AFLW 2023 - Round 11 - Unders/Overs
/UPDATE 10:15AM SUNDAY
Investors are, again, on the overs in the second game today
UPDATE 11:15AM SATURDAY
Investors are on the overs in the second game today
AFLW 2023 - Round 11
/It’s wall-to-wall favourites for WoSHBODS this week, and all of them forecast to win by larger margins than the markets think.
Read MoreAFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 10
/WoSHBODS, broadly speaking, orders the remaining teams in terms of Flag chances, as follows:
40%: Melbourne
20-30%: Adelaide and North Melbourne
10%: Brisbane
0.5-1%: Gold Coast, Geelong
Essentially 0%: Essendon, Sydney
AFLW Round 10 Results - Regression Squared
/WoSHBODS tipped just 6 winners this week, and recorded a Margin MAE of 29.6 points per game and a Totals MAE of 20 points per game. That took it to a season long 73% accuracy, 18.5 Margin MAE, and 18.9 Totals MAE.
Read MoreAFLW 2023 - Round 10 - Unders/Overs
/UPDATE 12 NOON SUNDAY
Two unders bets today to complete the dance card.
UPDATE 12:55PM SATURDAY
Four bets today - two unders and two overs - and there would have been a fifth, another overs, but for the Brisbane forecast.
AFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 9
/Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).
So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:
Tier 1 (100% chances to play Finals and 99%+ for Top 4): Adelaide, Melbourne, andNorth Melbourne
Tier 2 (99%+ chances to play Finals): Brisbane
Tier 3 (85-90% chances to play Finals and 25-50% chances of Top 4): Essendon and Gold Coast
Tier 4 (90% chances to play Finals and 0% chances of Top 4): Geelong
Tier 5 (40-50% chances to play Finals): Collingwood, St Kilda, and Sydney
Tier 6 (<2% chances to play Finals): Fremantle, Carlton, and Richmond
Tier 7 (0% chances to play Finals): Hawthorn, GWS, West Coast, Port Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs
AFLW 2023 - Round 10
/WoSHBODS’ is tipping only one upset again this week, this time the Dockers over the Swans.
It expects:
Adelaide (74) to be the highest scoring team
West Coast (7) to be the lowest scoring team
Brisbane v Melbourne (105) to be the highest scoring game
Collingwood v Richmond (66) to be the lowest scoring game
It also expects 4 home teams to win, and 6.6 favourites.
Read MoreAFLW Round 9 Results - Redressed
/WoSHBODS tipped 7 winners this week, and recorded a Margin MAE of 19 points per game and a Totals MAE of 10.4 points per game. That took it to a season long 74% accuracy, 17.2 Margin MAE, and 18.8 Totals MAE.
Read MoreAFLW 2023 - Round 9 - Unders/Overs
/UPDATE 12 NOON SUNDAY
Two overs bets today - one in the first game, and one in the last.
UPDATE 12 NOON SATURDAY
Just the one bet today - an unders on the Essendon v Carlton game
(We would have been on the overs in last night’s game were it not for the forecast of rain.)
AFLW 2023 - Round 9
/WoSHBODS’ is tipping only one upset this week as it finds itself with a very different opinion about the relative abilities of the Eagles and the Dogs.
It expects:
Melbourne (68) to be the highest scoring team
Fremantle (23) to be the lowest scoring team
Gold Coast v GWS (94) to be the highest scoring game
Adelaide v North Melbourne (68) to be the lowest scoring game
It also expects 4.5 home teams to win, and 7.1 favourites.
Read MoreAFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 8
/Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).
So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:
Tier 1 (100% chances to play Finals and 90%+ for Top 4): Adelaide, Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Brisbane
Tier 2 (90%+ chances to play Finals): Collingwood and Gold Coast
Tier 3 (75-80% chances to play Finals): Essendon and Geelong
Tier 4 (15-25% chances to play Finals): Carlton, Richmond, and Sydney
Tier 5 (2-7% chances to play Finals): St Kilda and Fremantle
Tier 6 (0% chances to play Finals): Hawthorn, GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast, and Western Bulldogs
AFLW Round 8 Results - Regressed
/WoSHBODS tipped only 4 winners this week, and recorded a Margin MAE of 21.9 points per game and a Totals MAE of 17.4 points per game in what can only be described as a textbook regression towards the mean. That took it to a season long 73% accuracy, 17.0 Margin MAE, and 19.8 Totals MAE.
