2023 - Team Ratings After Round 24

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We finish the home-and-away season with MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agreeing on the Top 6 teams, but with the Top 4 in very different orders.

  • Adelaide, with only a relatively modest +1 Scoring Shot increase in its Combined Rating, moved back into top spot on MoSSBODS. They also moved up on MoSHBODS, but only into 4th.

  • Brisbane Lions gained Rating on both Systems to finish in 2nd on MoSSBODS and 3rd on MoSHBODS

  • Melbourne also gained Rating on both Systems to finish in 3rd on MoSSBODS and 2nd on MoSHBODS

  • GWS also gained Rating on both Systems, but in particular on MoSHBODS, to finish in 4th on MoSSBODS and 1st on MoSHBODS

  • Port Adelaide lost Rating on both Systems to finish in 5th on both Systems

  • Carlton lost Rating on both Systems to finish in 6th on both Systems

Both of those 1st place rankings seem a little curious, but the underlying story is, I think, that there are no standout teams this season, so a week or two of unexpectedly strong performances can catapult a team well up the rankings. To illustrate that point, note that the gap between Adelaide and Carlton on MoSSBODS is only 1.7 Scoring Shots (or about 6 points at average conversion rates), and between Adelaide and Carlton on MoSHBODS is only 5.1 points.

By way of comparison, the gaps between 1st and 6th at the end of the 2022 home and away season were 6.4 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and 25.1 points on MoSHBODS, which are about 4 to 5 times the size.

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2023 - Round 24 Results - That'll Do

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If ever there was a week to take notice of each team’s ladder position, this was it, as just 4 of the 9 early-week favourites were successful, but 7 of the 9 teams higher on the competition ladder took the four points.

At the top of the Leaderboard, however, MoSHBODS_Marg managed 4 from 9 to now lead MoSHPlay_Marg, MoSSBODS_Marg and RSMP_Simple by two tips.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 4.6 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 136.1 from 207 (66%).

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2023 - Round 24 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 5:30PM SUNDAY

Blues by 1 point, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 2:30PM SUNDAY

Swans by 4 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 12PM SUNDAY

Power by 26 points, according to MoSHPlay


UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

It’s the Dogs by 7 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 24 points

UPDATE 1:15PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Hawks by 11 and Gold Coast by 29 for the Super Saturday fixtures

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 27 points

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts about the final home and away round

2023 - Round 24 : Final Before Finals

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Seven Round 24 contests involve teams that are separated by no more than 4 spots on the competion ladder and the other two contests involve teams that are separated by nine spots on the competition ladder. We have:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the lines are 12.5 and 13.5 points

  • Three games where the teams are separated by three ladder positions and where the lines range between 1.5 and 15.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by four ladder positions and where the lines are 30.5 and 34.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by nine ladder positions and where the lines are 31.5 and 40.5 points

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 4.3 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.9.

The relatively small average ladder gap between teams has not translated into generally lower handicaps this week, the overall average coming in at 21.5 points per game, which is up by about 2 points on the Round 23 average. It leaves the all-Season average at its final value of 18.4 points per game, which is the highest average since 2018.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 23

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Adelaide’s triumph was relatively short lived on both Systems, and they were amongst some big movers this week, once again highlighting the close nature of this year’s competition, and the lack of any real standout teams.

On MoSSBODS

  • Geelong (down 5 to 13th)

  • Western Bulldogs (down 4 to 10th)

  • Adelaide (down 3 to 5th)

  • Gold Coast (down 2 to 12th)

  • GWS (up 6 to 6th)

  • St Kilda (up 5 to 9th)

On MoSHBODS

  • Adelaide (down 4 to 5th)

  • Western Bulldogs (down 4 to 11th)

  • Geelong (down 4 to 10th)

  • Gold Coast (down 3 to 13th)

  • GWS (up 5 to 6th)

  • St Kilda (up 4 to 9th)

  • Brisbane Lions (up 3 to 2nd)

  • Sydney (up 2 to 7th)

That’s left us with a Top 3 on MoSSBODS of Port Adelaide, Melbourne, and Carlton, and a Top 3 on MoSHBODS of Carlton, Brisbane Lions, and Port Adelaide.

