As we approach the final round of the home and away season, we look back on what I think is clearly WoSHBODS’ best season by some distance, especially in terms of its ability to predict margins. This week it is tipping five home teams and four away teams to win, all of them favourites, and with the following distribution:
Under 2 goals: 2 games
From 2 to under 4 goals: 4 games
Over 4 goals: 3 games
In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Round 8 and, once again, project the final home-and-away season ladder and the subsequent Finals series.
The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.
Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.
The results this week are as shown below.
Read MoreWoSHBODS tipped eight from nine winners this week, and also recorded a Margin MAE of just 12.6 points per game and a Totals MAE of 11.7 points per game.
Those numbers took its season-long figures to 62 from 90 (68%) for accuracy, 19.8 for Margin MAE, and 17.5 for Totals MAE.
They are highly competitive numbers relative to the two bookmakers’.
Read MoreWoSHBODS has taken:
Western Bulldogs v St Kilda: 3.0% u71.5 @ $1.85
Collingwood v Carlton: 1.0% o68.5 @ $1.85
Brisbane v Sydney: 0.5% o85.5 @ $1.87
WoSHBODS has taken:
Essendon v Richmond: 1.2% u64.5 @ $1.85
WoSHBODS has taken:
Gold Coast v Port Adelaide: 0.1% o76.5 @ $1.87
WoSHBODS has taken:
Hawthorn v Melbourne: 2% o78.5 @ $1.85
Here are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of Round 9, which again include forecast wins by seven away teams. All seven are bookmaker favourites, as are the two home teams that WoSHBODS has tipped as winners.
The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:
Under 2 goals: 4 games
From 2 to under 4 goals: 4 games
Over 4 goals: 1 game
In this blog we’ll record the results of our first attempt this season to project the final home-and-away season ladder and the subsequent Finals series.
The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then so the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.
Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.
Read MoreWoSHBODS tipped only five from nine winners this week, but also recorded a Margin MAE of 15.1 points per game and a Totals MAE of 11 points per game to bolster in its current ability to offer value.
Those numbers took its season-long figures to 54 from 81 (67%) for accuracy (cf, 21.3 for Margin MAE), and 19.1 for Totals MAE.
Read MoreWoSHBODS has taken the following:
Geelong v Brisbane: 1.2% o83.5 @ $1.87
Essendon v North Melbourne: 4.9% u77.5 @ $1.85
Collingwood v Adelaide: 1.5% u73.5 @ $1.87
WoSHBODS has taken the following:
Melbourne v Richmond: 1.9% u72.5 @ $1.87
West Coast v Fremantle: 2.5% u71.5 @ $1.87
WoSHBODS has taken the following:
Sydney v Gold Coast: 1.3% o77.5 @ $1.87
WoSHBODS has taken the following:
Hawthorn v GWS: 3.2% o82.5 @ $1.87
WoSHBODS has taken the following in tonight’s game (with what my Dad would’ve called a ‘just to have an interest’ bet):
Port Adelaide v St Kilda: 0.2% u68.5 @ $1.90
WoSHBODS has taken the following in tonight’s game:
Carlton v Western Bulldogs: 3.7% o60.5 @ $1.87
In this blog we’ll record the results of our first attempt this season to project the final home-and-away season ladder and the subsequent Finals series.
The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then so the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.
Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.
Read MoreWe are, at last, back to nine game rounds where the markets are posted roughly all at once and early in the week, which means that I won’t need to spend time every day from now until Sunday waiting for fresh markets to be put on display, fresh from the oven.
Here are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about those nine games, which include forecast wins by seven away teams. Six of those seven are bookmaker favourites, the exception being Gold Coast, who the bookmakers have installed as 3 to 4 point favourites.
Read MoreWoSHBODS tipped nine from 11 winners this week and also recorded a Margin MAE of 17.8 points per game and a Totals MAE of 20.9 points per game in what can only be described as watershed revisited.
Those numbers took its season-long figures to 49 from 72 (68%) for accuracy, 21.3 for Margin MAE, and 19.1 for Totals MAE.
Read MoreWoSHBODS in interested in two of today’s three games and has taken:
North Melbourne v Sydney: 0.9% u79.5 @ $1.87
GWS v Adelaide: 0.9% u73.5 @ $1.87
… and two more in two games for WoSHBODS:
Brisbane v Gold Coast: 2.1% o76.5 @ $1.90
Fremantle v Carlton: 1.5% u69.5 @ $1.90
I think we all knew that WoSHBODS’ restraint was only ever going to be temporary, and it is, indeed, firing wagers in both of the games for which Totals are up. It has:
Hawthorn v West Coast: 3.1% o77.5 @ $1.87
Richmond v Geelong: 0.2% u73.5 @ $1.87
Just in case you’ve been wondering about the lack of an unders/overs post this week, the reason’s been that WoSHBODS, in stark contrast to last week, has found no value in anything so far on offer.
