2023 - Round 21 : Overs/Unders
/The MoS twins are forecasting generally lower scoring than are the bookmakers this week, but are predicting higher scores in some games and lower scores in others.
Read More2023 - Round 21 : Still Hard to Call
/Over half of Round 21 contests involved teams that are five spots or less distant on the competion ladder. We have:
Two games where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the lines are 18.5 points
Three games where the teams are separated by between three and five ladder positions and where the lines range from 4.5 to 50.5 points
One game where the teams are separated by seven ladder positions and where the line is 8.5 points
Three games where the teams are separated by between 12 and 15 ladder positions and where the lines range from 17.5 to 40.5 points
On average, the opposing teams are separated by 7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.77.
That relatively high average ladder separation has translated into high average handicaps, the overall average coming in at 22.7 points per game, which is up by over 8-and-a-half points on the Round 20 average, but down by about half-a-point on the all-time average for Round 21s. It moves the all-Season average to 18.3 points per game.
Read More2023 - Team Ratings After Round 20
/There were some big moves on both Systems towards the top this week, which left the Lions in 1st on MoSSBODS but now ahead of the Dees and the Pies, and saw the Pies grab 1st on MoSHBODS, ahead of the Lions and the Dees.
In total, nine teams changed places on MoSSBODS, six of them by more than two spots, and nine changed places on MoSHBODS, five of them by more than two spots. Some of the bigger moves were Melbourne and Collingwood up by 3 spots, and Port Adelaide, Geelong, and Richmond down by 3 spots on MoSSBODS, and Melbourne and Adelaide up by 3 spots, Geelong down by 3 spots, and Port Adelaide down by 5 spots on MoSHBODS. Those are some large movements for this late in the season.
Read More2023 - Round 20 Results - You Couldn't Have Picked It
/When the average Head-to-Head Tipster records a worse than 1-in-3 record, and the best manages only 4 from 9, you know it’s been a tough round to tip..
MoSHBODS_Marg snagged three, but retains top spot, ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg, who bagged 4, and ENS_Linear, who also bagged 3. MoSHPlay_Marg scored only 1 from 9, and fell to equal 4th.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 2.7 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 113 from 171 (66%).
Read More2023 - Round 20 : MoSHPlay
/UpdaTe 4PM SUNDAY
Roos by 18 points, according to MoSHPlay
UpdaTe 12:30PM SUNDAY
Hawks by 3 points, according to MoSHPlay
UpdaTe 4PM SATURDAY
Lions by 15 points, according to MoSHPlay
UpdaTe 1:15PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 46 points and Dogs by 8 points
UpdaTe 7:15PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 16 points.
UpdaTe 8PM THURSDAY
Here are MoSHPlay’s intial thoughts about Round 20 games
2023 - Round 20 : Overs/Unders
/Across all nine games the MoS twins are forecasting a very similar average Total to the bookmakers this week, but there are some large differences for individual games.
Read More2023 - Round 20 : And Then There Were Five
/Only three of Round 20 contests involve teams that are fewer than 6 spots apart on the competition ladder. We have:
Two games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are between 0.5 and 1.5 points
One game where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the line is 9.5
Three games where the teams are separated by between six and eight ladder positions and where the lines are between 13.5 and 42.5 points
Three games where the teams are separated by 10 or 11 ladder positions and where the lines are between 2.5 and 22.5 points
On average, the opposing teams are separated by 6.3 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.86.
The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 14.1 points per game, which is down by about 4 points on the Round 19 average, and down by over 7 points on the all-time average for Round 20s. It moves the all-Season average to 18.1 points per game.
Read More2023 - Team Ratings After Round 19
/On MoSSBODS this week, the only movements at the top were Geelong moving into 3rd to supplant Melbourne, who fell to 5th. Brisbane Lions retained top spot ahead of Port Adelaide. On MoSHBODS, however, Geelong climbed into top spot, Brisbane Lions fell to 2nd, Collingwood retained 3rd, and Port Adelaide climbed two spots to take 4th.
Only three team moved by more than a single spot on MoSSBODS (Geelong up 2, Melbourne down 2, and Gold Coast down 3) and only three did the same on MoSHBODS (Port Adelaide and GWS up 2 spots, and Melbourne down 2 spots).
In total, eight teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 11 changed places on MoSHBODS.
Read More2023 - Round 19 Results - The Edges Are Done, and Most of the Sky
/Whilst the jigsaw of which teams feature in the 2023 Grand Final remains far from completed, I think we made significant progress this weekend, which was one in which the Head-to-Head Tipsters fared pretty well.
In fact, four of them tipped the card, and most bagged at least 7 from 9. The two leaders registered 8 from 9 results, which left MoSHBODS_Marg still one tip ahead of MoSHPlay_Marg, and now on 117 from 162 (72%). ENS_Linear, who was one of the Tipsters to bag all 9, snagged 3rd place in so doing and is now on 115 from 162 (71%) and just two tips off the lead.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 8.1 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 110.3 from 162 (68%).
