MoSHBODS’ average total this week is, remarkably, just over the bookmakers’, and the game-by-game absolute differences range from 0 to 7.1 points. The average absolute difference between MoSHBODS’ and the TAB’s expected margins is 1.4 points per game, and between MoSHBODS’ and Sportsbet’s expected margins is 1.6 points per game.
MoSHBODS is forecasting higher totals than both bookmakers in seven games, and a lower total than bookmakers in one game.
Read MoreThis week we again have five games expected to be decided by about two goals or less, one by about four goals, two by about five to five-and-a-half goals, and one by about seven-and-a-half goals.
Only three games have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 22.2 points per game, and six have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 14.3 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 16.9 points per game, which is about 7 points lower than last week’s average.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of only six teams this week, flipping three pairs of teams including putting Geelong into 2nd ahead of Hawthorn.
MARS rerated eight teams, flipping four pairs, including moving Hawthorn into 3rd.
That left both Systems with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Geelong, and Hawthorn.
Read MoreSeven of the nine early-week favourites won this week, but there was enough contrarian tipping for five of the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week to record eight, including ENS_Linear, who is now the outright leader on 129.5 from 171 (76%). Bookie Knows Best sits outright second on 128.5 (75%) ahead of MARS_Marg and RSMP_Weighted on 125.5.
The outlying scores were sevens from Bookie Knows Best, MARS_Marg, and Consult the Ladder, and a five from Home Sweet Home.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 7.3 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 121.8 from 171 (71%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has ended at Saints by 15 points.
MoSHPlay has ended at Lions by 39 points.
MoSHPlay has ended at Adelaide by 9 points and now has preliminary views for the games in the remainder of the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow night’s game is Adelaide by 9 points.
MoSHBODS’ average total this week is just under the bookmakers’, and the game-by-game absolute differences range from 0.2 to 8.9 points.
Read MoreThis week we have five games expected to be decided by about two goals or less, and the rest expected to be decided by between about six and nine goals.
Seven games have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 28.1 points per game, and two have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 10 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 24.1 points per game, almost identical to last week’s average.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of only six teams this week, flipping three pairs of teams including putting Geelong into 2nd ahead of Hawthorn.
MARS rerated eight teams, flipping four pairs, including moving Hawthorn into 3rd.
That left both Systems with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Geelong, and Hawthorn.
Read MoreOnly six of the nine early-week favourites secured the four points this round, and that was the score recorded by all but two Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, which left Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear still tied for first and now on 121.5 from 162 (75%) and MARS_Marg still in outright 3rd and back on 118.5 (73%).
The two outlying scores were a seven from Consult the Ladder, and a three from Home Sweet Home.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.8 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 114.5 from 162 (71%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has finished at Gold Coast by 2 goals.
MoSHPlay has finished at Fremantle by four goals.
MoSHPlay is sticking with Swans by 12 points and now has fresh preliminary views about the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay is locking in Cats by 17 points and now has preliminary views about the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of the Thursday night game is Cats by 17 points.
MoSHBODS’ average total this week is again the same as the bookmakers’, but the paths by which those averages have been reached are very different. In four of the nine games, MoSHBODS differs from the bookmakers by a goal or more.
Read MoreThis week we have five games expected to be decided by about two goals or less, three by about six to seven goals, and the last by just over eight goals.
Five games have away favourites with an average expected victory margin of 36.7 points per game, and four have a home team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 7.8 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 23.8 points per game, almost identical to last week’s average.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of nine teams this week, including moving Hawthorn into 2nd, dropping Geelong into 3rd, and dropping Sydney into 5th.
Further down the order, the big multi-spot movers were GWS (up 3 into 10th), and Carlton (down 3 into 13th, which makes it down 6 places in two weeks).
MARS rerated 10 teams, also moving the Lions into 3rd ahead of the Hawks.
Its multi-spot movers were Melbourne (down 2 into 5th), and Carlton (down 2 into 12th, which represents a slide of 5 places in two weeks).
Read MoreEight of the nine early-week favourites secured the four points this round, and that was the score that every Head-to-Head Tipster recorded, which left Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear still tied for first and now on 115.5 from 153 (76%) and MARS_Marg still in outright 3rd and back on 112.5 (74%).
The all-Tipster average score came in at 8 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 108.7 from 153 (71%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay ends at Lions by 66 points.
MoSHPlay ends at Melbourne by 46 points.
MoSHPlay ends at Dogs by 33 points.
MoSHPlay has some updated preliminary views about the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay is sticking with the Dockers by a goal and now has preliminary views about the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow night’s game is the Dockers by a goal.
MoSHBODS’ average total this week is the same as the bookmakers’ or nearly so, and the largest difference for any single game is only 7 points.
Read MoreAnother nine games this week, with six expected to be decided by three goals or less, one by about six goals, one by just under seven goals, and the last by about 10 goals.
Seven of them have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 27.1 points per game, and two have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 11 points. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 23.5 points per game, about four points higher than last week’s average.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of 11 teams this week, including moving Sydney into 3rd ahead of the elevated Lions and the demoted Hawks, making its Top 3 now Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.
Further down the order, the multi-spot movers were Melbourne (up 3 into 6th), and Carlton (down 3 into 10th, despite winning).
MARS rerated only nine teams, also moving Sydney into 3rd ahead of an elevated Lions and demoted Hawks, making its Top 3 also Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.
Its multi-spot movers, apart from Hawthorn were Melbourne (up 2 into 7th), Collingwood (up 3 into 9th), St Kilda (up 2 into 11th), Carlton (down 3 into 10th), Western Bulldogs (down 2 into 12th), and Gold Coast (down 2 into 13th).
Read MoreJust five of the nine early-week favourites secured the four points this round, which led to every Head-to-Head Tipster recording five from nine except Home Sweet Home, who managed only two.
That left Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear still tied for first and now on 107.5 from 144 (75%) with MARS_Marg still in outright 3rd and back on 104.5.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 4.8 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 100.7 from 144 (70%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has finished at Suns by 5 points
MoSHPlay has finished at Hawks by 27 points
MoSHPlay has updated preliminary forecasts for the Sunday games
MoSHPlay has finished at the Cats by 12 points for tonight’s game and has preliminary views for the remainder of games in the round
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow night’s game is Cats by 12 points
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