We’ve markets already for all nine games this week, and the TAB bookmaker expects the average victory margin across the lot of them to be just over three goals. In five games he expects the margin to be under three goals, and in two games over five goals.
Let’s get to the detail.
Read MoreThe Dees finally ran down the Dogs this week on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, leaving both Systems with a Top 3 of Dees, Dogs, and Cats.
In fact, the two Systems now agree about the Top 9 teams after both of them re-ranked 12 teams. The big moves on MoSSBODS were St Kilda up two spots into 10th, and GWS down three spots into 12th. On MoSHBODS we had Melbourne up two spots into 1st, and Carlton up two spots into 9th.
Read MoreWe saw quite a range of outcomes on head-to-head tipping this week, with 6’s and 7’s from the MoS twins, and 4’s and 5’s from everyone else.
That left MoSSBODS_Marg atop the Leaderboard on 114 from 171 (67%), two tips clear of MoSHBODS_Marg and three tips clear of MoSHPlay_Marg.
Read MoreOn the investment front:
Sportsbet voided all earlier wagers on Essendon (H2H and Line) and Gold Coast (H2H)
The TAB did not void earlier wagers on Gold Coast (Line) nor the unders bet on that same game, so we’re stuck with them. We’d not be interested in the line bet given the new venue.
Essendon is attractive again at the new prices on the line and head-to-head markets, so we’ve bets in both of these
GWS is attractive at the new prices on the head-to-head market, so we’ve also a bet there
We’ve also an unders wager now on the GWS v Port Adelaide game
Well, here’s an update I didn’t expect to need to do.
Read MoreAfter quite the weekend, MoSHPlay finishes with a forecast of Port Adelaide by 10 points
Just an update to show MoSHPlay’s new forecasts after the venue changes.
MoSHPlay has it as Cats by 31 points.
Saints by 10 now, according to MoSHPlay
Nothing too outrageous from MoSHPlay so far, with only one of its margin forecasts the most extreme of all the Margin Predictors.
Forecast rain for a number of games has, I think, dampened the scoring expectations of the bookmakers, which has led to the MoS twins recording average expected totals about half a goal higher than those bookmakers.
Read MoreHere are the final forecasts for the MoS models.
Read MoreSo far, we have confirmed venues and bookmaker markets for seven of the upcoming Round 20 games, so let’s take a look at them.
Read MoreWith the Dees v Dogs result virtually as expected in terms of scoring shots and hybrid score, the Dogs retained top spot on both Systems this week, although Geelong managed to squeeze past the Dees and take 2nd spot on MoSHBODS.
Further down the order, on MoSSBODS we had the Brisbane Lions leaping into 3rd ahead of Geelong, North Melbourne taking 16th from Hawthorn, and GWS climbing five spots into 9th pushing each of Carlton, Fremantle, St Kilda, Collingwood, and Gold Coast down a spot. And, on MoSHBODS, GWS climbed three spots into 9th and St Kilda one spot into 10th, pushing Carlton and Fremantle down two spots each into 11th and 12th respectively, while North Melbourne took 16th from Hawthorn.
Those moves have left the two Systems agreeing about 1st, 5th through 9th, and 13th through 18th, and disagreeing by no more than two spots about any team.
Read MoreIt was a mostly uneventful week on head-to-head tipping, as the nine Head-to-Head Tipsters all scored either five or six from nine, which left MoSSBODS_Marg two tips clear atop the Leaderboard and now on 107 from 162 (66%) ahead of four other Tipsters on 105 from 162.
Read MoreHere’s MoSHPlay’s early thoughts on Round 19. Nothing particularly controversial - in fact, if anything a little more conservative than the twins.nough to have MoSHPlay, unlike MoSHBODS, going with the favourites: Cats by 4
Read MoreIt’s something more of a traditional round this week, with the MoS twins’ all-game expected total score coming in about four to five points lower than the bookmakers’.
Read MoreIt’s getting increasingly difficult to keep up with the intra-week changes, but this week, at least for now, we do have a full set of matchups and confirmed venues - and it’s only Wednesday night.
In those matches, we have eight home team favourites (where home is more designated than geographical in some cases), which stands in stark contrast to last week where we had only a single home team favourite. Bookmaker-expected victory margins range from 2 to 29 points, with the all-game average coming in at just under 14 points per game.
Read MoreMore dropped Rating points for the Dogs again this week, but they remain the top-rated team on both Systems as the Dees failed to capitalise, and also dropped points. The Dogs’ lead has been cut to 0.9 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, however, and 4.0 points on MoSHBODS.
Further down the order there was again quite a bit of movement this week, with 14 teams changing places on MoSSBODS and nine doing the same on MoSHBODS. The big movers on MoSSBODS were Richmond and Carlton (both up 3), and Port Adelaide (up 2), as well as Fremantle (down 4) and Collingwood and Adelaide (down 3 each), On MoSHBODS they were Carlton (up 4), Richmond (up 3), Collingwood (down 3), and Fremantle and St Kilda (both down 2).
All those moves have done a lot to align the Systems’ rankings. Currently, they now have the same Top 11 and the same Bottom 4.
Read MoreAnother largely unpleasant set of results for most MoS models, but, to be honest, right now it’s hard to sustain feeling hard done by as these latest COVID variants audition on the world’s Virus Got Talent stages.
Read MoreArmed now with the last piece of this weekend’s fixturing puzzle, here is the complete set of MoS model forecasts.
Read MoreWe now know the venues for all nine games, and have bookmaker markets for all but the last game of the round, so we can revise all of the forecasts for the relocated Richmond v Brisbane Lions game, and some of the forecasts for the relocated GWS v Sydney game.
Read MoreThe announced teams are enough to have MoSHPlay, unlike MoSHBODS, going with the favourites: Cats by 4
Read MoreDays like today, with Sydney’s lockdown extended for another fortnight and a troubling number of cases emerging in Melbourne, it does feel a bit irrelevant to be continuing to blog here about the football, but, for me, it provides some sense of normalcy. I hope maybe it does the same for some of you too, and that you and your families are doing okay right now. Thanks for sticking around.
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