2023 - Round 9 Results - Forecasting is Hard (Except When it's Not)

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The MoS trio are still in the Top 3 spots on probability prediction, now fill three of the top five spots on margin prediction, and still hold the Top 2 spots on head-to-head tipping, despite a somewhat challenging round for forecasters.

Head-to-head tipping wasn’t too bad, with seven favourites taking the points, though MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg were wrong in their lone contrarian tip, which saw them bag only 6 from 9 and surrender a tip to Bookie Knows Best. MoSHBODS_Marg reamins a tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg, but is now only two tips ahead of Bookie Knows Best.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 6.2 from 9 and, for the season, it now stands at 53.8 from 81 (67%).

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2023 - Round 9 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 33 points

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

Brisbane Lions by 26 points and Carlton by 6 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

Melbourne by 43 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 1:45PM SATURDAY

And Port Adelaide by 33 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 1:30PM SATURDAY

Swans by 21 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s first thoughts about the round

2023 - Round 9 : Not a Lot to Recommend It

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This week’s fare includes two games with quite large handicaps that are between teams separated by only one or two ladder positions:

  • Richmond 16th vs West Coast 18th (Richmond -38.5)

  • Geelong 7th vs Adelaide 8th (Geelong -31.5)

For the remaining games, we have:

  • Two more games where the teams are separated by two spots on the ladder (where the starts are 2.5 and 10.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly three spots (where the start is 17.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly four spots (where the start is 14.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly ten spots (where the start is 16.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 11 spots (where the start is 17.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 12 spots (where the start is 37.5 points)

On average, then, the opposing teams are separated by just over 5 ladder spots.

The week’s average bookmaker expected margin is 20.7 points per game, which is down by half a goal on the Round 7 average, and just over a point lower than the all-time average for Round 8s. It drives the all-Season average up to 16.4 points per game.

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2023 - Round 8 Results - A Box of Favourites

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The MoS trio are still in the Top 3 spots on probability prediction, have returned to the Top 3 spots on margin prediction, but hold only the Top 2 spots on head-to-head tipping after MoSHPlay_Marg bagged only 8 from 9 in a round where all nine early market bookmaker favourites prevailed.

On head-to-head tipping, MoSHBODS_Marg still leads MoSSBODS_Marg by a single tip, but had its margin to Bookie Knows Best reduced by one tip to three.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 8.2 from 9 and, for the season, it now stands at 47.6 from 72 (66%).

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2023 - Round 8 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 4PM

To end the round, MoSHPlay has gone Saints by 41 points

UPDATE SUNDAY 3PM

It’s the Pies by 22 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

MoSHPlay has it as Port Adelaide by just 7 points

UPDATE SATURDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay has it as Dogs by 12 points and Dockers by 14 points

UPDATE SATURDAY 4PM

Melbourne by 30 points, according to MoSHPlay


UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay’s is going Blues by 7 points for tonight’s game (and has, thanks to an Excel formula error, revised its forecasts for the eight other games, too)

UPDATE THURSDAY 7:30PM

Here are MoSHPlay’s first thoughts on the round

2023 - Round 8 : Measured

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This week’s fare includes two games with quite large handicaps that are between teams separated by only one or two ladder positions:

  • Richmond 16th vs West Coast 18th (Richmond -38.5)

  • Geelong 7th vs Adelaide 8th (Geelong -31.5)

For the remaining games, we have:

  • Two more games where the teams are separated by two spots on the ladder (where the starts are 2.5 and 10.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly three spots (where the start is 17.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly four spots (where the start is 14.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly ten spots (where the start is 16.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 11 spots (where the start is 17.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 12 spots (where the start is 37.5 points)

On average, then, the opposing teams are separated by just over 5 ladder spots.

The week’s average bookmaker expected margin is 20.7 points per game, which is down by half a goal on the Round 7 average, and just over a point lower than the all-time average for Round 8s. It drives the all-Season average up to 16.4 points per game.

