It was fairly easy to predict winners in Round 2, but much harder to predict Margins and Totals, which is why WoSHBODS picked 8 of the 9 winners, but ended the round with a 19.9 Margin MAE and a 19.3 Total MAE.

In this blog there are the first ever WoSHBODS simulations for the remainder of the season and for the Finals.

They use the same hot sims methodology that I’ve employed over on the men’s site and that I’ve described in this blog post, with suitably reparameterised negative binomial and beta binomial models for simulating individual game results.

They are also subject to very high levels of uncertainty because they’re based on relatively few historical games, and because the women’s game is developing rapidly and at different paces across teams.

After an excellent start to the 2023 AFLW season, WoSHBODS is back for Week 2 after having made some sizeable changes to individual team ratings, which is its habit now in the early rounds of new seasons.

Back in the dimest of darkest of ages. when I was younger yet less wise, I wagered on men’s AFL for the first time, and, in 2023, I did the same thing on AFLW and emerged with a small profit (despite eschewing my “never bet head-to-head on away teams” ethos.

I’ll definitely take that.

I also emerged with a 16.4 Margin MAE, and a 17.8 Totals MAE, which I will also take.

We’re back again for the 2023 AFLW season with a re-optimised WoSHBODS model and a willingness to put that model to the test against the bookmakers.

WoSHBODS finishes the season with an incorrect tip, an excellent Margin Absolute Error, and a quite large Total Absolute Error.

Below are WoSHBODS’ forecasts for the third week of the AFLW Finals.

Very close to a perfect round from WoSHBODS this week as it tipped both winners and finished with a 2.5 points per game Mean Absolute Error for the Game Margins, and an 11.3 points per game Mean Absolute Error for the Game Totals.

Below are WoSHBODS’ forecasts for the third week of the AFLW Finals.

WoSHBODS tipped both winners this week, one by too little and one by too much, perhaps suggesting that its approach to Venue Performance Values isn’t too outrageous. It finished with a Margin MAE of 15.8 points per game, a Totals MAE of 41.9 points per game (thanks largely to the Roos’ 74 point haul), and yet another positive log probability score, its seventh in succession for a full round.

Below are WoSHBODS’ forecasts for the second week of the AFLW Finals, which again include some margin-expanding Venue Performance Values. Interestingly, it finds the Punt Road venue enhances rather than diminishes the Roos’ chances.

WoSHBODS was definitely too heavy-handed with Venue Performance Values (VPV) this week, ending up with a Margin MAE of 25.4 points per game as a result, but it did tip all four winners and, such was its confidence, also returned a highly positive log probability score. Its Totals MAE was a very respectable 12.5 points per game, although the VPV values used meant the Away Team Score forecasts were relatively poor.

Below are WoSHBODS’ forecasts for the first week of the AFLW Finals.

Another pretty good week for WoSHBODS, with a Margin MAE just above the season average at 19.6 points per game, a Totals MAE of 21.4 points per game, a fifth consecutive positive LPS, and a 7.5 from 9 result on accuracy, all of which has led to the table below.

Below are WoSHBODS’ forecasts for Round 10 of the current AFLW season.

Another solid week for WoSHBODS, with season second-bests for Margin MAE (14.3 points per game), Totals MAE (9.7 points per game), and LPS, and a 7 from 9 result on accuracy, all of which has led to the table below.

Below are WoSHBODS’ forecasts for Round 9 of the current AFLW season.

A very good week for WoSHBODS, with a season low Margin MAE of 13.0 points per game, a Totals MAE of 15.3 points per game, a season high LPS, and the first 9 from 9 result on accuracy, all of which has led to the table below.

Below are WoSHBODS’ forecasts for Round 8 of the current AFLW season.

Another fairly good week from WoSHBODS, with a Margin MAE of 18.8 points per game, a Totals MAE of 12.1 points per game, a hugely positive LPS, and a 7 from 9 result on accuracy, all of which has led to the table below.