2026 - Round 11 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay has ended at Hawks by 17 points, and now has preliminary views on the rest of the round.
UPDATE WEDNESDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of the Thursday night game is the Hawks by 17 points.
2026 - Round 11 : Overs/Unders
/MoSHBODS’ average total this week is about as close to the bookmakers’ as it has been all season, despite individual forecasts being over 10 points different in two of the nine games.
The Thursday Hawthorn v Adelaide game is particularly interesting as MoSHBODS is predicting a final Total more than two goals higher than the bookmakers', despite the weather forecast portending no precipitation.
Read More2026 - Round 11 : Targeted
/This week’s nine games (and the last of nine game rounds until Round 17) includes seven that are expected to be decided by less than three goals, one that is expected to be decided by about three-and-a-half goals, and one more that is expected to be decided by just over seven goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is only 15.7 points per game.
There are six home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 17.5 points per game, and three away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 12.2 points per game.
Read More2026 - Team Ratings After Round 10
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of 11 teams this week, which included swapping Geelong into 1st from 3rd, and Hawthorn into 3rd from 1st. The two other multi-spot moves were Adelaide up 3 places into 7th, and Western Bulldogs down 2 places into 9th.
Its Top 3 are now Cats, Swans, and Hawks.
MARS also moved 11 teams, with the only multi-spot movers being Melbourne up 2 into 9th, and Western Bulldogs down 3 into 10th.
Its Top 3 are now Cats, Swans, and Lions, with the Hawks in 4th.
Read More2026 - Round 10 Results - Mixed Fortunes
/In sharp contrast to last week where all nine favourites took the four points, this week only five of them did.
However, with Home Sweet Home the lone contrarian Head-to-Head Tipster, that meant little for the Leaderboard, which still sees Bookie Knows Best co-leading with ENS_Linear and now on 71 from 90 (78%), one tip ahead of MARS_Marg, and a further tip ahead of the RSMP twins.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.2 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 66.6 from 90 (74%).
Read More2026 - Round 10 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 715PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay is staying with Swans by 25 points but now has Suns by 28 points and has new preliminary views on the Sunday games.
UPDATE 715PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay has preliminary views on the rest of the round.
UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay ends at Lions by 8 points.
UPDATE 715PM WEDNESDAY
MoSHPlay currently has it as Lions by 9 points in the Thursday game.
2026 - Round 10 : Overs/Unders
/If MoSHBODS won’t go the bookmakers …
MoSHBODS’ average total this week is only two points below the bookmakers’, but that’s come about from the latter lowering their expectations to 181 points per game, down a full goal per game on last week. MoSHBODS is actually forecasting a higher score than the bookmakers in three games, albeit that two of those might be slightly rain-affected.
Read More2026 - Round 10 : Subdued
/This week’s nine games includes four that are expected to be decided by about 20 points or less, three more that are expected to be decided by between about 20 and 30 points, and two more that are expected to be decided by about six or seven goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 26.1 points per game.
There are only four away favourites with an average expected victory margin of 25 points per game, and five home team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 26.9 points per game.
Read More2026 - Team Ratings After Round 9
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of just six teams this week, all of them in the top half, which left it with a Top 3 of Hawthorn, Sydney, and Geelong. Geelong, who rose two places, were the only team to move by more than a single spot.
MARS moved 10 teams, including four by two spots, and finished with a Top 3 of Sydney, Geelong, and Hawthorn.
Read More2026 - Round 9 Results - All The Favourites
/Although, by definition, it is always the most likely single outcome, it is nevertheless very unlikely that all nine early-week pre-game favourites are successful, but that is what we saw this week. Roughly, based on the TAB bookmaker’s own estimates, the pre-round probability of this was about 4.4% or 1 in 23.
That result was, of course, good for Bookie Knows Best, which remains co-leader of the Head-to-Head Tipsters with ENS_Linear and now on 66 from 81 (81%). They are one tip ahead of MARS_Marg, and a further tip ahead of the RSMP twins.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 7.9 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 61.4 from 81 (76%).
Read More2026 - Round 9 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 12:45PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Dees by 41 points.
UPDATE 6:55PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Suns by 11 and Cats by 7 points.