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2023 - Round 7 Results - A Little Regression

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The MoS trio have clung onto the Top 3 spots in two of the three competitions this week, slipping only via MoSHBODS_Marg on margin prediction.

On head-to-head tipping, six of the nine early favourites were successful, and none of the Tipsters did better than six from nine. MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg were two of the high scorers, which assured their continued occupancy of 1st and 2nd places on the Leaderboard. MoSHPlay_Marg managed only five from nine, which meant it was caught from Bookie Knows Best in equal 3rd.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 5.6 from 9 and, for the season, it now stands at 39.4 from 63 (63%).

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2023 - Round 7 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay has finished with the Crows winning by 5 points. Seems brave …

UPDATE 2:30PM SUNDAY

It’s the Tigers by 20 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

It’s the Cats, but only by 5 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Dees by 51 and Blues by 32 points

UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY

Next we have the Dogs by 18 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 1:30PM SATURDAY

And now it’s the Swans by 16 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY

It’s the Lions by 34 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay’s finishes at Saints by 14 points

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s opening thoughts on Round 7

2023 - Round 7 : Testing the Order

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I’ve been sensing that this might be one of the most competitive seasons in recent times and this week will test that observation as teams from far flung rungs of the competition ladder face one another.

We have:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by two spots on the ladder

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly three spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly five spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly six spots

  • Two games where they’re separated by exactly seven spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly nine spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 12 spots

On average, then, the opposing teams are separated by almost 6 ladder spots. That’s quite large.

The gaps in quality are also reflected in the week’s average bookmaker expected margin of 23.8 points per game, which is up by almost a full goal on the Round 6 average, and which is almost 3 points higher than the all-time average for Round 7s. It drives the all-Season average up to just under 16 points per game.

The week’s average includes four games expected to be won by less than 3 goals, four games expected to be won by between 4 and 6 goals, and one expected to be won by about 7-and-a-half goals.

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2023 - Round 6 Results - Green MoS Everywhere

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For the first time in a long time, it’s the MoS trio in some order atop all three Leaderboards.

On head-to-head tipping MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg bagged 8 from 9, which saw them end the round in 1st and 2nd, respectively, while MoSHPlay_Marg tipped the card to move into outright 3rd.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 7 from 9. For the season, it now stands at 33.8 from 54 (63%).

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2023 - Round 6 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE TUESDAY 2:45PM

It’s a very uncontroversial Pies by 16 points from MoSHPlay


UPDATE MONDAY 6:45PM

It’s the Dees by 17 points tonight and, pending final teams, the Pies by 13 points tomorrow, according to MoSHPlay


UPDATE SUNDAY 4PM

The Suns by 5 goals, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE SUNDAY 2:45PM

MoSHPlay ends up at the Saints by 5 points

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

It’s the Crows by 23 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE SATURDAY 6:45PM

Cats by 16 points is MoSHPlay’s final offer

UPDATE SATURDAY 1:00PM

MoSHPlay ends at Port Adelaide by 46 points

UPDATE FRIDAY 11:45PM

Some thoughts on the rest of Round 6 from MoSHPlay

UPDATE FRIDAY 7:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 2 points

UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM

MoSHPlay has gone contrarian and tipped the Dogs by 3 points (pending the final teams)

2023 - Round 6 : Home For Sure

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We at least enter this week firm in the knowledge of which will be the round’s home teams.

We also enter it with an overall average bookmaker expected margin of 17.9 points per game, a tick under last week’s 17.6, and quite a bit little lower than the all-time average for Round 6s. It drives the all-Season average up to just under 14.5 points per game.

The week’s average includes five games expected to be won by less than 3 goals, three games expected to be won by between 3 and 4 goals, and just one expected to be won by about 7-and-a-half goals.

If we look at the ladder positions of the opposing teams this week, we find that we have:

  • One game where the teams are separated by just a single spot on the ladder

  • Three games where they’re separated by exactly three spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly four spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly five spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly eight spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly nine spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 11 spots

To the tips …

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