MoS for the Men's 2024 AFL Season

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The men’s 2024 version of MoS will be much the same as the men’s 2023 edition, especially on the forecasting front.

You will again see somewhere on the site weekly posts predicitng results for the round ahead, reviewing the results of the round just gone, updating Team Ratings and the Team Dashboard, and projecting the remainder of the home and away season and the Finals using a technique I railed against for many years.

The main changes are decribed in the sections that follow.

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2023 - Final Overs/Unders Results

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RESULTS for the grand final

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were spread amongst MoSSBODS and the two bookmakers this week in the sole game that we had:

  • Game Margins: TAB and Sportsbet (tied)

  • Home Team Scores: TAB

  • Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Game Totals: TAB

The season-long round win tallies finish at:

  • Game Margins: TAB (9.5 incl 5 ties) / MoSSBODS (7) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 5 ties)

  • Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS (8) / TAB (7.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (7) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie)

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS (8) / TAB (7.5 incl 1 tie) / Sportsbet (6.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (6)

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS (10) / TAB (9.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (2.5 incl 1 tie)

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 28

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The Giants, as we suspected, have finished the season atop both Systems, though only by 0.4 SS on MoSSBODS. On MoSHBODS, the lead is a litttle larger at 7.6 points per game.

The only moves on the MoSSBODS rankings were Collingwood up 4 places into 4th, Brisbane Lions down 2 places into 6th, and Port Adelaide and Fremantle down 1 spot each into 7th and 8th. On MoSHBODS we had Adelaide up 1 spot into 3rd, Collingwood up 1 into 5th, Sydney down 1 into 6th, and Brisbane Lions down 1 into 4th.

Ten teams finish the season rated above-average on MoSSBODS, with 1st and 10th separated by only 4.7 SS, which equates to about 17 points. Twelve teams are rated above-average on MoSHBODS, with 1st and 10th separated by only just under 20 points.

It’s been, as we thought fairly early on - a very even competition with no stand out teams. By way of comparison, last year Geelong finished rated +12.1 by MoSSBODS and +40.8 by MoSHBODS. On MoSSBODS, there were five more teams rated +3 or better, and on MoSHBODS there were five more teams rated +12 or better.

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2023 - Round 28 Results - A Final Favourite

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Collingwood clung on to ensure that Minor Premiers now have a better than 50% win rate in Grand Finals since 2000, as shown in the table at right. They still, however, have a nett losing record against teams finishing 2nd in the home-and-away season.

In percentage terms, teams from 7th (1-0; 100%) and from 3rd (7-5; 58%) now have the best records, and teams from 4th, 5th and 6th (all 0-1; 0%) have the worst.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 27

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The Giants, barring a huge Lions win in the Grand Final, will finish the season ranked 1st on both MoS Systems, despite dropping 0.3 SS of Rating on MoSSBODS this week.

The only moves on the rankings were, on MoSSBODS, Adelaide and Brisbane Lions switching 3rd and 4th, and Carlton and Western Bulldogs switching 9th and 10th and, on MoSHBODS, Melbourne and Brisbane Lions switching 2nd and 3rd.

Ten teams are now rated above-average on MoSSBODS, with 1st and 10th separated by only 4.7 SS, which equates to about 17 points. Twelve teams are rated above-average on MoSHBODS, with 1st and 10th separated by only 19.8 points.

It’s been, as we thought fairly early on, a very even competition with no stand out teams.

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2023 - Round 27 Results - All of Your Favourites Again

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After scares of varying magnitudes, both favourites prevailed this week, knocking 5th and 7th out of the competition in Week 3 of the Finals, a fate that teams from 5th have only suffered three times, and teams from 7th only once, in the last 24 seasons, as you can see in the table at right.

Those results cost MoSHPlay_Marg as share of the lead, and allowed MoSHBODS_Marg and RSMP_Simple to take joint leadership on 147 from 215 (68%).

The all-Tipster average for the round was 1.8 from 2, which took the all-season figure to 141 from 215 (66%).

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 26

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The Giants impressed both MoS Systems enough on Saturday night to have them both install GWS as their top-rated team. MoSSBODS also thought Melbourne did enough to earn 2nd place ahead of the Lions, while MoSHBODS was happy to leave the Lions marginally ahead of the Dees.

Collingwood, despite not playing, rose a spot on both Systems into 8th on MoSSBODS and 6th on MoSHBODS.

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2023 - Round 26 Results - None of Your Favourites

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Both underdogs won this week, knocking 3rd and 4th out of the competition in straight sets, a fate that teams from these positions have only suffered five times in the last 24 seasons, as you can see in the table at right.

Those results meant that MoSHPlay_Marg’s lone contrarian tip was the only scorer for the round, and allowed it to move into joint 1st with MoSHBODS_Marg on 145 from 213 (68%).

The all-Tipster average for the round was 0.1 from 2, which took the all-season figure to 139.2 from 213 (65%).

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2023 - Round 26 : Everyone Agrees

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Recent Finals history shows that home teams in week 1 of the Finals tend to fare well, especially in the Qualifying Finals, and less so in the 1st Elimination Final.

That is largely reflected in the bookmaker prices this week, which see the Pies (and time of wagering) slight favourites, the Blues and Lions as moderate favourites, and the Saints as narrow underdogs.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 25

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After the Elimination and Qualifying Finals, the MoS twins now agree that Brisbane Lions should be ranked 1st, and GWS 2nd. Thereafter, MoSSBODS has it as Adelaide, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and Sydney, while MoSHBODS has it as Melbourne, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, and Sydney.

Both of them remain resolutely unimpressed with Collingwood, who MoSSBODS ranks 9th and MoSHBODS 7th.

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2023 - Round 25 Results - All Your Favourites

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As is often the case, favouritism weighs heavily in Finals, and so it was that Bookie Knows Best snared 4 from 4 this week, a feat matched only by RSMP twins. That allowed RSMP_Simple to join MoSHBODS_Marg at the top of the Leaderboard on 145 from 211 (69%). MoSHPlay_Marg now sits in 3rd place, one tip behind.

Those results left the minor premiers with the best week 1 record of 75%, just ahead of 2nd place’s 71% record. Teams from 5th position still have the worst record, although that is now nearing 60%.

Overall the teams finishing higher on the ladder than their opponents now have a 64 and 32 or 2-in-3 winning record.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 3 from 4, which took the all-season figure to 139.1 from 211 (66%).

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