Predicting Bookmaker Head-to-Head Prices : Five Years On

Recently, in light of the discussions about the validity of the season simulations written up over on the Simulations journal, I got to thinking about modelling the Bookmaker's price-setting behaviour and how it might be expected to respond to the outcomes of earlier games in the season. It's a topic I've investigated before, but not for a while.

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Best and Worst AFL Teams 2005 - 2015: A MoSSBOD Perspective

In the last blog on this part of the site I introduced the MoSSBOD Team Rating System, the defining characteristics of which were that it Rated teams based on Scoring Shot Production and Concession and that it provided both a Defensive and an Offensive Rating for all teams.

Today I want to explore the history of those Ratings across the last decade to see what MoSSBOD has to say about the strongest and weakest Offensive and Defensive teams across that period.

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