The estimated overlays in the first four games of the round have been 0.02, 1.7, 1.5, and 0.04 points, which, when assessed at the prices offered, has resulted in -EV in every case.
Perhaps tomorrow …
Week 7 sees us back to an 11 game round, but this will again require me to make regular updates here. So, as per the last few weeks, please come back and visit often.
To begin with, here are WoSHBODS thoughts for the 9 games this week that involve every team only once. I’ll provide the forecasts for the other three games once the teams involved have played their first game of the week and I am able to update their ratings to reflect those results.
Read MoreWoSHBODS tipped just 11 of 12 winners this week and also recorded a Margin MAE of 11.2 points per game and a Totals MAE of 13.8 points per game in what can only be described as a watershed round for the forecaster.
That took its season-long figures to 40 from 61 (66%) for accuracy, 22.0 for Margin MAE, and 18.7 for Totals MAE.
Read MoreWoSHBODS has actually shown a little restraint this morning and passed on one of the games:
Gold Coast v Essendon: no bet (Total offered is 73.5)
Sydney v Geelong: 3% o74.5 @1.87
Again only a TAB market up with about 30 minutes to game time (and dinner on the way), so WoSHBODS has gone with:
Carlton v Brisbane Lions: 6% o62.5 @1.90
With two markets to choose from this time, WoSHBODS has gone with:
West Coast v Port Adelaide: 0.5% o71.5 @1.85
With only about 15 minutes to game time, only the TAB has a Totals market posted. WoSHBODS likes it.
Richmond v Collingwood: 5.2% o52.5 @1.87
Do we? Of course we do:
North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs: 2.0% o64.5 @1.87
Lest you were fretting that WoSHBODS might’ve ignored the opportunity, tonight we have:
Adelaide v St Kilda: 3.4% u74.5 @1.85
Tonight we have:
Melbourne v GWS: 1.2% o78.5 @1.87
Tonight we have:
Hawthorn v Gold Coast: 1.1% o93.5 @1.87
Essendon v Sydney: 0.2% u80.5 @1.85
As I recorded here earlier while on a train between Newcastle and Sydney, tonight we had:
Geelong v Fremantle: 3.7% u80.5 @1.87
Week 6 is the first and only “round” with 12 games in it, which will again require me to make regular updates here. So, as per the last few weeks, please come back and visit often.
To begin with, here are WoSHBODS thoughts for the 9 games this week that involve every team only once. I’ll provide the forecasts for the other three games once the teams involved have played their first game of the week and I am able to update their ratings to reflect those results.
Read MoreWoSHBODS tipped just 5 of 11 winners this week and also recorded a Margin MAE of 24.7 points per game and a Totals MAE of 21.4 points per game.
That took the season-long figures to 29 from 49 (59%) for accuracy, 24.6 for Margin MAE, and 19.9 for Totals MAE.
Read MoreFour more games, three more wagers:
GWS v West Coast: 0.4% of the Fund o77.5 @ $1.87 (rain is forecast, but for the evening, and the estimated overlay is greater than 6 points)
Brisbane v Adelaide: 0.2% of the Fund u82.5 @ $1.87
North Melbourne v Richmond: No bet (offered 70.5)
Port Adelaide v Carlton: 1% of the Fund o67.5 @ $1.85 (no rain forecast)
WoSHBODS continues to like what it sees in the Totals markets and today has opted for:
Collingwood v Gold Coast: 2.5% of the Fund o77.5 @ $1.87
Essendon v Melbourne: 1.4% of the Fund u81.5 @ $1.87
St Kilda v Fremantle: 4.9% of the Fund u76.5 @ $1.90
Western Bulldogs v Sydney: 0.3% of the Fund o77.5 @ $1.85
Both bookmakers are continuing to pursue a just-in-time approach to posting Totals markets, so all we have today is the market for tonight’s game.
To summarise the wagering so far in the round, we have:
(Tuesday) Richmond v Port Adelaide: 2.4% of the Fund u72.5 @ $1.87 (Total Scored: 75. Bet lost)
(Wednesday) Carlton v North Melbourne: No bet (Totals offered: 67.5/68.5. Total Scored: 89)
(Thursday) Geelong v Hawthorn: 0.8% of the Fund o85.5 @ $1.90
Week 5 is another “round” with 11 games in it, which will require me to make regular updates here. So, again, please come back and visit often.
To begin with, here are WoSHBODS thoughts for the 9 games this week that involve every team only once. I’ll provide the forecasts for the other two games once the teams involved have played their first game of the week and I am able to update their ratings to reflect those results.
Read MoreWoSHBODS tipped 8 winners this week and also recorded a Margin MAE of 18.8 points per game and a Totals MAE of 23.3 points per game.
That took the season-long figures to 24 from 38 (63%) for accuracy, 24.6 for Margin MAE, and 19.5 for Totals MAE.
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