In total, 11 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 9 teams changed places on MoSHBODS.

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2023 - Round 23 Results - Taking the Good With the Bad

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Only five early week favourites won this week, which meant that MoSHPlay_Marg’s and Consult The Ladder’s 6 from 9 was high score for the round, and Home Sweet Home’s 4 from 9 was low score.

MoSHBODS_Marg managed 5 from 9 and still retains a two tip lead over MoSSBODS_Marg and a three tip lead over ENS_Linear, RSMP_Simple and now MoSHPlay_Marg.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 5.1 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 131.6 from 198 (66%).

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2023 - Round 23 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 2:45PM

MoSHPlay ends at Melbourne by 22 points

UPDATE SATURDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay ends at Geelong by 4 points and Adelaide by 20 points

UPDATE SATURDAY 4:30PM

MoSHPlay ends at Giants by 28 points

UPDATE SATURDAY 1:30PM

MoSHPlay ends at Blues by less than a point

UPDATE SATURDAY 1:15PM

MoSHPlay ends at Tigers by 40 points

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts about Round 23

2023 - Round 23 : Penultimate

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Five Round 23 contests involve teams that are separated by no more than 5 spots on the competion ladder and the other four contests involve teams that are separated by at least 10 spots on the competition ladder. We have:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are 6.5 and 18.5 points

  • Three games where the teams are separated by four or five ladder positions and where the lines range between 8.5 to 24.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by 10 ladder positions and where the lines are 8.5 and 62.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by 11 or 12 ladder positions and where the lines are 9.5 and 26.5 points

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 6.6 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.7.

The relatively large average ladder gap between teams has translated into generally higher handicaps this week, the overall average coming in at 19.4 points per game, which is up by about 4-and-a-half points on the Round 22 average, but down by almost seven points on the all-time average for Round 23s. It leaves the all-Season average at 18.2 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 22

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Such is the ridiculously close nature of MoS Team Ratings at this stage of the season that we see multiple teams moving by three or more spots on both Systems.

On MoSSBODS, only the bottom 3 teams were unmoved, while on MoSHBODS only 2nd and the bottom 3 teams were unmoved.

The big movers were:

On MoSSBODS

  • Port Adelaide (up 3 to 1st)

  • Adelaide (up 5 to 2nd)

  • Melbourne (up 2 to 3rd)

  • Collingwood (up 2 to 7th)

  • Fremantle (up 2 to 11th)

  • Brisbane Lions (down 4 to 5th)

  • Western Bulldogs (down 3 to 6th)

  • Richmond (down 3 to 15th)

  • Carlton (down 2 to 4th)

  • Geelong (down 2 to 8th)

  • GWS (down 2 to 12th)

On MoSHBODS

  • Adelaide (up 5 to 1st)

  • Port Adelaide (up 4 to 2nd)

  • Fremantle (up 3 to 12th)

  • Brisbane Lions (down 4 to 5th)

  • Western Bulldogs (down 4 to 7th)

  • Richmond (down 3 to 15th)

  • Geelong (down 2 to 6th)

That’s left us with a Top 3 on MoSSBODS of Port Adelaide, Adelaide, and Melbourne, and a Top 3 on MoSHBODS of Adelaide, Carlton, and Port Adelaide.

Whilst I can make cases for Carlton and Port Adelaide, seeing Adelaide in 2nd on MoSSBODS and 1st on MoSHBODS after a loss (albeit a much smaller than expected one and after registering more scoring shots) did have me checking my inputs.

The larger point, however, is that only 2.3 Scoring Shots separate 1st from 8th on MoSSBODS, and just 4.2 Points separate 1st from 8th on MoSHBODS. That is truly extraordinary.

