand how next weekend's results will affect the make up and ordering of the final 8.
So, in a fashion similar to that which I used last week, I simulated the last round of the competition, this time using the opening head-to-head TAB Sportsbet markets to set the win probabilities for each game.
The simulation results gave me estimated probabilities for each team's possible final ladder positions.
All that was left for me to do then was to write up the set of match results that would produce each particular finishing ladder position for each team. Which, I admit, sounds like a simple task. After all, it's only one round's results, so how hard could it be?
I'll simply say this: harder than it looked.
Anyway, here's the table with the detail:
(The column headed "Required Results" was the doozy to write up. I'm about 90% confident that this column is correct, but I'll be delirious to hear from you if you think you've found an error.)