AFLW 2025 - Round 10
/According to the bookmakers, Round 9 of the AFLW comprises:
Four games expected to be decided by less than or about two goals
Three games expected to be decided by between two and just over three goals
Two game expected to be decided by about four-and-a-half to five goals
Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which sees all nine favourites winning, six of them by a larger margin than forecast by the bookmakers.
The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 15.5 points per game, while WoSHBODS’ is about 21 points per game.
Here’s some detail about WoSHBODS’ views:
WoSHBODS Wagering
At right is the table showing what Investors wanted and what they secured this week, which shows moderate levels of shenanigans, peaking with the Dogs’ breakfast of line wagers.
In aggregate, WoSHBODS has seven head-to-head wagers this week, in sizes ranging from 0.5% to 6.4% of the original Head-to-Head Fund and totalling just under 21% of that Fund.
It also has line wagers in eight games, in sizes ranging from 0.3% to 5.2% of the original Line Fund and totalling just under 20% of that Fund.
Combined, that means that again around 18% of the entire Combined Portfolio is at risk this weekend. Investors’ money is nothing if not well-exercised this season.
We can see how that risk is spread across games and teams by referring to the Ready Reckoner below.
By far the most important result for Investors this weekend will be that for the Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast game. A Dogs win by 22 points or more will add 3.2c to the price of the Combined Portfolio, while a loss of any size will lop 4.9c off the price of the Combined Portfolio.
That’s over a 9c swing. The swing for that, and for the other games, are as follows:
Western Bulldogs (v Gold Coast): 8.1c swing
North Melbourne (v Adelaide): 5.8c swing
PortAdelaide (v Hawthorn): 5.7c swing
Melbourne (v Sydney): 5.4c swing
Brisbane (v Essendon): 2.8c swing
Fremantle (v GWS): 2.5c swing
StKilda (v Carlton): 1.5c swing
West Coast (v Geelong): 0.6c swing
Altogether, as noted, about 18% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk across all 15 wagers, and a best case set of results would see that risk rewarded by a lift in the Portfolio price of just under 15c.