For the first time in a long time, it’s the MoS trio in some order atop all three Leaderboards.
On head-to-head tipping MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg bagged 8 from 9, which saw them end the round in 1st and 2nd, respectively, while MoSHPlay_Marg tipped the card to move into outright 3rd.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 7 from 9. For the season, it now stands at 33.8 from 54 (63%).
Read MoreIt’s a very uncontroversial Pies by 16 points from MoSHPlay
It’s the Dees by 17 points tonight and, pending final teams, the Pies by 13 points tomorrow, according to MoSHPlay
The Suns by 5 goals, according to MoSHPlay
MoSHPlay ends up at the Saints by 5 points
It’s the Crows by 23 points, according to MoSHPlay
Cats by 16 points is MoSHPlay’s final offer
MoSHPlay ends at Port Adelaide by 46 points
Some thoughts on the rest of Round 6 from MoSHPlay
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 2 points
MoSHPlay has gone contrarian and tipped the Dogs by 3 points (pending the final teams)
The twins have again come in a little above the bookmakers on expected Totals, but only by about a half a goal per game.
Read MoreWe at least enter this week firm in the knowledge of which will be the round’s home teams.
We also enter it with an overall average bookmaker expected margin of 17.9 points per game, a tick under last week’s 17.6, and quite a bit little lower than the all-time average for Round 6s. It drives the all-Season average up to just under 14.5 points per game.
The week’s average includes five games expected to be won by less than 3 goals, three games expected to be won by between 3 and 4 goals, and just one expected to be won by about 7-and-a-half goals.
If we look at the ladder positions of the opposing teams this week, we find that we have:
One game where the teams are separated by just a single spot on the ladder
Three games where they’re separated by exactly three spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly four spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly five spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly eight spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly nine spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly 11 spots
To the tips …
Read MoreMoSSBODS left its Top 5 teams unchanced this week, despite the fact that four of them shed Rating Points, while MoSHBODS re-ranked all but five of the teams.
In the end, MoSSBODS had a Top 3 of Collingwood, Geelong, and Melbourne, and MoSHBODS had a Top 3 of Collingwood, Geelong, and Sydney.
Read MoreSeven early bookmaker favourites won this week, though Home Sweet Home’s confusion was enough to drive the all-Tipster average a little lower than that. It came in at 6.9 from 9, with the MoS trio all recording top scores of 8 from 9. Only Consult The Ladder’s 6 from 9, and Home Sweet Home’s 4 from 9 fell below the bookmaker’s mark.
MoSHBODS_Marg moved to 30.5 from 45 (68%) and remains one tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg, and a further two tips ahead of Bookie Knows Best.
The all-Tipster average now stands at 26.8 from 45 (60%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay ends at Pies by 11 points
GWS by 12 points, according to MoSHPlay
MoSHPlay has it as the Cats by 52 points
Port Adelaide by 15 points now, according to MoSHPlay
Melbourne by 3 goals, according to MoSHPlay
MoSHPlay’s has it as Swans by 2 points
MoSHPlay’s current thoughts on the rest of Round 5
It’s the home team, Adelaide, by 2 points, according to MoSHPlay for now
This week sees the weather-ignorant MoS twins forecasting higher totals than the bookmakers in almost every game, but also sees some relatively high levels of disagreement between the two bookmakers themselves. I suspect I might have dipped into those markets just after the TAB had made a full adjustment for the forecast inclement weather, and before Sportsbet had fully done likewise.
Read MoreI don’t usually allow any of the MoS models two proverbial bites at the cherry, but when the League unexpectedly announces just two days before a round commences that it has just held coin tosses to (re)determine home team status (yes, seriously), I think that counts as exigent circumstances.
Read MoreThis week, the overall average bookmaker expected margin has come in at 17.6 points per game, a tick under last week’s 17.9, and a little lower than the all-time average for Round 5s.
That average includes six games expected to be won by less than 3 goals, and three games expected to be won by more than 4 goals, and it drives the all-Season average up to just under 14 points per game.
