At the heart of any Elo-based system is the parameter k, which determines how responsive the system is to a single result, and it’s always a worry early in the season how well that k has been chosen.
This week, that k has seen the Pies rocket to top spot on both MoS Systems, ahead of the Cats and the Swans in that order on MoSSBODS, and the Swans and the Cats in that order on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreSix home teams, but only four favourites, were successful in Round 2, which left the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard with a very unexpected leader in Home Sweet Home. It is now two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best and MoSHBODS_Marg.
The all-Tipster average was just 4.4 from 9, down a shade on last week’s 4.5 from 9 and leaving the average Tipster with a percentage just under 50.
Read MoreFinal MoSHPlay update: Giants by 4 points.
MoSHPlay ends at Essendon by 11 points.
It’s the Swans by 34 poins, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay ends with Dogs by 12 and Dockers by 38 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts on the rest of the round, which are currently most extreme for Collingwood and Fremantle (largest), and Sydney (smallest) victories.
MoSHPlay finishes with the Dees by 3 points.
Based on the highest-rated of the emergencies being named as the subs for both teams, MoSHPlay has the Dees by 5 points in the Friday night game
MoSHPlay lands on Cats by 8 points
Based on the highest-rated of the emergencies being named as the subs for both teams, MoSHPlay has the Cats by 10 points
We saw very close alignment between the twins’ and the bookmakers’ winners and margins forecasts, and we see much the same thing in their Totals forecasts.
Read MoreIt’s weeks like this that make me realise that the goal is not to create predictive models that virtually mimic the established bookmakers, but instead to create predictive models that are highly correlated for the most part with those bookmakers, but that differ often enough to be interesting, and that are right when they’re different often enough to be profitable.
Read MoreThe MoS twins are still in 2023 parameterised in such a way that they make some of their largest adjustments in the early parts of the season, as evidenced by the Port Adelaide, Sydney, Collingwood, Melbourne, and Essendon climbs this week, and the matching Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, and Hawthorn falls.
Read MoreNo head-to-head tipster did better than 5.5 from 9 this week, which was the mark set by the TAB bookmaker and matched only by Home Sweet Home and MoSHBODS_Marg. Worst was Consult The Ladder’s 2.5 from 9, and the all-Tipster average came in at 4.5 from 9.followed by Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins on 133.5 from 189 (71%). MoSHPlay_Marg is one tip further back.
Read MoreMoSHPlay is still tipping the upset in the Hawks v Bombers game, but now by only 5 points.
MoSHPlay is a little more confident about the Giants’ chances having seen the final teams, and now has them winning by 8 points.
Sydney by 6 points is MoSHPlay’s final offer.
MoSHPlay moves only a fraction of a point with the announcement of the final teams, but with rounding ends at Port Adelaide by 8 points.
With the announcement of the final teams, MoSHPlay has switched and has it now as the Eagles by 2 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 12 points (and has some changes to the Sunday forecasts now that Final Teams have been announced)
MoSHPlay has now had a chance to look at all the named squads and, assuming that the highest-rated 1 of the 4 Emergencies in the Final Teams, and highest-rated 5 of the 8 Interchanges in the Extended Squads, are eventually named, differs most from MoSHBODS in the following:
Dockers by 6 vs Saints by 4 (10 points different)
Power by 7 vs Power by 16 (9 points different)
Swans by 7 vs Suns by 2 (9 points different)
Cats by 10 vs Cats by 17 (7 points different)
In the five remaining games, the forecast margins differ by a goal or less.
With O’Brien named in the Blues’ team, MoSHPlay has moved to Tigers by 14 points.
MoSHPlay has been a little brave with its first forecast of the season, but nothing too outrageous (and still subject to adjustment when the subs are named)
Tigers by 12
Despite some substantial differences of opinion about game margins and game winners, the MoS forecasters are broadly in agreement with the TAB and Sportsbet bookmakers about game totals, with the all-game averages coming in just a single point different.
Read MoreWelcome back to my long-time readers, and hello to those of you who might be here for the first time.
Read MoreA Grand Final win that emphatic will surely have rating consequences, and indeed it has, dropping Sydney to 9th on MoSSBODS and 6th ion MoSHBODS for next season.
Read MoreA disappointing end to the season, but not a result that surprised any of the Head-to-Head Predictors except MoSSBODS_Marg.
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 16 points
MoSHPlay’s opening bid is Cats by 17 points
The MoS twins have similar views to the bookmakers’ about the Total we might see in the Grand Final, but very different ideas about the proportion of that Total that will be attributable to each team..
Read MoreThe final week of the Finals sees Geelong, the team from 1st on the ladder, meet Sydney from 3rd, a situation that has occurred five times previously since 2000, as you can see from the table at right.
Those contests have ended favourably for the Minor Premiers on three of those five occasions.
Across all Grand Finals during this period, however, teams in 3rd have a superior record, albeit from fewer appearances, and join teams from 2nd and teams from 7th as the only set of teams with a better than 50% win rate in Grand Finals.
Read MoreMoSSBODS lifted Collingwood into 4th spot this week, despite their losing, dropping Richmond, Port Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs in the process. It also dropped Brisbane Lions down a spot into 9th, allowing Carlton to take 8th. MoSHBODS also elevated Collingwood, in its case up to 5th at the expense of Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and Brisbane Lions.
Read MoreThe Swans hung on just long enough to give all the Head-to-Head Predictors a two-from-two finish, which, of course, left the Predictor ordering unchanged.
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 34 points.
MoSHPlay has wound it back a touch to Cats by 35 points.
MoSHPlay has it as the Cats by 37 points, and the Swans by 35 points.
The MoS twins have quite different opinions this week, somewhat one with the other, but more so with both the bookmakers.
Read MoreWeek 3 of the Finals sees Geelong, the team from 1st on the ladder, meet Brisbane Lions from 6th, and Sydney, from 2nd, meet Collingwood from 4th.
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