AFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 9

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Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).

So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:

  • Tier 1 (100% chances to play Finals and 99%+ for Top 4): Adelaide, Melbourne, andNorth Melbourne

  • Tier 2 (99%+ chances to play Finals): Brisbane

  • Tier 3 (85-90% chances to play Finals and 25-50% chances of Top 4): Essendon and Gold Coast

  • Tier 4 (90% chances to play Finals and 0% chances of Top 4): Geelong

  • Tier 5 (40-50% chances to play Finals): Collingwood, St Kilda, and Sydney

  • Tier 6 (<2% chances to play Finals): Fremantle, Carlton, and Richmond

  • Tier 7 (0% chances to play Finals): Hawthorn, GWS, West Coast, Port Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs

The big movers this week in terms of Finals chances were:

  • St Kilda: +35% points (to 41%)

  • Sydney: +34% points (to 47%)

  • Essendon: +15% points (to 91%)

  • Geelong: +11% points (to 89%)

  • Collingwood: -48% points (to 43%)

  • Carlton: -23% points (to 2%)

  • Richmond: -18% points (to 0.5%)

And, here’s what we now have for the Finals.

The Flag remains mostly a race in three between Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Adelaide, with Melbourne still the clear favourite.

That’s a sentiment broadly shared by the markets, albeit that they still rate Brisbane higher.

They also rate Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood, Essendon, and St Kilda as much higher chances, albeit still only about 2% or less.