Time to take another look at Finals simulations.

The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Melbourne: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 85% chances for Top 4, and 40% chances for the Minor Premiership

2. Brisbane Lions and Geelong: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 70-80% chances for Top 4, and around 15-30% chances for the Minor Premiership

3. Fremantle: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 50% chances for Top 4, and around 7-8% chances for the Minor Premiership

4. Collingwood, Carlton, Sydney, and Richmond: 65-85% chance of playing Finals, 15-35% chance of a Top 4 finish, longshots for the Minor Premiership

5. St Kilda and Western Bulldogs: 40-45% chance of playing Finals, 5-6% chance of a Top 4 finish, extreme longshots for Minor Premiership

6. Gold Coast and Port Adelaide: 10-25% chance of playing Finals, extreme longshots for a Top 4 finish

7. Adelaide, Hawthorn, GWS, and Essendon: ultra extreme longshots to play Finals

8. West Coast: very likely to finish 17th

9. North Melbourne: very likely to claim the Spoon

One of the challenges in running cold simulations (ie those where the underlying team ratings and Venue Performance Values don’t change within a simulation replicate based on simulated results) is capturing the inherently increasing uncertainty about team ratings in future games.

We could ignore it entirely or, instead, attempt to incorporate the time-varying nature of that uncertainty in some way. I have chosen to follow the latter course in both my home and away simulations and my finals simulations. (For details about the methodology, see this blog post.)

Specifically, I’ve assumed that the standard deviation of teams’ offensive and defensive ratings is equal to 4.5 times the square root of the time between their latest rating and the date of the match in question, measured in days. This results in some quite large standard deviations for moderately distant games.

Applying that methodology to 10,000 of the 50,000 home and away season simulation replicates yields the following chart showing teams’ Finals fate overall and as a function of their ultimate ladder position at the end of the home and away season.

The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Melbourne: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 80% chances for Top 4, and 40% chances for the Minor Premiership

2. Geelong and Brisbane Lions: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 55-70% chances for Top 4, and around 15-20% chances for the Minor Premiership

3. Fremantle, Carlton, and Sydney: 75-90% chance of playing Finals, 30-50% chance of a Top 4 finish, 5-9% chances for Minor Premiership

4. Collingwood, Richmond, and Western Bulldogs: 50-70% chance of playing Finals, 10-25% chance of a Top 4 finish, longshots for Minor Premiership

5. St Kilda and Gold Coast: 25-40% chance of playing Finals, 3-6% chance of a Top 4 finish, extreme longshots for Minor Premiership

6. Port Adelaide: 12-13% chance of playing Finals, extreme longshots for a Top 4 finish

7. Adelaide, Hawthorn, GWS, and Essendon: extreme longshots to play Finals

8. West Coast and North Melbourne: likely to fight for the Spoon

So far this season the simulations have ended at the conclusion of the home and away season. Today we'll extend the simulations to include the entirety of the Finals series.

The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, and Melbourne: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 65-80% chances for Top 4, and 20-30% chances for the Minor Premiership

2. Geelong: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 60% chances for Top 4, and around 15% chances for the Minor Premiership

3. Carlton, Sydney, Richmond, and Collingwood: 60-75% chance of playing Finals, 20-35% chance of a Top 4 finish, 1-5% chances for Minor Premiership

4. St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, and Gold Coast: 40-50% chance of playing Finals, 8-13% chance of a Top 4 finish, extreme longshots for Minor Premiership

5. Port Adelaide: 12-13% chance of playing Finals, longshots for a Top 4 finish

6. Adelaide, Hawthorn, and GWS: 0.2-0.8% chance of playing Finals

7. Essendon: extreme longshots to play Finals

8. North Melbourne and West Coast: likely to fight for the Spoon

The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Brisbane Lions, Melbourne, Fremantle, and Geelong: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 60-70% chances for Top 4, and 15-25% chances for the Minor Premiership

2. Carlton, Sydney, and St Kilda: 70-80% chance of playing Finals, 30-45% chance of a Top 4 finish, 4-8% chances for Minor Premiership

3. Collingwood and Richmond: 60-65% chance of playing Finals, 15-20% chance of a Top 4 finish, longshot for Minor Premiership

4. Gold Coast and Western Bulldogs: 30-45% chance of playing Finals, 5-9% chance of a Top 4 finish, extreme longshots for Minor Premiership

5. Port Adelaide: 7-9% chance of playing Finals, longshots for a Top 4 finish

6. Adelaide, Hawthorn, and GWS: 0.5-1% chance of playing Finals

7. Essendon: extreme longshots to play Finals

8. North Melbourne and West Coast: very likely to fight for the Spoon

The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as followed:

1. Melbourne: virtually assured of a Top 4 finish and about a 2-in-5 chance to be Minor Premier

2. Geelong, Brisbane Lions, and Fremantle: 90%+ chance of playing Finals, 60% chance of a Top 4 finish and 1-in-7 to 1-in-8 chance of being Minor Premier

3. St Kilda, Sydney, and Carlton : 65-80% chance of playing Finals, 25-40% chance of a Top 4 finish, 5-7% chances for Minor Premiership

4. Richmond: 55-60% chance of playing Finals, 15-20% chance of a Top 4 finish, longshot for Minor Premiership

5. Collingwood, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs: 35-50% chance of playing Finals, 6-9% chance of a Top 4 finish, extreme longshots for Minor Premiership

6. Port Adelaide: 15-20% chance of playing Finals, longshots for a Top 4 finish

7. Adelaide, Hawthorn, and GWS: 1% chance of playing Finals

8. Essendon: extreme longshots to play Finals

9. North Melbourne and West Coast: very likely to fight for the Spoon

(For details about the methodologies I’ve used, see this earlier blog).

