AFLW Round 9 Results - Redressed

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WoSHBODS tipped 7 winners this week, and recorded a Margin MAE of 19 points per game and a Totals MAE of 10.4 points per game. That took it to a season long 74% accuracy, 17.2 Margin MAE, and 18.8 Totals MAE.

We can, as usual, review WoSHBODS’ Accuracy and MAE by subdividing games based on the final margin, which we do in the table at right.

It shows that WoSHBODS is now 49 from 54 in games that have been won by 2 goals or more, but also that its MAE is only 13.3 points per game across all the games won by under 3 goals.

In games won by less than 2 goals, WoSHBODS is only 11 from 27 in terms of accuracy.

We can also look at how WoSHBODS has performed on a team-by-team basis, firstly in terms of MAE, which we do in the table at left.

It shows that the final margins in games involving Hawthorn, GWS, Fremantle, or Adelaide have been very well forecast - generally within about 13 points of the actual margin - while those in games involving Brisbane, Gold Coast, West Coast, or Western Bulldogs have been less well forecast and in error by as much as 4 or more goals.

Overall, game margins have been forecast with an MAE of just over 17 points per team per game, which remains entirely acceptable.


We can also review how well WoSHBODS has estimated the victory probabilities of each team by looking at the log probability score recorded in those games in which they were involved, which we do in the table at right.

It reveals that WoSHBODS has done well at estimating win probabilities for games involving Melbourne, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, or GWS, and less well at games involving Brisbane, St Kilda, Collingwood, Essendon, or West Coast. For those five teams, LPSs have actually been negative.

Overall, however, a positive LPS has been recorded for 13 of the 18 teams.




WAGERING

On wagering, Investors recorded their second-largest single-round return this week, falling short of recording their largest because of a disappointing set of Sunday results.

Nonetheless, the Combined Portfolio finished up by almost 6c on the round, as all three Funds returned green ink (albeit the Head-to-Head Fund only narrowly). That left the Combined Portfolio up by 17.3c on the season, that from a +21% ROI on a 0.84 turn.

Overs/Unders betting aside, which accounts for only 5% of the Combined Portfolio, we can review the wagering performance of the two main Funds by making separate calculations for home versus away status, and favouritism versus underdog status, which we do in the table at right.

Line betting on away teams remains attractively lucrative, as does head-to-head betting on anything but away team favourites.

TEAM DASHBOARD

In the latest Ranking on Dashboard Metrics chart, the metric rankings currently most highly correlated with the competition ladder rankings are:

  • MoS Win Production Function: +0.98

  • Scoring Shots Conceded: +0.91

  • Points Conceded: +0.9

  • Goals Conceded: +0.88

  • % of Quarters Won: +0.88

  • Q4 Performances: +0.86

  • Own Points Scored: +0.86

  • Own Goals Scored: +0.85

  • Own Scoring Shots: +0.82

The metric least correlated is:

  • Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.35

And, lastly, below is the full extended version of the Team Dashboard.

It shows, among other things, that Adelaide have lost only 8 quarters all season, and that GWS has won only eight. It also shows that Melbourne have generated over 12 more scoring shots than their opponents across entire games, including 5 more of them per game in Q4s. They have a 815 percentage in that quarter.

Geelong have now scored 36% of their points in Q1s, and conceded only 8%. Collingwood have conceded 40% of their points in Q4s, Carlton 36%, and GWS 34%. Melbourne have conceded 34% of their points in Q3s but only 11% in Q4s. Collingwood have also only scored 9% of their points in Q4s.

Hawthorn have still yet to win a Q1, and Adelaide are yet to lose a Q3 (where their percentage is 596). Melbourne are yet to lose a Q4.

Geelong also have a Q1 percentage of 579, and North Melbourne a Q4 percentage of 251.

GWS have a Q4 percentage of 27, but 97 in Q3s., while Collingwood has a Q1 percentage of 244, but a Q4 of just 21.