This week, the MoS forecasters are tipping totals to be, on average, over a goal less than are the bookmakers, with differences for individual games ranging from about 3 to about 12 points, and all of them negative. In other words, in every one of the nine games, the MoS twins are forecasting a lower total than are the bookmakers.
Read MoreVery late to publish this week, but that’s all down to the incredibly last-minute finalisation of the venues, with the bulk of them confirmed yesterday and the final two only today (Thursday).
In the end, only one of the games is expected by the bookmakers to finish with a margin under three goals, and that game is the first of the round and between the Cats and the Giants. Across all nine games the average forecast margin is 24.6 points per game.
Read MoreThe Dees clung onto top spot on both Systems this week, despite dropping Rating Points, thanks in part to the Dogs doing the same thing. As well, Brisbane Lions slipped into 3rd spot on MoSSBODS, but remains in 4th on MoSHBODS though they now trail Geelong by only 0.3 points.
The two Systems now agree about the Top 2 and Bottom 10 teams, and a couple in between.
Read MoreIt proved to be a difficult round in which to tip winners, but about equally as difficult for most of the Head-to-Head Tipsters, which left MoSSBODS_Marg atop the Leaderboard on 118 from 180 (66%), still two tips clear of MoSHBODS_Marg and three tips clear of MoSHPlay_Marg.
Read MoreMelbourne by 22 is MoSHPlay’s final word.
Final bid from MoSHPlay is Lions by 13 points.
Still Collingwood, but only by 8 points now
MoSHPlay finishes at Tigers by 17.
Cats by 48 now, according to MoSHPlay.
Here are the current MoSHPlay forecasts. They’re most extreme in only four games, and never by more than 3 points.
Here are the final forecasts for the MoS models after the venue switch for the Hawks v Pies game.
Read MoreA return this week to the more common situation of the MoS twins forecasting, on average, lower totals than the bookmakers, although both groups are forecasting that average to be under 160 points per game.
Read MoreWe’ve markets already for all nine games this week, and the TAB bookmaker expects the average victory margin across the lot of them to be just over three goals. In five games he expects the margin to be under three goals, and in two games over five goals.
Let’s get to the detail.
Read MoreThe Dees finally ran down the Dogs this week on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, leaving both Systems with a Top 3 of Dees, Dogs, and Cats.
In fact, the two Systems now agree about the Top 9 teams after both of them re-ranked 12 teams. The big moves on MoSSBODS were St Kilda up two spots into 10th, and GWS down three spots into 12th. On MoSHBODS we had Melbourne up two spots into 1st, and Carlton up two spots into 9th.
Read MoreWe saw quite a range of outcomes on head-to-head tipping this week, with 6’s and 7’s from the MoS twins, and 4’s and 5’s from everyone else.
That left MoSSBODS_Marg atop the Leaderboard on 114 from 171 (67%), two tips clear of MoSHBODS_Marg and three tips clear of MoSHPlay_Marg.
Read MoreOn the investment front:
Sportsbet voided all earlier wagers on Essendon (H2H and Line) and Gold Coast (H2H)
The TAB did not void earlier wagers on Gold Coast (Line) nor the unders bet on that same game, so we’re stuck with them. We’d not be interested in the line bet given the new venue.
Essendon is attractive again at the new prices on the line and head-to-head markets, so we’ve bets in both of these
GWS is attractive at the new prices on the head-to-head market, so we’ve also a bet there
We’ve also an unders wager now on the GWS v Port Adelaide game
Well, here’s an update I didn’t expect to need to do.
Read MoreAfter quite the weekend, MoSHPlay finishes with a forecast of Port Adelaide by 10 points
Just an update to show MoSHPlay’s new forecasts after the venue changes.
MoSHPlay has it as Cats by 31 points.
Saints by 10 now, according to MoSHPlay
Nothing too outrageous from MoSHPlay so far, with only one of its margin forecasts the most extreme of all the Margin Predictors.
Forecast rain for a number of games has, I think, dampened the scoring expectations of the bookmakers, which has led to the MoS twins recording average expected totals about half a goal higher than those bookmakers.
Read MoreHere are the final forecasts for the MoS models.
Read MoreSo far, we have confirmed venues and bookmaker markets for seven of the upcoming Round 20 games, so let’s take a look at them.
Read MoreWith the Dees v Dogs result virtually as expected in terms of scoring shots and hybrid score, the Dogs retained top spot on both Systems this week, although Geelong managed to squeeze past the Dees and take 2nd spot on MoSHBODS.
Further down the order, on MoSSBODS we had the Brisbane Lions leaping into 3rd ahead of Geelong, North Melbourne taking 16th from Hawthorn, and GWS climbing five spots into 9th pushing each of Carlton, Fremantle, St Kilda, Collingwood, and Gold Coast down a spot. And, on MoSHBODS, GWS climbed three spots into 9th and St Kilda one spot into 10th, pushing Carlton and Fremantle down two spots each into 11th and 12th respectively, while North Melbourne took 16th from Hawthorn.
Those moves have left the two Systems agreeing about 1st, 5th through 9th, and 13th through 18th, and disagreeing by no more than two spots about any team.
Read MoreIt was a mostly uneventful week on head-to-head tipping, as the nine Head-to-Head Tipsters all scored either five or six from nine, which left MoSSBODS_Marg two tips clear atop the Leaderboard and now on 107 from 162 (66%) ahead of four other Tipsters on 105 from 162.
Read MoreHere’s MoSHPlay’s early thoughts on Round 19. Nothing particularly controversial - in fact, if anything a little more conservative than the twins.nough to have MoSHPlay, unlike MoSHBODS, going with the favourites: Cats by 4
Read MoreIt’s something more of a traditional round this week, with the MoS twins’ all-game expected total score coming in about four to five points lower than the bookmakers’.
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