2026 - Round 17 : Overs/Unders
/MoSHBODS’ average total this week is the same as the bookmakers’, but again the differences for individual games sit on either side of zero and are, in some cases, substantially different.
Read More2026 - Round 17 : A Lot More Action
/We’re spoiled with a return to a full round of nine games this week, with six expected to be decided by three goals or less, two by about four-and-a-half goals, and one by about six goals.
Five of them have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 13.1 points per game, and four have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of 26.8 points. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 19.2 points per game, about one-point-and-a-half below last week’s average.
Read More2026 - Team Ratings After Round 16
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of eight teams this week, but none in the top 2 or the bottom 4. One of the changes was to move Hawthorn ahead of Sydney into 3rd, making its Top 3 now Fremantle, Geelong, and Hawthorn.
Further down the order, the only multi-spot mover was Port Adelaide (up 3 into 11th).
MARS rerated 12 teams to arrive at a Top 3 that matches MoSHBODS’.
Its multi-spot movers were Carlton (up 3 into 7th), and Gold Coast (down 4 into 11th).
Read More2026 - Round 16 Results - Not Without Merit
/For yet another week, six of the seven early-week favourites, but this time Bookie Knows Best, ENS_Linear, MARS_Marg and the MoS twins all recorded that score, bettered only by the still-last-placed Home Sweet Home.
That all meant that Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear retained their three tip lead over the field. They are now on 102.5 from 135 (76%) with MARS_Marg now in outright 3rd and back on 99.5.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.8 from 7, taking the season-long figure to 95.9 from 135 (71%).
Read More2026 - Round 16 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 7PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay has ended at Crows by 15 points
UPDATE 10:30PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay has an updated preliminary forecast for the final game of the round.
UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay’s is staying with Lions by 2 points for tonight’s game and now has preliminary views on the remaining games in the round.
UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow night’s game is Lions by 2 points
2026 - Round 16 : Overs/Unders
/MoSHBODS’ average total this week is slightly higher than the bookmakers’, but the differences for individual games sit on either side of zero.
Its forecast of 197 points in the Lions v Swans game is comfortably its highest forecast of the season.
Read More2026 - Round 16 : A Little More Action
/Another round of seven games this week, with four expected to be decided by about three goals or less, one by about four-and-a-half goals, another by five goals, and the last by six goals.
Six of them have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 21.2 points per game, and just one has an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of 17.5 points. Across all seven games, the average expected margin is 20.6 points per game, more than double last week’s average.
Read More2026 - Team Ratings After Round 15
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of eight teams this week, but none in the top 6 or the bottom 5. Its Top 3 remain Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.
Further down the order, the multi-spot movers were Carlton (up 4 into 7th), St Kilda (down 3 into 10th), Western Bulldogs (up 2 into 11th), and Gold Coast (down 2 into 12th)
MARS also kept its top 6 and bottom 5 unchanged, leaving Geelong, Fremantle, and Sydney as its Top 3.
Its multi-spot movers were Carlton (up 3 into 10th), GWS (down 2 into 9th), and Collingwood (down 2 into 12th).
Read More2026 - Round 15 Results - Nothing Noteworthy
/Once again, six of the seven early-week favourites won this week, but Bookie Knows Best, ENS_Linear, and RSMP_Weighted were the only Head-to-Head Tipsters recording that score, which allowed Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear to take a three tip lead over the field. They are now on 96.5 from 128 (75%) with MARS_Marg and RSMP_Weighted three tips further back on 93.5.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.1 from 7, taking the season-long figure to 90.2 from 128 (70%).
Read More2026 - Round 15 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay has ended at Hawks by 3 points and has new preliminary views on the Sunday games.
UPDATE THURSDAY 10:30PM
MoSHPlay has preliminary views about the remainder of the round.
UPDATE WEDNESDAY 7:45PM
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view on the Thursday night game is Fremantle by 11 points.