The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as followed:

1. Melbourne: virtually assured of a Top 4 finish and about a 3-in-5 chance to be Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions: 65-70% chance of a Top 4 finish and 1-in-5 or 1-in-6 chance of being Minor Premier

3. Fremantle, St Kilda, and Geelong: 80-90% chance of playing Finals, 40-50% chance of a Top 4 finish, 5-10% chances for Minor Premiership

4. Carlton: 70-80% chance of playing Finals, 30-35% chance of a Top 4 finish, longshots for Minor Premiership

5. Sydney, Richmond, and Western Bulldogs: 55-65% chance of playing Finals, 15-20% chance of a Top 4 finish, extreme longshots for Minor Premiership

6. Collingwood and Gold Coast: 35-45% chance of playing Finals, longshots for a Top 4 finish

7. Port Adelaide: 15-20% chance of playing Finals, extreme longshots for a Top 4 finish

8. Hawthorn, Adelaide, and GWS: 1-4% chance of playing Finals

9. Essendon: less than 1% chance of playing Finals

10. North Melbourne and West Coast: very likely to fight for the Spoon

The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as followed:

1. Melbourne: virtually assured of a Top 4 finish and very likely to be Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions: 65-75% chance of a Top 4 finish and 1-in-8 or 1-in-9 chance of being Minor Premier

3. Carlton, St Kilda, Geelong, Fremantle, and Richmond: 70-90% chance of playing Finals, 25-50% chance of a Top 4 finish, longshots for Minor Premiership

4. Sydney: 60-65% chance of playing Finals, 20-25% chance of a Top 4 finish

5. Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Gold Coast, and Port Adelaide: 25-45% chance of playing Finals, longshots for a Top 4 finish

6. Hawthorn: 15% chance of playing Finals

7. Adelaide and GWS: 2-4% chance of playing Finals

8. Essendon: less than 1% chance of playing Finals

9. North Melbourne and West Coast: very likely to fight for the Spoon

The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as followed:

1. Melbourne: virtually assured of a Top 4 finish and very likely to be Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions: 75-80% chance of a Top 4 finish and 1-in-6 chance of being Minor Premier

3. Fremantle, Carlton, St Kilda, Sydney, and Geelong: 75-90% chance of playing Finals, 30-50% chance of a Top 4 finish, longshots for Minor Premiership

4. Richmond: 60% chance of playing Finals, outside chance of a Top 4 finish

5. Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, and Gold Coast: 30-40% chance of playing Finals, longshots for a Top 4 finish

6. Collingwood, Hawthorn, and Adelaide: 5-15% chance of playing Finals

7. GWS and Essendon: longshots to play Finals

8. North Melbourne and West Coast: very likely to fight for the Spoon

This week’s Standard and Heretical Methodology simulations see the average team’s Expected Win count change by 0.6 wins, probability of making the 8 change by just under 7% points, and probability of finishing Top 4 change by just over 1% points. Those numbers are quite similar to last week’s and suggest that we’re still at a similar point in the season, at least in terms of how single rounds affect key probability estimates.

This week’s Standard Methodology simulations see the average team’s Expected Win count change by 0.6 wins, probability of making the 8 change by just under 6% points, and probability of finishing Top 4 change by just under 5% points. The equivalent values for the Heretical Methodology are 0.7 wins, just over 6% points, and 5% points. Those average percentage point changes are about the same as we saw last week.

This weeks’ Standard Methodology simulations see the average team’s Expected Win count change by 0.5 wins, probability of making the 8 change by just over 6% points, and probability of finishing Top 4 change by just 4% points. The equivalent values for the Heretical Methodology are 0.6 wins, 6% points, and 4% points. Those average percentage point changes are again smaller than we saw last week, hinting again that the overall level of uncertainty is on the decline.

This weeks’ Standard Methodology simulations see the average team’s Expected Win count change by 0.6 wins, probability of making the 8 change by just over 7% points, and probability of finishing Top 4 change by just under 5% points. The equivalent values for the Heretical Methodology are 0.7 wins, 7% points, and 5.5% points. Those average percentage point changes are smaller than we saw last week, which perhaps indicates that the simulations are settling down somewhat.

This weeks’ Standard Methodology simulations see the average team’s Expected Win count change by 0.6 wins, probability of making the 8 change by just under 9% points, and probability of finishing Top 4 change by 6.5% points. The equivalent values for the Heretical Methodology are 0.8 wins, 8% points, and 7% points.

By way of context, those values are quite similar to those for the previous round, which were:

• Standard Methodology: 0.7 wins; 9% points for Top 8; 6% points for Top 4

• Heretical Methodology: 0.8 wins; 7.5 points for Top 8; 5.5% points for Top 4

All of which is to say that, on those metrics, the Round 4 results altered the average team’s chances by about the same amount as did the Round 3 results.

MoSHBODS is still making fairly large adjustments in its Team Ratings, and this is reflected in the simulation details that appear below.

With twice the amount of information about each team’s 2020 season form, it’s no surprise that the estimates of their Finals and other chances have changed quite a bit again this week.

The first round results have, as usual, changed most people’s estimates of many of the 18 team’s chances of playing Finals football, and they’ve changed MoSHBODS’ estimates, too.

In this the third-ever, wildly speculative, pre-season ladder simulation, I’ll again be using the two methodologies I call Standard and Heretical, which are described below.