AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 3

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This year’s post Round 3 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 85% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: roughly 99% chances of being finalists; around 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Carlton and Brisbane: roughly 90% chances of being finalists; around 50% chances of Top 4; roughly <0.5-3% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Geelong and Sydney: roughly 75-80% chances of being finalists; around 25-35% chances of Top 4; roughly <0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and Hawthorn: around 55-60% chance of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Fremantle and Richmond: around 25-30% chance of being finalists; around 3-4% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Adelaide and Gold Coast: around 10-20% chance of being finalists; around 1-2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. GWS, Essendon, Collingwood, and West Coast: around 1-5% chance of being finalists; <0.5%% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. St Kilda: <0.5% chance of being finalists; <0.5%% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have 11 teams with about or better than a 1-in-4 chance of finishing Top 8, and nine with about or better than a 1-in-7 chance of finishing Top 4.

WINS AND LADDER FINISHES

In the table below we look at the average ladder finish for each team for a given number of home and away wins.

We see that:

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 8th for most teams for 7 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 4th for most teams for for 8.5 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 2nd for most teams for 10.5 wins

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.70)

  • Melbourne (about $6.5)

  • Brisbane (about $10)

  • Carlton (about $14)

  • Geelong (about $51)

  • Sydney (about $70)

  • Hawthorn (about $76)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $110)

  • Port Adelaide (about $135)

  • Adelaide (about $220)

  • Fremantle (about $420)

  • Richmond (about $550)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

The following plot shows how likely it is that any two consecutive ladder positions will be decided based on percentages.

So, our current estimates are very close to last week’s:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 1-in-6 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (steady at 17%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 4-in-9 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up to 44% from 43%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s still about a 1-in-2 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (down to 49% from 50%)