The one-point Dogs win meant that it was one from two for all the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, which left MoSSBODS_Marg still three tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 136.5 from 204 (67%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 133.5 (65%) and MoSHPlay_Marg on 131.5 (65%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 20 points.
The most minor of changes sees MoSHPlay moving from Geelong by 20.7 to 21.3 point favourites, now with a victory probability of 74%
MoSHPlay is forecasting two fairly comfortable wins for the favourites
This week the MoS forecasters have lower expectations for scoring in the Friday game than the bookmakers, and higher expectations for the Saturday game.
Read MoreBoth home teams are again favourites this week (despite the fact that one of them is playing its home game in a different State), a circumstance that is once more supported by recent history, which reveals that double-chance teams are 34 and 8 in Semi-Finals since 2000.
Read MoreThe Dees extended their lead on both Systems this week, and now find themselves 2.9 Scoring Shots ahead of Port Adelaide on MoSSBODS, and 8.7 Points ahead of Brisbane Lions on MoSHBODS.
There was, however, something of a shake-up behind the Dees, with Port Adelaide rising two spots on MoSSBODS, and Geelong dropping two spots on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS.
The two Systems now agree about the top team, the teams in 4th through 11th, and the bottom three teams.
Read MoreIt was three out of fours all round this week, which left MoSSBODS_Marg three tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 135.5 from 202 (67%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 132.5 from 202 (66%) and MoSHPlay_Marg on 130.5 from 202 (65%).…
Read MoreJust a small adjustment to the final forecast. Dogs by 7 now.
Finals are not usually the time to be tipping upsets, not even for MoSHPlay
This week the MoS forecasters, overall, have similar opinions to the bookmakers’ about likely Total scores, but somewhat different opinions about what individual teams score to reach those Totals.
Read MoreIt’s Monday night and we have teams, dates, and venues. Almost like a normal season.
All four notional home teams are favourites, according to the bookmakers, which is what you might expect if you scanned recent history, where you’d find that only the 5th vs 8th Elimination Final had produced anything like equally-likely outcomes.
Read MoreThe Dees, in the end, did more than enough against the Cats, and remain in top spot on both Systems, now 1.3 Scoring Shots ahead of Brisbane Lions on MoSSBODS, and 4.6 Points ahead of them on MoSHBODS.
The two Systems now agree about the Top 11 and Bottom 3 teams.
Read MoreThe average Head-to-Head Probability Predictor tipped 6.4 of the 9 winners this week. MoSSBODS_Marg and Consult The Ladder registered round-best scores of 8 from 9, which saw MoSSBODS_Marg move three tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 133 from 198 (67%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 130 from 198 (65%) and MoSHPlay_Marg on 128 from 198 (64%).
So the MoS trio continue to fill all three positions on the dais based on the accuracy metric. The irony continues …
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Adelaide by 7.
Essendon by 21 is MoSHPlay’s final opinion.
MoSHPlay ends at Saints by 17.
Brisbane by 44, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has switched to Richmond with the final team announcement.
MoSHPlay, so far, is the extreme Margin Predictor in only three games
This week the MoS forecasters are again tipping totals to be, on average, over a goal less than are the bookmakers - and we saw how well that went last week.
Read MoreWe now have the venue and markets for the St Kilda v Fremantle game.
Read MoreThere’s still one game yet to find a venue this week, but let’s look at what we have for the eight games where we do have certainty and markets.
Read MoreThe Dees again clung onto top spot on both Systems this week, despite dropping Rating Points once more, and now find themselves only 0.8 Scoring Shots ahead of Brisbane Lions on MoSSBODS, and 2.7 Points ahead of them on MoSHBODS.
The two Systems now agree about the Top 7 and Bottom 5 teams, and one more in between.
Read MoreAll of the Head-to-Head Tipsters were at sixes and sevens this week, but in a good way, which left MoSSBODS_Marg still two tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 125 from 189 (66%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 123 from 189 (65%) and MoSHPlay_Marg on 121 from 189 (64%).
The irony of the MoS trio doing best of all on tipping accuracy, which is a metric I don’t really rate, is not lost on me.
Read MoreWest Coast by 13 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has it as Essendon by 27 points
Melbourne by 54 points is where MoSHPlay has landed
Port Adelaide by 42, and Geelong by 24 is where MoSHPlay has landed
Dogs by 36, according to MoSHPlay
Richmond by only 2 points now, according to MoSHPlay.
At this point, MoSHPlay is the most extreme Margin Predictor and Head-to-Head Probability Predictor in 5 of the 9 games and also, notably, has broken ranks with the twins on the Fremantle v West Coast game where it’s tipped the Eagles to win by 14 points.
This week, the MoS forecasters are tipping totals to be, on average, over a goal less than are the bookmakers, with differences for individual games ranging from about 3 to about 12 points, and all of them negative. In other words, in every one of the nine games, the MoS twins are forecasting a lower total than are the bookmakers.
Read MoreVery late to publish this week, but that’s all down to the incredibly last-minute finalisation of the venues, with the bulk of them confirmed yesterday and the final two only today (Thursday).
In the end, only one of the games is expected by the bookmakers to finish with a margin under three goals, and that game is the first of the round and between the Cats and the Giants. Across all nine games the average forecast margin is 24.6 points per game.
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