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2023 - Round 22 Results - Nobody Knows

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Early-week favourites fared fairly well this week, which helped the Head-to-Head Tipsters record a 6.7 from 9 aggregate performance. Best was Consult The Ladders’ 8 from 9, and worst the 6 from 9 scores of the MoS trio and ENS_Linear.

MoSHBODS_Marg still retains a two tip lead over MoSSBODS_Marg , however, and a three tip lead over ENS_Linear and, now, RSMP_Simple.

The all-Tipster all-season figure is now 126.4 from 189 (67%).

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2023 - Round 22 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 5 points

UPDATE 7:20PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Fremantle by 42 points


UPDATE 6:40PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 8 points

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Brisbane Lions by 14 points.

UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Essendon by 19 points and Sydney by 23 points.

UPDATE 8PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s thoughts on the Round 22 games

2023 - Round 22 : Who'd Be A Tipster?

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Two-thirds of Round 22 contests involve teams that are separated by no more than 6 spots on the competion ladder. We have:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by three ladder positions and where the lines are 8.5 and 23.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by four ladder positions and where the lines are 15.5 to 19.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by five or six ladder positions and where the lines are 2.5 and 23.5 points

  • Three games where the teams are separated by eight or 10 ladder positions and where the lines range from 5.5 to 22.5 points

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 5.7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.79.

The large number of games pitting teams relatively close on the ladder has translated into generally low handicaps, the overall average coming in at 14.8 points per game, which is down by about 8 points on the Round 21 average, and down by about eight-and-a-half points on the all-time average for Round 22s. It drops the all-Season average to 18.2 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 21

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It’s really far too late in the season for Team Rating Systems to be rerating too many teams, but the nature of the 2023 season has made that almost a requirement.

On both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, only five teams were unmoved, and the moves were as large as eight spots.

The big movers were:

On MoSSBODS

  • Western Bulldogs (up 5 to 3rd)

  • Carlton (up 2 to 2nd)

  • Adelaide (up 2 to 7th)

  • Hawthorn (up 2 to 14th)

  • Collingwood (down 6 to 9th)

  • Melbourne (down 3 to 5th)

  • St Kilda (down 2 to 15th)

On MoSHBODS

  • Western Bulldogs (up 5 to 3rd)

  • Carlton (up 3 to 2nd)

  • Port Adelaide (up 2 to 4th)

  • Hawthorn (up 3 to 13th)

  • Collingwood (down 8 to 9th)

  • Melbourne (down 2 to 5th)

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2023 - Round 21 Results - It's Not Just About Winning

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It’s been fun and odd these past two weeks after seeing questions being raised by Pies fans on Twitter (sorry, X) about why so many statistical models didn’t rate their beloved 16 and 2 team particularly highly at the end of Round 19. The short answer is: because they’d won so many games by not so many points, and that they had an okay but not outstanding 6 and 2 record against teams then in the Top 8. The fact that they’ve gone 0 and 2 since then isn’t a huge surprise to any of us with models, but the vitriol aimed at the more prominent people who pointed out the Pies’ apparent frailty is a stark reminder to me about how far from mainstream are statistical ideas, and how deeply the shallow Win-Loss record is felt to be a reliable indicator of a team’s underlying ability.

Anyway, to this week’s results, where my entirely in-silico head-to-head models managed scores ranging from 5 to 8 out of 9, and where MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg were the only two Tipsters to snag 8 from 9 and, in so doing, secured 1st and 2nd places on the Leaderboard.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 6.8 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 119.8 from 180 (67%).

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2023 - Round 21 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 2:30PM SUNDAY

Blues by 11 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 7PM SATURDAY

Cats by 24 points and Giants by 8 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has it as Pies by 30 points

UPDATE 1:30PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has it as Dons by 57 and Crows by 27 points (plus there are some updates to the Sunday game forecasts here)

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts about Round 21