2023 - Round 21 Results - It's Not Just About Winning

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It’s been fun and odd these past two weeks after seeing questions being raised by Pies fans on Twitter (sorry, X) about why so many statistical models didn’t rate their beloved 16 and 2 team particularly highly at the end of Round 19. The short answer is: because they’d won so many games by not so many points, and that they had an okay but not outstanding 6 and 2 record against teams then in the Top 8. The fact that they’ve gone 0 and 2 since then isn’t a huge surprise to any of us with models, but the vitriol aimed at the more prominent people who pointed out the Pies’ apparent frailty is a stark reminder to me about how far from mainstream are statistical ideas, and how deeply the shallow Win-Loss record is felt to be a reliable indicator of a team’s underlying ability.

Anyway, to this week’s results, where my entirely in-silico head-to-head models managed scores ranging from 5 to 8 out of 9, and where MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg were the only two Tipsters to snag 8 from 9 and, in so doing, secured 1st and 2nd places on the Leaderboard.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 6.8 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 119.8 from 180 (67%).

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2023 - Round 21 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 2:30PM SUNDAY

Blues by 11 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 7PM SATURDAY

Cats by 24 points and Giants by 8 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has it as Pies by 30 points

UPDATE 1:30PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has it as Dons by 57 and Crows by 27 points (plus there are some updates to the Sunday game forecasts here)

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts about Round 21

2023 - Round 21 : Still Hard to Call

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Over half of Round 21 contests involved teams that are five spots or less distant on the competion ladder. We have:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the lines are 18.5 points

  • Three games where the teams are separated by between three and five ladder positions and where the lines range from 4.5 to 50.5 points

  • One game where the teams are separated by seven ladder positions and where the line is 8.5 points

  • Three games where the teams are separated by between 12 and 15 ladder positions and where the lines range from 17.5 to 40.5 points

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.77.

That relatively high average ladder separation has translated into high average handicaps, the overall average coming in at 22.7 points per game, which is up by over 8-and-a-half points on the Round 20 average, but down by about half-a-point on the all-time average for Round 21s. It moves the all-Season average to 18.3 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 20

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There were some big moves on both Systems towards the top this week, which left the Lions in 1st on MoSSBODS but now ahead of the Dees and the Pies, and saw the Pies grab 1st on MoSHBODS, ahead of the Lions and the Dees.

In total, nine teams changed places on MoSSBODS, six of them by more than two spots, and nine changed places on MoSHBODS, five of them by more than two spots. Some of the bigger moves were Melbourne and Collingwood up by 3 spots, and Port Adelaide, Geelong, and Richmond down by 3 spots on MoSSBODS, and Melbourne and Adelaide up by 3 spots, Geelong down by 3 spots, and Port Adelaide down by 5 spots on MoSHBODS. Those are some large movements for this late in the season.

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2023 - Round 20 Results - You Couldn't Have Picked It

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When the average Head-to-Head Tipster records a worse than 1-in-3 record, and the best manages only 4 from 9, you know it’s been a tough round to tip..

MoSHBODS_Marg snagged three, but retains top spot, ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg, who bagged 4, and ENS_Linear, who also bagged 3. MoSHPlay_Marg scored only 1 from 9, and fell to equal 4th.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 2.7 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 113 from 171 (66%).

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2023 - Round 20 : MoSHPlay

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UpdaTe 4PM SUNDAY

Roos by 18 points, according to MoSHPlay

UpdaTe 12:30PM SUNDAY

Hawks by 3 points, according to MoSHPlay

UpdaTe 4PM SATURDAY

Lions by 15 points, according to MoSHPlay

UpdaTe 1:15PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 46 points and Dogs by 8 points

UpdaTe 7:15PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 16 points.

UpdaTe 8PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s intial thoughts about Round 20 games

2023 - Round 20 : And Then There Were Five

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Only three of Round 20 contests involve teams that are fewer than 6 spots apart on the competition ladder. We have:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are between 0.5 and 1.5 points

  • One game where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the line is 9.5

  • Three games where the teams are separated by between six and eight ladder positions and where the lines are between 13.5 and 42.5 points

  • Three games where the teams are separated by 10 or 11 ladder positions and where the lines are between 2.5 and 22.5 points

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 6.3 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.86.

The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 14.1 points per game, which is down by about 4 points on the Round 19 average, and down by over 7 points on the all-time average for Round 20s. It moves the all-Season average to 18.1 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 19

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On MoSSBODS this week, the only movements at the top were Geelong moving into 3rd to supplant Melbourne, who fell to 5th. Brisbane Lions retained top spot ahead of Port Adelaide. On MoSHBODS, however, Geelong climbed into top spot, Brisbane Lions fell to 2nd, Collingwood retained 3rd, and Port Adelaide climbed two spots to take 4th.

