The bookmakers are expecting considerably lower scores in the two Wildcard Finals than is MoSHBODS, with the difference about 3 points in the Friday game and 13 points in the Saturday game.
Read MoreThis week we have the competition’s first-ever wildcard finals, a concept of which I’m not a fan. If about 56% of your teams are participating in your Finals series, I think you need to ponder harder on what you want winning the competition to mean.
The two wildcard games do look as though they’ll be close, but that’s something you should probably expect when only tams from 6th to 10th on the competition ladder are playing.
In the first game, the Pies are half-point favourites against the Dogs, the latter of which are the notional home team despite being forced to play at their opponent’s home ground. In the second, the Blues are two-and-a-half point favourites over the Dees.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of a startling 13 teams this week, including lifting Sydney into 2nd and Brisbane Lions into 3rd at the expense of Geelong.
The other multi-spot movers were Carlton (up into 7th) and Collingwood (down 2 into 9th).
MARS reranked 12 teams, including elevating Brisbane Lions by 3 places into 1st, dropping Fremantle 3 places into 4th, dropping Melbourne and St Kilda two spots each, and elevating Western Bulldogs by 3 places.
MoSHBODS finished with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Sydney, and Brisbane Lions, while MARS has Brisbane Lions, Sydney, and Geelong.
Read MoreSix of the nine early-week favourites won this week, and with contrarian behaviour coming from only MARS_Marg and Home Sweet Home, all other Tipsters scored six while registered five and four respectively. That left Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear atop the Head-to-Head Tipsters’ Leaderboard, now on 156.5 from 207 (76%) and five tips clear only of RSMP_Weighted.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.7 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 146.8 from 207 (71%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is sticking with the Lions by just one goal, and now has fresh preliminary views about some of the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay is sticking with the Saints winning by 14 points and now has preliminary views about the remainder of games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow night’s game has the Saints winning by 14 points.
It’s been quite the week to be a football followers and punter. I’ll make no comment on the specifics of the Swans situation, but simply report the wagering market fact that the Swans have moved from about 5-goal favourites to 1-goal underdogs, as you’ll see in the table below.
As I type this there is no Totals market up on the TAB for the Swans’ game so I’ve just assumed it’s the same as the Sportsbet market.
With all that by way of background, MoSHBODS’ average total this week is almost a goal less than the bookmakers’, with differences in the 9 to 12 point range for three of the games. In only two of the games is the MoSHBODS projected total higher than the bookmakers’.
The average absolute difference between MoSHBODS’ and the TAB’s expected margins is 4.9 points per game and between MoSHBODS’ and Sportsbet’s expected margins is 5.0 points per game.
Read MoreThis week we have five games expected to be decided by about two to three goals, one game by about three-and-a-half goals, two games by about six to six-and-a-half goals, and the remaining game by about ten goals.
Five games have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 28.7 points per game, and four have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of 22.3 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 25.8 points per game.
Again this week, a lack of knowledge about teams’ underlying motivations leaves us vulnerable as forecasters and punters.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of eight teams this week, flipping four pairs of teams, including flipping Geelong into 2nd ahead of Sydney. That left a Top 3 of Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.
Their were no multi-spot movers.
MARS also reranked only six teams, flipping three pairs, but nothing in the Top 5, leaving it also with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.
Their were no multi-spot movers.
Read MoreEight of the nine early-week favourites won this week (actually eight won and two drew), and with contrarian behaviour at a minimum, only Home Sweet Home scored anything less than that eight. That left Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear atop the Head-to-Head Tipsters’ Leaderboard, and now on 150.5 from 198 (76%), five tips clear of MARS_Marg and RSMP_Weighted.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 7.6 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 141.2 from 198 (71%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has ended at Hawks by 11 points
Update on MoSHPlay’s preliminary views about the remaining games in the round
MoSHPlay has preliminary views about all the games in the round
MoSHBODS’ average total this week is about the same as the bookmakers’, although fpur of the single game absolute differences are in the 6.4 to 7.4 point range. The average absolute difference between MoSHBODS’ and the TAB’s expected margins is 0.3 points per game and between MoSHBODS’ and Sportsbet’s expected margins is 1.0 points per game
MoSHBODS is forecasting higher totals than both bookmakers in five games, and a lower total than bookmakers in four games.
Read MoreThis week we have just two games expected to be decided by about two goals or less, four by about three-and-a-half to four goals, two by about five goals, and the last two by about ten goals.
Three games have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 22.2 points per game, and six have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 16.7 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 18.5 points per game.
One of the perils of tipping (and wagering) at this point in the season without knowledge of the selected teams, is that this absence is exacerbated by a similar lack of knowledge about the underlying motivation levels of the players that are selected.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of 10 teams this week, including flipping Sydney up into 2nd and Hawthorn down into 5th leaving a Top 3 of Fremantle, Sydney, and Geelong.
The only other multi-spot mover was Adelaide (down 2 into 8th).
MARS also rerated 10 teams, including moving Sydney into 3rd and Brisbane Lions into 4th, and slipping Hawthorn down into 5th to leave it with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.
Hawthorn and Brisbane Lions were its only multi-spot movers.
Read MoreSix of the nine early-week favourites won this week, but only Bookie Knows Best, ENS_Linear, and MoSHBODS_Marg registered six correct tips, which left Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear atop the Head-to-Head Tipsters’ Leaderboard, and now on 142.5 from 189 (75%), five tips clear of MARS_Marg and RSMP_Weighted.
Every other Tipster scored five from from, which meant the all-Tipster average score came in at 5.3 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 133.6 from 189 (71%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has finished at Giants by 18 points.
MoSHPlay has finished at Swans by 35 points.
MoSHPlay is staying with Lions by 5 points and now has fresh preliminary views about the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay is staying with Dogs by 15 points and now has preliminary views about the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of the Thursday night game is Dogs by 15 points
MoSHBODS’ average total this week is about the same as the bookmakers’, although three of the single game absolute differences are in the 5 to 10 point range. The average absolute difference between MoSHBODS’ and the bookmakers’ expected margins is 0.5 points per game.
MoSHBODS is forecasting higher totals than both bookmakers in three games, and a lower total than bookmakers in six games, although by only about half-a-point in three of those.
Read MoreThis week we have five games expected to be decided by about three goals or less, one by about three-and-a-half goals, one by almost six goals, and the last two by about nine or ten goals.
Six games have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 31.5 points per game, and three have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 10.8 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 24.6 points per game.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of only seven teams again this week, including flipping Sydney into 4th ahead of Brisbane Lions but moving none of the Top 3 teams, which remain Fremantle, Hawthorn, and Geelong.
The only multi-spot movers were Carlton (up 3 into 9th) and Port Adelaide (down 2 into 13th).
MARS again rerated 11 teams, including moving Geelong into 2nd ahead of Hawthorn to leave it with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Geelong, and Hawthorn.
Its multi-spot movers were Carlton (up 3 into 9th, Brisbane Lions (down 2 into 6th), and St Kilda (down 3 into 12th).
Read MoreEight of the nine early-week favourites won this week, which meant that contrarian tipping was mostly punished and that Bookie Knows Best joined ENS_Linear atop the Head-to-Head Tipsters’ Leaderboard, now on 136.5 from 180 (76%). MARS_Marg and RSMP_Weighted remain in joint third, four back on 132.5 (74%).
The outlying scores were sixes from the MoS twins and Consult the Ladder, and a four from Home Sweet Home.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.4 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 128.3 from 180 (71%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has fresh preliminary views about the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay is sticking with Geelong by 7 points and now has preliminary views about the rest of the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow night’s game is Geelong by 7 points.
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