MoSSBODS made no changes to its Top 6 this week, but it elevated the two winning teams, Collingwood and Brisbane Lions, above Carlton. MoSHBODS dropped Melbourne to 4th, behind Richmond, and moved Brisbane Lions up three spots, dropping Fremantle down two spots and Collingwood down one (despite gaining Rating Points) at the same time.
Read MoreIt was 1 from 2 for all the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, which left the ordering of the Leaderboard unchanged.
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 7 points.
MoSHPlay is a bit less confident about the Dees’ chances than is MoSHBODS, and a lot less confident about the Pies’.
The MoS twins are both expecting lower scores in both games this week compared to the two bookmakers.
Read MoreWeek 2 of the Finals sees Melbourne, the team from 2nd on the ladder, meet Brisbane Lions from 6th, and Collingwood from 4th meet Fremantle from 5th.
Read MoreThere was movement towards the top of the two Rating Systems this week with Sydney leap frogging Melbourne into 2nd on both. Further down there were four more moves on MoSSBODS, the largest Fremantle’s 4-spot drop into 10th, and four more on MoSHBODS as well, the largest there being Collingwood’s 3-spot climb to 7th.
Ten teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and the same number are rated as above-average on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreIn a remarkable round of football, two favourites won this week, but the level of contrarianism meant that the all-Tipster average came in at 2.7 from 4, including 3s for all Tipsters except Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins.
That left MoSHBODS_Marg in outright 1st position, now on 151.5 from 202 (75%), and still one tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg, who also scored 3. Bookie Knows Best is now in joint 3rd, tied with MoSHPlay_Marg on 143.5.
Read MoreMoSHSPlay finishes at Dockers by 18 points.
MoSHSPlay finishes at Cats by 31 points.
Dees by 12 is MoSHSPlay’s final bid.
MoSHPlay is more bullish on the Cats and the Dockers than is MoSHBODS, but less bullish on the Dees.
It’s the Lions by just 1 point, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSSBODS is something of an outlier this week, at least in terms of its average forecasted Total, but there is quite a bit of variability generally for each of the four games across the four forecasters.
Read MoreAs the table at right shows, teams playing at home in the first week of the Finals tend to do fairly well, least of all for teams finishing 5th, and most of all for teams finishing 1st and 2nd.
That hasn’t stopped the bookmakers from making the 7th-placed Richmond favourites playing away to the 6th-placed Brisbane Lions, or from making the other home teams favourites by only two-and-a-half to three goals.
Read MoreThere was quite a bit of movement on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, though Geelong did enough to retain top spot on both Rating Systems. Just below them, Melbourne grabbed 2nd from Sydney on both Systems as the latter didn’t do enough against the Saints to impress them.
In total, there were 12 moves on MoSSBODS and 10 on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems disagreeing only about the 6th and 7th, and 15th and 16th spots.
Ten teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and the same number are rated as above-average on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreAll nine winners this week sat higher on the competition ladder than their opponents at the start of the round, which was, of course, excellent news for Consult The Ladder.
Eight of them were also early-week favourites, though, so scores were generally high for all the Head-to-Head Tipsters, Home Sweet Home aside.
MoSHBODS_Marg managed 8 from 9, which allowed it to assume outright 1st position again, now on 148.5 from 198 (75%), and one tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg, who scored only 7 from 9. Bookie Knows Best remains in outright 3rd on 141.5 from 198 (72%), one tip ahead of MoSHPlay_Marg and the RSMP twins.
Read MoreMoSHPlay has switched to Pies by 1 point.
Dogs by 14 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has landed on Tigers by 11 points, and Power by 28.
It’s the Cats by 95 points (sic), according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has it as Giants and Suns both by 13 points.
MoSHPlay has it now as Lions by 8 points.
MoSHPlay is currently the extreme Margin Predictor in six games, including a very brave 92-point forecast for the Cats’ winning margin.
The average absolute difference between MoSSBODS and bookmaker expected Totals this week is about 8.5 points per game, and between MoSHBODS and bookmaker expected Totals is about 7.5 points per game. Those are some of the highest figures this season, surpassed only by those for Round 16, where expected rainfall in a few games dragged the bookmakers’ Totals lower, and by those for Round 14, which included only six games and which was also expected to be rain-affected. Only one game this week is expected to be rain-affected.
Read MoreThis week includes four games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 1 and 4 places, four more where they are separated by between 6 and 10 places, and one where they are separated by exactly 16 places.
That has resulted in a set of expected margins that includes six sized at under about three goals, two more sized at about three-and-a-half goals, and one sized at about ten-and-a-half goals.
The overall average expected margin is 20.1 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 23 standards though higher than last year’s figures. It takes the all-season average expected margin to its final value of 18.1 points per game, which is the highest since 2018.
Read MoreGeelong retained Top spot on both Rating Systems this week, while Sydney impressed MoSSBODS enough to move into 2nd, thereby aligning the Top 3s under both Systems.
In total, there were nine moves on MoSSBODS and seven on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of the 1st through 3rd, 6th, 7th, 11th, 12th, and 15th through 18th teams. Carlton is the only team for which their rankings differ by more than a single place.
Ten teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and the same number are rated as above-average on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreThe RSMP twins tipped all nine winners this week, and five other Head-to-Head Tipsters bagged eight, which included MoSSBODS_Marg but not MoSHBODS_Marg and left us with a tie at the top of the Leaderboard.
Both MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg are now on 140.5 from 189 (74%) with just 18 games to play, followed by Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins on 133.5 from 189 (71%). MoSHPlay_Marg is one tip further back.
Read MoreEssendon by 11 points, according to MoSHPlay.
A very (overly?) confident MoSHPlay has it as Swans by 31 points.
Adelaide by only 26 points, according to MoSHPlay.
Dogs by 25 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay is the most extreme Margin Predictor - at the moment - in three games, including the Crows v Roos game where its forecast is 12 points different from MoSHBODS’.
There are some larger-than-usual differences of opinion between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, with the average absolute difference in their Totals forecasts coming in at 4.7 points per game, which is comfortably the highest this season, breaking the previous high of 4.0 points per game from Round 20.
Between the two, MoSSBODS’ forecasts are more similar to the bookmakers’, both at the individual game level and at the level of the overall average expected Totals.
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