Only three team moved by more than a single spot on MoSSBODS (Geelong up 2, Melbourne down 2, and Gold Coast down 3) and only three did the same on MoSHBODS (Port Adelaide and GWS up 2 spots, and Melbourne down 2 spots).

In total, eight teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 11 changed places on MoSHBODS.

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2023 - Round 19 Results - The Edges Are Done, and Most of the Sky

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Whilst the jigsaw of which teams feature in the 2023 Grand Final remains far from completed, I think we made significant progress this weekend, which was one in which the Head-to-Head Tipsters fared pretty well.

In fact, four of them tipped the card, and most bagged at least 7 from 9. The two leaders registered 8 from 9 results, which left MoSHBODS_Marg still one tip ahead of MoSHPlay_Marg, and now on 117 from 162 (72%). ENS_Linear, who was one of the Tipsters to bag all 9, snagged 3rd place in so doing and is now on 115 from 162 (71%) and just two tips off the lead.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 8.1 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 110.3 from 162 (68%).

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2023 - Round 19 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 4PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 30 points


UPDATE SUNDAY 2:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 19 points

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 9 points

UPDATE SATURDAY 1:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 69 points


UPDATE SATURDAY 1PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Tigers by 14 points

UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 9 points

(Note that the other forecasts have also changed because the previous ones were using older player ratings)

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the Round 19 games

2023 - Round 19 : The Final Half-Dozen

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Six of this week’s games pit teams no more than five ladder positions apart. We have:

  • Three games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are between 1.5 and 2.5 points

  • One game where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the line is 13.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by four or five ladder positions and where the lines are 12.5 and 18.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by eight ladder positions and where the lines are 18.5 and 65.5 points

  • One game where the teams are separated by 11 ladder positions and where the line is 28.5

On average, the opposing teams are separated by just 4.6 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.75.

The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 18.2 points per game, which is up just slightly on the Round 18 average, and down by 1.5 points on the all-time average for Round 19s. It leaves the all-Season average at 18.3 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 18

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There were movements at the top of both Systems this week, which left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, and Melbourne, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Brisbane Lions, Geelong, and Colligwood.

The big movers for the week on MoSSBODS were Collingwood and Essendon (both down 2), and Gold Coast and GWS (both up 2). On MoSHBODS they were, more dramatically, Port Adelaide (down 4), Essendon (down 2), Geelong (up 3), and GWS (up 2).

In total, 12 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and seven changed places on MoSHBODS.

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2023 - Round 18 Results - A Slight Swerve

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Some more solid head-to-head tipping from the MoS trio saw them retain the Top 3 spots on the Leaderboard, with MoSHBODS_Marg doing best in scoring 8 from 9 to set up a one tip lead over MoSHPlay_Marg, and a two tip lead over MoSSBODS_Marg. First and seventh are now separated by five tips.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 6.6 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 102.2 from 153 (67%).

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2023 - Round 18 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 12:45PM

Hawks by 4 goals, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE SATURDAY 7PM

It’s the Cats by 14 points and the Crows by 17 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE SATURDAY 3:45PM

It’s the Blues by 4 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

It’s the Lions by 3 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE THURSDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the rest of Round 18

UPDATE THURSDAY 6:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 10 points

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay currently has it as the Swans by 14 points

2023 - Round 18 : Consequential

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Four of this week’s games pit teams no more than three ladder positions apart. We have:

  • Three games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are between 4.5 and 16.5 points

  • One game where the teams are separated by three ladder positions and where the line is 20.5

  • Four games where the teams are separated by between six and nine ladder positions and where the lines are between 5.5 and 40.5 points

  • One game where the teams are separated by 13 ladder positions and where the line is 38.5

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 5.4 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.61.

The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 17.5 points per game, which is down by over eight points on the Round 17 average, and by over 5 points on the all-time average for Round 18s. It leaves the all-Season average at 18.3 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 17

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The Top 2 teams on both Systems remained unchanged this week, with Port Adelaide leading Brisbane Lions on MoSSBODS, and Brisbane Lions leading Port Adelaide on MoSHBODS. On both Systems, however, Port Adelaide lost Rating Points and Brisbane Lions gained them.

The big movers for the week were Carlton (up 3 places on both Systems), Sydney and Fremantle (both down 2 places on MoSSBODS), and Adelaide (down 2 places on MoSHBODS).

In total, eight teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and seven changed places on MoSHBODS.

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