2026 - Round 18 : Time to Rebound

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Another nine games this week, with six expected to be decided by three goals or less, one by about six goals, one by just under seven goals, and the last by about 10 goals.

Seven of them have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 27.1 points per game, and two have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 11 points. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 23.5 points per game, about four points higher than last week’s average.

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2026 - Team Ratings After Round 17

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of 11 teams this week, including moving Sydney into 3rd ahead of the elevated Lions and the demoted Hawks, making its Top 3 now Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.

Further down the order, the multi-spot movers were Melbourne (up 3 into 6th), and Carlton (down 3 into 10th, despite winning).

MARS rerated only nine teams, also moving Sydney into 3rd ahead of an elevated Lions and demoted Hawks, making its Top 3 also Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.

Its multi-spot movers, apart from Hawthorn were Melbourne (up 2 into 7th), Collingwood (up 3 into 9th), St Kilda (up 2 into 11th), Carlton (down 3 into 10th), Western Bulldogs (down 2 into 12th), and Gold Coast (down 2 into 13th).

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2026 - Round 17 Results - Could Be Worse, Could Be Better

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Just five of the nine early-week favourites secured the four points this round, which led to every Head-to-Head Tipster recording five from nine except Home Sweet Home, who managed only two.

That left Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear still tied for first and now on 107.5 from 144 (75%) with MARS_Marg still in outright 3rd and back on 104.5.

The all-Tipster average score came in at 4.8 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 100.7 from 144 (70%).

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2026 - Round 17 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SATURDAY 3:45PM

MoSHPlay has finished at Suns by 5 points


UPDATE SATURDAY 1PM

MoSHPlay has finished at Hawks by 27 points

UPDATE FRIDAY 10:30PM

MoSHPlay has updated preliminary forecasts for the Sunday games

UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM

MoSHPlay has finished at the Cats by 12 points for tonight’s game and has preliminary views for the remainder of games in the round

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 10PM

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow night’s game is Cats by 12 points

2026 - Round 17 : A Lot More Action

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We’re spoiled with a return to a full round of nine games this week, with six expected to be decided by three goals or less, two by about four-and-a-half goals, and one by about six goals.

Five of them have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 13.1 points per game, and four have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of 26.8 points. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 19.2 points per game, about one-point-and-a-half below last week’s average.

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2026 - Team Ratings After Round 16

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of eight teams this week, but none in the top 2 or the bottom 4. One of the changes was to move Hawthorn ahead of Sydney into 3rd, making its Top 3 now Fremantle, Geelong, and Hawthorn.

Further down the order, the only multi-spot mover was Port Adelaide (up 3 into 11th).

MARS rerated 12 teams to arrive at a Top 3 that matches MoSHBODS’.

Its multi-spot movers were Carlton (up 3 into 7th), and Gold Coast (down 4 into 11th).

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2026 - Round 16 Results - Not Without Merit

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For yet another week, six of the seven early-week favourites, but this time Bookie Knows Best, ENS_Linear, MARS_Marg and the MoS twins all recorded that score, bettered only by the still-last-placed Home Sweet Home.

That all meant that Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear retained their three tip lead over the field. They are now on 102.5 from 135 (76%) with MARS_Marg now in outright 3rd and back on 99.5.

The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.8 from 7, taking the season-long figure to 95.9 from 135 (71%).

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2026 - Round 16 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 7PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has ended at Crows by 15 points

UPDATE 10:30PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay has an updated preliminary forecast for the final game of the round.

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s is staying with Lions by 2 points for tonight’s game and now has preliminary views on the remaining games in the round.

UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow night’s game is Lions by 2 points

2026 - Round 16 : A Little More Action

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Another round of seven games this week, with four expected to be decided by about three goals or less, one by about four-and-a-half goals, another by five goals, and the last by six goals.

Six of them have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 21.2 points per game, and just one has an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of 17.5 points. Across all seven games, the average expected margin is 20.6 points per game, more than double last week’s average.

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2026 - Team Ratings After Round 15

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of eight teams this week, but none in the top 6 or the bottom 5. Its Top 3 remain Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.

Further down the order, the multi-spot movers were Carlton (up 4 into 7th), St Kilda (down 3 into 10th), Western Bulldogs (up 2 into 11th), and Gold Coast (down 2 into 12th)

MARS also kept its top 6 and bottom 5 unchanged, leaving Geelong, Fremantle, and Sydney as its Top 3.

Its multi-spot movers were Carlton (up 3 into 10th), GWS (down 2 into 9th), and Collingwood (down 2 into 12th).

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2026 - Round 15 Results - Nothing Noteworthy

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Once again, six of the seven early-week favourites won this week, but Bookie Knows Best, ENS_Linear, and RSMP_Weighted were the only Head-to-Head Tipsters recording that score, which allowed Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear to take a three tip lead over the field. They are now on 96.5 from 128 (75%) with MARS_Marg and RSMP_Weighted three tips further back on 93.5.

The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.1 from 7, taking the season-long figure to 90.2 from 128 (70%).

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2026 - Round 15 : MoSHBODS = Bookmaker (approx.)

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Just seven games again this week but with all seven expected to be decided by three goals or less.

Five of them have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 10.5 points per game, and two have away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 9.5 points per game. Across all seven games, the average expected margin is a paltry 10.2 points per game.

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2026 - Team Ratings After Round 14

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of seven teams this week, but none in the top 4, which remain Fremantle, Geelong, Sydney, and Hawthorn.

Further down the order, the multi-spot movers were Melbourne (up 2 into 8th), Carlton (up 2 into 11th), and Western Bulldogs (down 4 into 13th)

MARS moved eight teams, which included swapping Geelong back into 1st, ahead of Fremantle. The only multi-spot mover was Western Bulldogs (down 2 into 11th).

Its final Top 3 are Geelong, Fremantle, and Sydney.

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2026 - Round 14 Results - Solid

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Six of the seven early-week favourites won this week, which meant that the five non-contrarian Head-to-Head Tipsters scored six, leaving the RSMP twins and Consult the Ladder to score five, and Home Sweet Home four.

That left Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear as joint-leaders, now on 91 from 121 (75%) and still two tips ahead of MARS_Marg, with RSMP_Weighted now one tip further back in outright fourth.

The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.4 from 7, taking the season-long figure to 85.1 from 121 (70%).

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2026 - Round 14 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 250PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay has finished on Saints by 5 points.

UPDATE 1240PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay has finished on Lions by 48 points.

UPDATE 1230PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has finished on Dees by 33 points.


UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay has finished on Dogs by 5 points and now has preliminary views on the remaining games in the round

UPDATE 730PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of the Thursday night game is Dogs by 5 points