UPDATE 415PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay has some updated preliminary views on the Sunday games.
UPDATE 730PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay has finished with the Hawks by a semi-behind, and now has preliminary views on all other games in the round.
UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY
MoSHPlay currently has the Thursday night game as the Hawks by a semi-behind.
2026 - Round 9 : Overs/Unders
/The rate at which MoSHBODS changes its base team scoring assumption over time has been optimised using roughly the last decade of scoring data. That methodology has seen MoSHBODS increase its base assumption by about 0.5 point per team or 1 point a game across the course of 2026. That rate of adjustment is feeling a little pedestrian at the moment.
Possible evidence for this is that, this week, MoSHBODS is, on average 8-points per game lower in its average totals forecast compared to the bookmakers, and that MoSHBODS’ forecasts are below those of the bookmakers in all nine games considered individually.
Read More2026 - Round 9 : Dogs are Dogs (according to MoSHBODS)
/This week’s nine games includes four that are expected to be decided by about two goals or less, one that’s expected to be decided by about four goals, and four more that are expected to be decided by between about five-and-a-half and seven-and-a-half goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 23.6 points per game.
There are only three away favourites with an average expected victory margin of 20.2 points per game, and six home team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 25.3 points per game.
Read More2026 - Team Ratings After Round 8
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of just seven teams this week, none of them by more than a single spot, which left it with a Top 3 still of Sydney, Hawthorn, and Brisbane Lions.
MARS moved only six teams, none by more than a single spot, but finished with a Top 3 of Sydney, Brisbane Lions, and Hawthorn.
Read More2026 - Round 8 Results - Worth It
/Another good week for favourites and anti-contrarian Head-to-Head Tipsters, which saw all but three Tipsters register eight from nine, the exceptions being MARS_Marg’s seven, Consult The Ladder’s six, and Home Sweet Home’s five.
That allowed Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear to draw level with MARS_Marg at the top of the Leaderboard, all now on 57 from 72 (74%) and one tip clear of MoSHPlay_Marg and the RSMP twins.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.8 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 53.5 from 72 (74%).
Read More2026 - Round 8 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SATURDAY 4PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 20 points.
UPDATE FRIDAY 7:30PM
MoSHPlay has no changes for tonight’s games and some new preliminary views on the Sunday games.
UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay’s has finished at Hawks by 10 points, and now has preliminary views about the remainder of the round.
UPDATE WEDNESDAY 10PM
MoSHPlay’s current view of the Thursday night game is Hawks by 10 points.
2026 - Round 8 : Overs/Unders
/This week, MoSHBODS is a little closer to the bookmakers’ views in a few games - and even expects a higher score than them in one game - but still has an all-game expected Total that is about a goal less than both the TAB and Sportsbet.
Read More2026 - Round 8 : MoSHBODS Still Loves Dogs
/Yet another feast of nine more games this week, six of which are expected to be decided by less than 20 points, two more by between 26 and 31 points, and the last one of which is expected to be decided by just over 7 goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 21.2 points per game.
There are five home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 20.3 points per game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 22.3 points per game.
Here’s hoping we have a far more competitive round than last week.
Read More2026 - Team Ratings After Round 7
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of 11 teams this week, with some big changes towards the top of the ordering, which saw Sydney rise to 1st, Hawthorn slip to 2nd, and Brisbane Lions rise to 3rd. In other big moves, Geelong now sits in 5th (down 3), and Collingwood in 6th (up 3).
MARS moved 14 teams, but only four by more than a single spot, which left it with an identical Top 3 to MoSHBODS.
Read More2026 - Round 7 Results - Rebound
/It was a good week for favourites and, by extension, a good week for contrarian-avoiding Head-to-Head Tipsters, which saw all but two Tipsters register eight from nine, the exceptions being MARS_Marg’s seven, and Home Sweet Home’s five.
That left MARS_Marg still in 1st place and now on 49 from 53 (79%) but only one tip clear of Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear, with MoSHPlay_Marg remaining one further back with the RSMP twins on 47 from 63 (76%).
The all-Tipster average score came in at 7.6 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 45.8 from 63 (74%).
It’s been a fairly easy year to tip winners.
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