Interestingly, if we look, instead, at the ladder positions of the opposing teams this week, we find that we have:
Three games where the teams are separated by just a single spot on the ladder
Three games where they’re separated by exactly three spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly four spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly five spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly six spots
Another round of substantial reordering left Collingwood 1st on both Systems, but saw Geelong climb back into 2nd on MoSSBODS, and 3rd on MoSHBODS. Melbourne are now 3rd on MoSSBODS and 2nd on MoSHBODS, while Sydney are 4th on both Systems.
Read MoreThere were six bookmaker favourites that won this week, though enough MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters ignored favouritism that we ended up with a 5.4 from 9 all-Tipster average.
Home Sweet Home did enough, however, to retain top spot, and is now on 23.5 from 36 (65%), but just one tip ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 22,5 (63%) and a further tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 21.5 (60%).
The all-Tipster average now stands at 19.9 from 36 (55%).
Read MoreCats by 25 points, according to MoSHPlay
It’s Melbourne by 45 points, according to MoSHPlay - a startling 19 point difference from MoSHBODS
Here are MoSHPlay’s thoughts on the evening matches
MoSHPlay finishes at Tigers by 11 points
Crows by 12 points, according to MoSHPlay
Blues by 32, according to MoSHPlay
Here are MoSHPlay’s first thoughts on the remainder of the games in Round 4.
Pies by 6 points, according to MoSHPlay
It’s been hard to get a fix on the trend for Total scores this season after the first round gave us 174 points per game, the second 170.2, and the third just 155.6 points per game.
That’s contributed to some of the disagreement this week between the MoS twins and the bookmakers and resulted in a mean absolute difference of about 7 points per game.
Read MoreIn stark contrast with last week, according to the TAB Bookmaker we can expect single digit victory margins in only two games this week, and margins of under 3 goals in just five games.
In the remaining games, expected margins range from about three-and-a-half to just under seven-goals.
The overall average expected margin is just under 18 points per game, which is almost three points higher than the average for the same Round in 2022, but just under the historical average for the Round.
That figure of 17.9 points per game drives the all-Season average up to just under 13 points per game, which is virtually identical to last year’s average through Round 3.
Whilst the average expected margin has been just under 13 points per game so far in 2023, the average actual margin has been 29.2 points per game.
Read MoreStill quite a bit of rating movement in both Systems as they continue to recalibrate for the new season and as underdogs continue to be victorious.
Collingwood remains 1st on both Systems, however, now ahead of Melbourne and Sydney. The Cats have dropped to 5th on MoSSBODS, and 4th on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreAgain this week, more home teams than opening market favourites were successful, which leaves the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard in the very unusual position of having Home Sweet Home two tips clear of the pack on 18.5 from 27 (69%). MoSHBODS_Marg currently sits in 2nd, and MoSSBODS_Marg in 3rd. MoSHPlay_Marg sits second-last on the table, ahead only of Consult The Ladder.
The all-Tipster average, despite just five favourites winning, was 5.6 from 9, leaving the average Tipster with a percentage of just under 54.
Read MoreIn the last game of an interesting round, MoSHPlay is tipping Fremantle by 20 points.
MoSHPlay finishes as the lone contrarian Margin Predictor with the Swans winning by 2 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 17 points.
Here’s MoSHPlay’s final tips for tonight’s games (we missed the late LDU out today, which would have moved the forecast to Hawks by 16 points).
Here’s MoSHPlay’s first look at the rest of the round, making assumptions about what the final squads of 23 will be.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 6 points.
MoSHPlay has tonight’s game as a 7-point Dogs victory.
A little more disagreement this week between the twins and the bookmakers at the individual game level, though broad agreement once again at the aggregate level.
Read MoreAccording to the TAB Bookmaker, no game this week is expected to be won by more than 3 goals, and five of them are expected to won by less than 2 goals.
Five home teams and four away teams are currently favourites, which is exactly the same mix as we saw in the opening markets in Round 1 and in Round 2.
The overall average expected margin is just 11.3 points per game, which is the lowest for a Round 3 on record and over a goal less than the average for the Round.
That figure drives the all-Season average down to just 11 points per game, which is a full point per game below last year’s average through Round 3, and is also a record across the period we are looking at.
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