2024 - Team Ratings After Round 16

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MoSSBODS reranked 13 teams this week, and MoSHBODS 15, but still have the same Top 6 of Sydney, Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, and Collingwood.

Five teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS: GWS down 4, Essendon down 3, Hawthorn up 3, and Geelong and Adelaide up 2 each. Four moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS: Essendon down 3, GWS down 2, and Hawthorn and Adelaide up 2 each. After those moves, Essendon, despite sitting 4th on the competition ladder are now ranked 14th by both Systems.

On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 12th separated are now separated by just 4.6 Scoring Shots (which is about 16 points), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 10th are separated by just 15 points.

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2024 - Round 16 Results - The Struggle Continues

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Only four of the nine early-week favourites were successful over the weekend, but ENS_Linear, the RSMP twins, and two of the MoS trio were contrarian just often enough to do better than that, which left MoSHPlay_Marg atop the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard but now by only one tip from the RSMP twins and two from MoSHBODS_Marg.

1st and 7th remain separated by just 3 tips, and the all-Tipster average for the round was 4.9 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 85.3 from 135 (63%).

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2024 - Round 16 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 4PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Hawks by 8 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 2:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 36 points.


UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 6 points.

UPDATE SATURDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 5 points and Dons by 6 points.



UPDATE SATURDAY 4PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Gold Coast by 4 points.

(Note that there have been changes to the preliminary forecasts to the remaining games because of previous input errors - I’d used the game order from the original fixture on one but not all of my spreadsheets. Should have had Dogs by 47 and Swnas by 30, too, but can’t change these now they’re published and the game has started)

UPDATE SATURDAY 1:15PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 39 points and Swans by 24 points (and has some updated preliminary views on the Sunday games).


UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 37 points.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM

MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on the round are below. At this point it’s extreme margin forecaster in five games, and extreme probability estimator also in five games.

2024 - Round 16 : Yes We Can

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Round 16 offers a full menu of fixtures, with the Friday night entree a 10th v 9th affair somewhat remarkably expected to be won by almost 5 goals by the team in 10th. Saturday doesn’t start much better in terms of expected margins, with two more games forecast to be won by 4 or 5 goals, but it’s quality for the remainder of the day, with three near coin-toss games to fill the afternoon and evening. Sunday starts with another near pick ‘em before moving onto an expected 6 goal affair, and finishing with a contest forecast to be decided by a couple of goals.

The all-game average expected margin is 15.7 points per game in what is another highly bimodal round.

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2024 - Team Ratings After Round 15

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MoSSBODS reranked eight teams again this week, and MoSHBODS only six, leaving them both now with the same Top 7 of Sydney, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Collingwood, Fremantle, and GWS.

Only two teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS (GWS up 2 into 7th, and Melbourne down 2 into 8th). Two also moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS (Port Adelaide down 3 to 13th, and Hawthorn up 3 to 10th).

Ratings compression persists on both Systems, but is beginning to diminish, with MoSSBODS’ 2nd and 13th separated by 5.4 Scoring Shots (which is about 20 points), and MoSHBODS’ 2nd and 12th separated by just under 20 points.

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2024 - Round 15 Results - Bye Byes

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All six early-week favourites won this week, which meant that all but Consult the Ladder and Home Sweet Home tipped 6 from 6.

That made for zero movement on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard, which now sees MoSHPlay_Marg on 78.5 from 120 (65%), one tip ahead of Bookie Knows Nest and MoSSBODS_Marg. The all-Tipster average for the round was 5.4 from 6, which took the season-long figure to 75.2 from 120 (63%).

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2024 - Round 15 : MoSHPlay

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SUNDAY 12:45PM UPDATE

MoSHPlay finishes at Essendon by 31 points.

SATURDAY 4PM UPDATE

MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 14 points.

SATURDAY 1:15PM UPDATE

MoSHPlay finishes at a contrarian Lions by a goal (and also has some new, preliminary views about the Sunday games).

FRIDAY 7PM UPDATE

MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 8 points.


THURSDAY 7:45PM UPDATE

Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about the upcoming round.

2024 - Round 15 : Calmness

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Round 15 is the last of the season’s truncated rounds, and its six games this week comprise four that are expected to be won by only about two-and-a-half goals or less, and two more that are expected to be won by about six-and-a-half goals. The all-game average expected margin is 16.7 points per game, which is not within a couple of points of any of the actual expected margins, demonstrating the lower utility of using means for bimodal data.

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2024 - Team Ratings After Round 14

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MoSSBODS reranked just eight teams this week, and MoSHBODS only four, leaving them both now with the same Top 5 of Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions, Carlton, and Collingwood.

Only two teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS (Western Bulldogs up 2 into 2nd, and Collingwood down 2 into 5th. None moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS.

Ratings compression persists on both Systems with MoSSBODS’ 2nd and 13th separated by only 4.7 Scoring Shots (which is about 17 points), and MoSHBODS’ 2nd and 13th separated by only just over 16 points.

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2024 - Round 14 Results - Past Performance is No Guarantee

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All six early-week favourites won this week, which meant that all but Consult the Ladder and Home Sweet Home tipped 6 from 6.

That made for zero movement on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard, which now sees MoSHPlay_Marg on 78.5 from 120 (65%), one tip ahead of Bookie Knows Nest and MoSSBODS_Marg. The all-Tipster average for the round was 5.4 from 6, which took the season-long figure to 75.2 from 120 (63%).

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2024 - Round 14 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Pies by 44 points (and has updated its preliminary view of the final game to Giants by 17 points).

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Swans by 15 points.

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Hawks by 14 points.

UPDATE 1:15PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has finished at Dogs by a goal.

UPDATE 7:30PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on the round’s six games.

2024 - Team Ratings After Round 13

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MoSSBODS reranked 10 teams again this week, but MoSHBODS reranked 12, leaving them both now with only the same Top 2 of Sydney and Brisbane Lions. MoSSBODS prefers Collingwood for 3rd, while MoSHBODS likes Western Bulldogs.

Only three teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS (Brisbane Lions up 3 into 2nd, Western Bulldogs down 2 into 4th, and Carlton down 2 into 5th) and three did likewise on MoSHBODS (Brisbane Lions up 3 into 2nd, Essendon up 2 into 11th, and Adelaide down 2 into 14th).

Ratings compression persists on both Systems with MoSSBODS’ 1st and 12th separated by only 5.1 Scoring Shots (which is about 19 points), and MoSHBODS’ 1st and 12th separated by only just over 19 points.

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2024 - Round 13 Results - Moving Day

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It was another bad week for favourites, with just three of eight claiming victory, which allowed MoSHPlay_Marg to overtake Bookie Knows Best by one tip based on its 4 from 8 performance, and MoSHBODS_Marg to move up the Leaderboard with the same score.

MoSHPlay_Marg is now on 72.5 from 114 (64%), and the all-Tipster average for the round came in at 3.1 from 8, which took the season-long figure to 69.7 from 114 (61%).

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2024 - Round 13 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 2:45PM MONDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Dees by 2 points.

UPDATE 6:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view on the Pies v Dees game (and it’s still and finally Blues by 9 points in tonight’s game).

UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 29 points.

UPDATE 7PM SATURDAY

Some new, but still not final, MoSHPlay views on the Sunday games.

UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at a contrarian Hawks by 4 points.


UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 8 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

No change to MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of Crows by 27 points tonight, but some initial preliminary views on most of the rest of the round.

UPDATE 6:45PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of the Thursday game is Crows by 27 points.