Read More2023 - Round 19 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SUNDAY 4PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 30 points
UPDATE SUNDAY 2:30PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 19 points
UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 9 points
UPDATE SATURDAY 1:30PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 69 points
UPDATE SATURDAY 1PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Tigers by 14 points
UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 9 points
(Note that the other forecasts have also changed because the previous ones were using older player ratings)
UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM
Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the Round 19 games
2023 - Round 19 : Overs/Unders
/On balance, the MoS twins are forecasting slightly lower Totals than are the bookmakers this week, with the notable exception of the (likely to be rain-affected) Port Adelaide v Collingwood game..
Read More2023 - Round 19 : The Final Half-Dozen
/Six of this week’s games pit teams no more than five ladder positions apart. We have:
Three games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are between 1.5 and 2.5 points
One game where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the line is 13.5
Two games where the teams are separated by four or five ladder positions and where the lines are 12.5 and 18.5 points
Two games where the teams are separated by eight ladder positions and where the lines are 18.5 and 65.5 points
One game where the teams are separated by 11 ladder positions and where the line is 28.5
On average, the opposing teams are separated by just 4.6 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.75.
The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 18.2 points per game, which is up just slightly on the Round 18 average, and down by 1.5 points on the all-time average for Round 19s. It leaves the all-Season average at 18.3 points per game.
Read More2023 - Team Ratings After Round 18
/There were movements at the top of both Systems this week, which left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, and Melbourne, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Brisbane Lions, Geelong, and Colligwood.
The big movers for the week on MoSSBODS were Collingwood and Essendon (both down 2), and Gold Coast and GWS (both up 2). On MoSHBODS they were, more dramatically, Port Adelaide (down 4), Essendon (down 2), Geelong (up 3), and GWS (up 2).
In total, 12 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and seven changed places on MoSHBODS.
Read More2023 - Round 18 Results - A Slight Swerve
/Some more solid head-to-head tipping from the MoS trio saw them retain the Top 3 spots on the Leaderboard, with MoSHBODS_Marg doing best in scoring 8 from 9 to set up a one tip lead over MoSHPlay_Marg, and a two tip lead over MoSSBODS_Marg. First and seventh are now separated by five tips.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 6.6 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 102.2 from 153 (67%).
Read More2023 - Round 18 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SUNDAY 12:45PM
Hawks by 4 goals, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE SATURDAY 7PM
It’s the Cats by 14 points and the Crows by 17 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE SATURDAY 3:45PM
It’s the Blues by 4 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM
It’s the Lions by 3 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE THURSDAY 6:45PM
MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the rest of Round 18
UPDATE THURSDAY 6:30PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 10 points
UPDATE WEDNESDAY 6:45PM
MoSHPlay currently has it as the Swans by 14 points
2023 - Round 18 : Overs/Unders
/For the most part, there’s broad agreement across the forecasters this week, though not so much that there’s no potential value in any of the games, according to MoSSBODS.
Read More2023 - Round 18 : Consequential
/Four of this week’s games pit teams no more than three ladder positions apart. We have:
Three games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are between 4.5 and 16.5 points
One game where the teams are separated by three ladder positions and where the line is 20.5
Four games where the teams are separated by between six and nine ladder positions and where the lines are between 5.5 and 40.5 points
One game where the teams are separated by 13 ladder positions and where the line is 38.5
On average, the opposing teams are separated by 5.4 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.61.
The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 17.5 points per game, which is down by over eight points on the Round 17 average, and by over 5 points on the all-time average for Round 18s. It leaves the all-Season average at 18.3 points per game.
Read More2023 - Team Ratings After Round 17
/The Top 2 teams on both Systems remained unchanged this week, with Port Adelaide leading Brisbane Lions on MoSSBODS, and Brisbane Lions leading Port Adelaide on MoSHBODS. On both Systems, however, Port Adelaide lost Rating Points and Brisbane Lions gained them.
The big movers for the week were Carlton (up 3 places on both Systems), Sydney and Fremantle (both down 2 places on MoSSBODS), and Adelaide (down 2 places on MoSHBODS).
In total, eight teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and seven changed places on MoSHBODS.
Read More2023 - Round 17 Results - Course Corrected
/MoSHPlay_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg tipped the card this week, and MoSSBODS_Marg tipped 8 from 9, which left the MoSH pairing tied for 1st on 101 from 144 (70%) and MoSSBODS_Marg in 3rd just a single tip further back. Currently, just 4 tips separate 1st from 7th.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 7.6 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 95.7 from 144 (66%).
Read More2023 - Round 17 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM
It’s Cats by 46 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE SATURDAY 4:30PM
MoSHPlay ends at GWS by 35 points
UPDATE SATURDAY 1:45PM
MoSHPlay ends at Lions by 82 points
UPDATE FRIDAY 11:30PM
Some updated MoSHPlay views on the Sunday games, now that the interchanges and emergencies have been delineated.
UPDATE FRIDAY 1AM
MoSHPlay’s initial views on the rest of Round 17.
UPDATE THURSDAY 6:30PM
MoSHPlay ends at Tigers by 4 points
UPDATE WEDNESDAY 6:45PM
MoSHPlay’s initial view of the Thursday night game is Richmond by 3 points