2026 - Round 15 : Overs/Unders
/MoSHBODS’ average total this week is - as nature intended - lower than the bookmakers’ by about half a goal.
Read More2026 - Round 15 : MoSHBODS = Bookmaker (approx.)
/Just seven games again this week but with all seven expected to be decided by three goals or less.
Five of them have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 10.5 points per game, and two have away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 9.5 points per game. Across all seven games, the average expected margin is a paltry 10.2 points per game.
Read More2026 - Team Ratings After Round 14
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of seven teams this week, but none in the top 4, which remain Fremantle, Geelong, Sydney, and Hawthorn.
Further down the order, the multi-spot movers were Melbourne (up 2 into 8th), Carlton (up 2 into 11th), and Western Bulldogs (down 4 into 13th)
MARS moved eight teams, which included swapping Geelong back into 1st, ahead of Fremantle. The only multi-spot mover was Western Bulldogs (down 2 into 11th).
Its final Top 3 are Geelong, Fremantle, and Sydney.
Read More2026 - Round 14 Results - Solid
/Six of the seven early-week favourites won this week, which meant that the five non-contrarian Head-to-Head Tipsters scored six, leaving the RSMP twins and Consult the Ladder to score five, and Home Sweet Home four.
That left Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear as joint-leaders, now on 91 from 121 (75%) and still two tips ahead of MARS_Marg, with RSMP_Weighted now one tip further back in outright fourth.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.4 from 7, taking the season-long figure to 85.1 from 121 (70%).
Read More2026 - Round 14 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 250PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay has finished on Saints by 5 points.
UPDATE 1240PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay has finished on Lions by 48 points.
UPDATE 1230PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay has finished on Dees by 33 points.
UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay has finished on Dogs by 5 points and now has preliminary views on the remaining games in the round
UPDATE 730PM WEDNESDAY
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of the Thursday night game is Dogs by 5 points
2026 - Round 14 : Overs/Unders
/MoSHBODS’ average total this week is (checks notes) higher than the bookmakers’, thanks partly to a general lift in MoSHBODS’ forecasts but also to the prospect of rain in at least three of the matches.
Read More2026 - Round 14 : Last Chance for MoSHPlay?
/Only seven games this week, with three expected to be decided by less than a goal, one by about three goals, one by about four goals, one by about five goals, and one by about seven-and-a-half goals.
with only two home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 31 points per game, and five away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 12.9 points per game. Across all seven games, the average expected margin is 18.1 points per game.
Read More2026 - Team Ratings After Round 13
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of nine teams this week, which included swapping Fremantle into 1st, dropping Sydney into 3rd, and Hawthorn into 4th. Two very big movers were St Kilda up 4 into 7th, and Gold Coast down 4 into 11th.
In the end, MoSHBODS’ Top 3 are Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.
MARS moved 11 teams, which included swapping Fremantle into 1st, and dropping Geelong into 2nd, Sydney into 3rd, and Hawthorn into 4th.
Its final Top 3 are also Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.
Read More2026 - Round 13 Results - More of the Same
/Five of the eight early-week favourites won this week, but only three of the nine Head-to-Head Tipsters were contrarian free, those being Bookie Knows Best (obviously), ENS_Linear and RSMP_Weighted.
Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear remain joint-leaders, now on 85 from 114 (74%) and two tips ahead of MARS_Marg and RSMP_Weighted.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 4.1 from 8, taking the season-long figure to 79.6 from 114 (70%).
Read More2026 - Round 13 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 645PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view on tomorrow’s game is Pies by 4 points
UPDATE 230PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay has finished with the Swans winning by 32 points
UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay has finished with the Hawks winning by 14 points and has some minor updates to its preliminary forecasts for the Sunday games
UPDATE 715PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay has finished with the Cats winning by 9 points and now has preliminary views on all but the Monday game
UPDATE 730PM WEDNESDAY
Mercifully, there’s no Hinge 4 in the Thursday night preliminary forecast that has the Cats winning by a sensible 9 points
