2026 - Round 24 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE WEDNESDAY 10:45PM
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow night’s game has the Saints winning by 14 points.
2026 - Round 24 : Overs/Unders
/It’s been quite the week to be a football followers and punter. I’ll make no comment on the specifics of the Swans situation, but simply report the wagering market fact that the Swans have moved from about 5-goal favourites to 1-goal underdogs, as you’ll see in the table below.
As I type this there is no Totals market up on the TAB for the Swans’ game so I’ve just assumed it’s the same as the Sportsbet market.
With all that by way of background, MoSHBODS’ average total this week is almost a goal less than the bookmakers’, with differences in the 9 to 12 point range for three of the games. In only two of the games is the MoSHBODS projected total higher than the bookmakers’.
The average absolute difference between MoSHBODS’ and the TAB’s expected margins is 4.9 points per game and between MoSHBODS’ and Sportsbet’s expected margins is 5.0 points per game.
Read More2026 - Round 24 : Running Dead?
/This week we have five games expected to be decided by about two to three goals, one game by about three-and-a-half goals, two games by about six to six-and-a-half goals, and the remaining game by about ten goals.
Five games have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 28.7 points per game, and four have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of 22.3 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 25.8 points per game.
Again this week, a lack of knowledge about teams’ underlying motivations leaves us vulnerable as forecasters and punters.
Read More2026 - Team Ratings After Round 23
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of eight teams this week, flipping four pairs of teams, including flipping Geelong into 2nd ahead of Sydney. That left a Top 3 of Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.
Their were no multi-spot movers.
MARS also reranked only six teams, flipping three pairs, but nothing in the Top 5, leaving it also with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.
Their were no multi-spot movers.
Read More2026 - Round 23 Results - Return to Form
/Eight of the nine early-week favourites won this week (actually eight won and two drew), and with contrarian behaviour at a minimum, only Home Sweet Home scored anything less than that eight. That left Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear atop the Head-to-Head Tipsters’ Leaderboard, and now on 150.5 from 198 (76%), five tips clear of MARS_Marg and RSMP_Weighted.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 7.6 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 141.2 from 198 (71%).
Read More2026 - Round 23 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 7:00PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay has ended at Hawks by 11 points
UPDATE 10:30PM FRIDAY
Update on MoSHPlay’s preliminary views about the remaining games in the round
UPDATE 10PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay has preliminary views about all the games in the round
2026 - Round 23 : Overs/Unders
/MoSHBODS’ average total this week is about the same as the bookmakers’, although fpur of the single game absolute differences are in the 6.4 to 7.4 point range. The average absolute difference between MoSHBODS’ and the TAB’s expected margins is 0.3 points per game and between MoSHBODS’ and Sportsbet’s expected margins is 1.0 points per game
MoSHBODS is forecasting higher totals than both bookmakers in five games, and a lower total than bookmakers in four games.
Read More2026 - Round 23 : Motivated?
/This week we have just two games expected to be decided by about two goals or less, four by about three-and-a-half to four goals, two by about five goals, and the last two by about ten goals.
Three games have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 22.2 points per game, and six have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 16.7 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 18.5 points per game.
One of the perils of tipping (and wagering) at this point in the season without knowledge of the selected teams, is that this absence is exacerbated by a similar lack of knowledge about the underlying motivation levels of the players that are selected.
Read More2026 - Team Ratings After Round 22
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of 10 teams this week, including flipping Sydney up into 2nd and Hawthorn down into 5th leaving a Top 3 of Fremantle, Sydney, and Geelong.
The only other multi-spot mover was Adelaide (down 2 into 8th).
MARS also rerated 10 teams, including moving Sydney into 3rd and Brisbane Lions into 4th, and slipping Hawthorn down into 5th to leave it with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.
Hawthorn and Brisbane Lions were its only multi-spot movers.
Read More2026 - Round 22 Results - And Again
/Six of the nine early-week favourites won this week, but only Bookie Knows Best, ENS_Linear, and MoSHBODS_Marg registered six correct tips, which left Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear atop the Head-to-Head Tipsters’ Leaderboard, and now on 142.5 from 189 (75%), five tips clear of MARS_Marg and RSMP_Weighted.
Every other Tipster scored five from from, which meant the all-Tipster average score came in at 5.3 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 133.6 from 189 (71%).
