The MoS twins, again, are foreshadowing larger totals than are the bookmakers this week, with the bookmakers’ average over two goals under last week’s recorded 176 points per game, and the MoS twins two to five points higher.
Read MoreLast week was fairly encouraging, and this week promises a number of contests that could legitimately go either way.
Read MoreThe MoS twins are still parameterised in such a way that they make some of their largest adjustments in the early parts of the season, as evidenced by the Geelong, Gold Coast, Carlton and Fremantle climbs this week, and the matching Essendon, West Coast, and Adelaide falls.
Read MoreAs a statistical modeller, you start every season wondering if the improvements you think you’ve made to your models are actually improvements or, instead, just ill-advised renovations to things that were perfectly functional as they were.
At this point, I think it’s fair to say that the changes have, at the very least, not rendered the models useless (as low as a bar as that might be).
Read MoreEagles by 4, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay ends at Adelaide by 15 points.
Hawks by 16, according to MoSHPlay.
With the final team announcements, MoSHPlay has switched to the Giants, but only by 1 point.
The smallest of tweaks to the Cats’ victory margin. MoSHPlay now has it as Cats by 4.
Nothing particularly outrageous from MoSHPlay in its most recent set of forecasts, which are based on the currently named 22s plus the first of those named on the interchange. At this stage, it is the extreme forecaster only in the Eagles v Suns game where it has the home team winning by just 7 points.
MoSHPlay is broadly in agreement (at this stage) with MoSHBODS about the Blues v Tigers game
MoSHPlay, with the announcement of the final teams, has shaved a point off the Dees expected victory margin.
MoSHPlay (having reconsidered) likes the Dees’ and Dogs’ lineups about equally, and so has the home team winning by about 2 goals.
In a rare display of optimism, the MoS forecasters, overall, have higher average Total forecasts than the bookmakers’, as well as some quite different opinions about what individual teams will score to reach those Totals.
Read MoreWelcome back to all my long-term followers, hello to all my new followers (and arrivederci to those who’ve left, not that they’ll read this, I know).
For all that’s happened globally, locally, and for me, personally, since last we talked, it’s genuinely good to be back.
I realise it’s maybe a tad early to be posting Round 1 wagers and forecasts, but that just reflects the impatience of our time (oh, okay, and maybe my teenager-like impatience to get this thing started, as well)
Here’s what we have …
Read MoreExactly 12 months ago today, I posted about the tipsters, predictors and Funds for the 2020 season.
The world has changed a bit since then, but MoS won’t be - well not by much.
Read MoreThe bookmakers were clearly superior to both MoS twins this season in terms of their ability to forecast Game Totals, so much so that it’s fairly unlikely I’ll be bothering to wager in this market next season unless an off-season re-optimisation of the MoS algorithms suggests that a much stronger result is realistic.
In the meantime, let’s wrap up what the final round left us with.
Read MoreThe Dees’ emphatic win over the Dogs saw them finish the season well-ahead on the two Rating Systems, 5.2 Scoring Shots clear of the Dogs on MoSSBODS, and 14.7 Points clear on MoSHBODS.
That left the two Systems still completely agreeing only about the top seven and the bottom three teams, but differing by no more than a single spot about any of them.
Read MoreAll the Head-to-Head Tipsters were on the Dees in the Grand Final, which means that MoSSBODS_Marg has finished top on 138.5 from 206 (67%), three tips ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 135.5 (66%), and five tips ahead of MoSHPlay_Marg on 133.5 (65%).
Read MoreIt’s the Dees by 9, according to MoSHPlay
This week the MoS forecasters again have lower expectations for scoring than the bookmakers - by about two goals in MoSSBODS’ case.
Read MoreThe Grand Final pits 1st against 5th, the first such pairing this millennium - in fact, the first time that 5th has made the Grand Final at all. Somewhat surprisingly, 1st has a worse than 50:50 record in Grand Finals across this period.
Read MoreThe Dogs remained in 2nd place behind the Dees on both Systems this week, but now trail by only 2.4 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and by 7.1 Points on MoSHBODS.
The only teams moving spots were Port Adelaide, who fell three spots to 6th on both Systems, Brisbane Lions, who climbed two spots into 3rd on both Systems despite not playing, and Sydney, who climbed one spot into 5th on both Systems, also without playing.
That left the two Systems agreeing about the top seven and the bottom three teams.
Read MoreAnother full set of one from twos for all the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week has left MoSSBODS_Marg still three tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 137.5 from 206 (67%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 134.5 (65%) and MoSHPlay_Marg on 132.5 (64%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has the Friday game being decided by less than a goal, but the Saturday game by almost four goals.
This week the MoS forecasters have lower expectations for scoring than the bookmakers in both games, in the Friday game by just over a goal, and in the Saturday game by just under a goal.
Read MoreOnce again, the home teams - one notional, one actual - are favourites this week in the two Preliminary Finals.
Those Finals pit 1st against 3rd, the historical record since 2000 for which is a 4-all draw, and 2nd against 5th where the former holds a 2-0 lead.
Read MoreThe Dogs slipped into 2nd place behind the Dees on both Systems this week, and find themselves trailing by 2.7 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and by 7.9 Points on MoSHBODS.
Geelong rose by a single spot on both Systems into 4th, and the Lions fell by two spots on MoSSBODS, and three spots on MoSHBODS. That means both Systems now agree about the Top 4 teams, and that these are the four teams contesting the Preliminary Finals.
In fact, the two Systems now agree about the top 11, and the bottom three teams..
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