Read MoreAFLW 2023 - Round 8 - Unders/Overs
/UPDATE 1:30PM SUNDAY
WoSHBODS has taken the unders in the Fremantle game (and would have taken the overs in the Collingwood game but for the forecast of showers)
UPDATE 12:30PM SATURDAY
WoSHBODS has taken two overs bets today.
UPDATE 6:45PM FRIDAY
WoSHBODS has taken u77.5 in tonight’s game
AFLW 2023 - Round 8
/WoSHBODS’ is tipping one (or maybe two) upsets this week: Geelong to narrowly beat Collingwood, and Adelaide to beat Brisbane, which is only an upset according to Sportsbet.
It expects:
Gold Coast (63) to be the highest scoring team
West Coas (23) to be the lowest scoring team
Western Bulldogs v Sydney (100) to be the highest scoring game
Hawthorn v Richmond (67) to be the lowest scoring game
It also expects 3.8 home teams to win, and 6.4 favourites.
Read MoreAFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 7
/Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).
So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:
Tier 1 (100% chances to play Finals and 99%+ for Top 4): Adelaide, Melbourne, and North Melbourne
Tier 2 (90%+ chances to play Finals and 25-35% for Top 4): Essendon, Brisbane, and Gold Coast
Tier 3 (65-80% chances to play Finals and 5-10% for Top 4): Geelong and Collingwood
Tier 4 (40% chances to play Finals): Carlton
Tier 5 (10-20% chances to play Finals): St Kilda and Richmond
Tier 6 (<5% chances to play Finals): Sydney, Fremantle, and Hawthorn
Tier 7 (0% chances to play Finals): GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast, and Western Bulldogs
AFLW Round 7 Results - Best
/WoSHBODS tipped all 9 winners this week, and recorded a Margin MAE of only 10.1 points per game and a Totals MAE of 17.6 points per game. That took it to a season long 78% accuracy, 16.3 Margin MAE, and 20.2 Totals MAE. I’m not sure that a reasonable person could hope for much better than this at this point in the season, given the inherent variability in AFLW performances.
Read MoreAFLW 2023 - Round 7 - Unders/Overs
/UPDATE 11:15AM SUNDAY
Just one unders wager from WoSHBODS today.
UPDATE 12 NOON SATURDAY
Just one unders and one overs wager from WoSHBODS today.
UPDATE 12 NOON FRIDAY
WoSHBODS has taken the unders on tonight’s game.
AFLW 2023 - Round 7
/WoSHBODS’ is again tipping two upsets this week: Hawthorn to beat Sydney, and Essendon to beat Richmond. Both are expected to be very narrow victories.
It expects:
Melbourne (86) to be the highest scoring team
Port Adelaide (13) to be the lowest scoring team
West Coast v Melbourne (99) to be the highest scoring game
Richmond v Essendon (64) to be the lowest scoring game
It also expects 5.0 home teams to win, and 7.0 favourites.
Read MoreAFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 6
/Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).
So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:
Tier 1 (99%+ chances to play Finals and 98% for Top 4): Adelaide, Melbourne, and North Melbourne
Tier 2 (95%+ chances to play Finals and 50% for Top 4): Gold Coast
Tier 3 (80-85% chances to play Finals and 15-20% for Top 4): Essendon and Brisbane
Tier 4 (50-70% chances to play Finals): Carlton, Geelong, and Collingwood
Tier 5 (15-30% chances to play Finals): Richmond, St Kilda, and Sydney
Tier 6 (5% chances to play Finals): Fremantle
Tier 6 (Less than 0.1% chances to play Finals): and Hawthorn, GWS, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and West Coast
AFLW Round 6 Results - Better
/WoSHBODS tipped 6 from 9 winners again this week, and recorded a Margin MAE of only 13.3 points per game and a Totals MAE of 18.3 points per game. That took it to a season long 74% accuracy, 17.4 Margin MAE, and 20.6 Totals MAE.
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