Read More2026 - Round 22 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SATURDAY 12:30PM
MoSHPlay has finished at Giants by 18 points.
UPDATE SATURDAY 3:30PM
MoSHPlay has finished at Swans by 35 points.
UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay is staying with Lions by 5 points and now has fresh preliminary views about the Sunday games.
UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM
MoSHPlay is staying with Dogs by 15 points and now has preliminary views about the remaining games in the round.
UPDATE WEDNESDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of the Thursday night game is Dogs by 15 points
2026 - Round 22 : Overs/Unders
/MoSHBODS’ average total this week is about the same as the bookmakers’, although three of the single game absolute differences are in the 5 to 10 point range. The average absolute difference between MoSHBODS’ and the bookmakers’ expected margins is 0.5 points per game.
MoSHBODS is forecasting higher totals than both bookmakers in three games, and a lower total than bookmakers in six games, although by only about half-a-point in three of those.
Read More2026 - Round 22 : More Circumspect
/This week we have five games expected to be decided by about three goals or less, one by about three-and-a-half goals, one by almost six goals, and the last two by about nine or ten goals.
Six games have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 31.5 points per game, and three have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 10.8 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 24.6 points per game.
Read More2026 - Team Ratings After Round 21
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of only seven teams again this week, including flipping Sydney into 4th ahead of Brisbane Lions but moving none of the Top 3 teams, which remain Fremantle, Hawthorn, and Geelong.
The only multi-spot movers were Carlton (up 3 into 9th) and Port Adelaide (down 2 into 13th).
MARS again rerated 11 teams, including moving Geelong into 2nd ahead of Hawthorn to leave it with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Geelong, and Hawthorn.
Its multi-spot movers were Carlton (up 3 into 9th, Brisbane Lions (down 2 into 6th), and St Kilda (down 3 into 12th).
Read More2026 - Round 21 Results - And Slide ...
/Eight of the nine early-week favourites won this week, which meant that contrarian tipping was mostly punished and that Bookie Knows Best joined ENS_Linear atop the Head-to-Head Tipsters’ Leaderboard, now on 136.5 from 180 (76%). MARS_Marg and RSMP_Weighted remain in joint third, four back on 132.5 (74%).
The outlying scores were sixes from the MoS twins and Consult the Ladder, and a four from Home Sweet Home.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.4 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 128.3 from 180 (71%).
Read More2026 - Round 21 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE FRIDAY 10:15PM
MoSHPlay has fresh preliminary views about the Sunday games.
UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay is sticking with Geelong by 7 points and now has preliminary views about the rest of the round.
UPDATE WEDNESDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow night’s game is Geelong by 7 points.
2026 - Round 21 : Overs/Unders
/MoSHBODS’ average total this week is, remarkably, just over the bookmakers’, and the game-by-game absolute differences range from 0 to 7.1 points. The average absolute difference between MoSHBODS’ and the TAB’s expected margins is 1.4 points per game, and between MoSHBODS’ and Sportsbet’s expected margins is 1.6 points per game.
MoSHBODS is forecasting higher totals than both bookmakers in seven games, and a lower total than bookmakers in one game.
Read More2026 - Round 21 : Over Confident?
/This week we again have five games expected to be decided by about two goals or less, one by about four goals, two by about five to five-and-a-half goals, and one by about seven-and-a-half goals.
Only three games have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 22.2 points per game, and six have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 14.3 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 16.9 points per game, which is about 7 points lower than last week’s average.
Read More2026 - Team Ratings After Round 20
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of only six teams this week, flipping three pairs of teams including putting Geelong into 2nd ahead of Hawthorn.
MARS rerated eight teams, flipping four pairs, including moving Hawthorn into 3rd.
That left both Systems with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Geelong, and Hawthorn.
Read More2026 - Round 20 Results - It Started Well
/Seven of the nine early-week favourites won this week, but there was enough contrarian tipping for five of the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week to record eight, including ENS_Linear, who is now the outright leader on 129.5 from 171 (76%). Bookie Knows Best sits outright second on 128.5 (75%) ahead of MARS_Marg and RSMP_Weighted on 125.5.
The outlying scores were sevens from Bookie Knows Best, MARS_Marg, and Consult the Ladder, and a five from Home Sweet Home.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 7.3 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 121.8 from 171 (71%).
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