2021 - Round 19 : Who Knows?

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It’s getting increasingly difficult to keep up with the intra-week changes, but this week, at least for now, we do have a full set of matchups and confirmed venues - and it’s only Wednesday night.

In those matches, we have eight home team favourites (where home is more designated than geographical in some cases), which stands in stark contrast to last week where we had only a single home team favourite. Bookmaker-expected victory margins range from 2 to 29 points, with the all-game average coming in at just under 14 points per game.

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2021 - Team Ratings After Round 18

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More dropped Rating points for the Dogs again this week, but they remain the top-rated team on both Systems as the Dees failed to capitalise, and also dropped points. The Dogs’ lead has been cut to 0.9 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, however, and 4.0 points on MoSHBODS.

Further down the order there was again quite a bit of movement this week, with 14 teams changing places on MoSSBODS and nine doing the same on MoSHBODS. The big movers on MoSSBODS were Richmond and Carlton (both up 3), and Port Adelaide (up 2), as well as Fremantle (down 4) and Collingwood and Adelaide (down 3 each), On MoSHBODS they were Carlton (up 4), Richmond (up 3), Collingwood (down 3), and Fremantle and St Kilda (both down 2).

All those moves have done a lot to align the Systems’ rankings. Currently, they now have the same Top 11 and the same Bottom 4.

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2021 - Round 18 : Overs/Unders

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Days like today, with Sydney’s lockdown extended for another fortnight and a troubling number of cases emerging in Melbourne, it does feel a bit irrelevant to be continuing to blog here about the football, but, for me, it provides some sense of normalcy. I hope maybe it does the same for some of you too, and that you and your families are doing okay right now. Thanks for sticking around.

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2021 - Team Ratings After Round 17

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Despite dropping Rating points again this week, the Dogs remain the top-rated team on both Systems, although their lead now is only 1.6 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and 4.9 points on MoSHBODS.

Further down the order there was quite a bit of movement, with a dozen teams changing places on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS. The big movers on MoSSBODS were St Kilda (up 3), Sydney and Essendon (up 2), and Port Adelaide and Richmond (down 3), while on MoSHBODS they were St Kilda (up 4), Essendon, Collingwood, and West Coast (up 2), Carlton, GWS, and Adelaide (down 2), and Richmond (down 4).

Currently, both Systems have the same Top 5 and Bottom 1.

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2021 - Round 17 : MoSHPlay Update

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UPDATE 7PM MOnDAY

Eagles by 26 according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 3:30PM SunDAY

MoSHPlay has switched to the Pies.

UPDATE 2:45PM SunDAY

Dogs by 24 now, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE Noon SUNDAY

MoSHPlay now has the Giants - sorry, GIANTS - by only 13 points

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

Just the tiniest of adjustments for the Blues v Cats game. Now Cats by 20.

UPDATE 1:30PM SATURDAY

Fremantle by 9 points now, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay is the most extreme margin forecaster in just two games, and the most extreme probability estimator in four games.

UPDATE 11:45PM WEDNESDAY

Port Adelaide by 3, according to MoSHPlay

2021 - Round 17 : Eureka (Again)

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After another week of staggered announcements about fixturing, here we are on Wednesday morning with only the Lions v Saints game yet to find a home.

The round looks like an interesting one, with all but two of the games forecast to be decided by less than 4 goals, and with six games that the simulations have flagged as particularly important in determining the composition of the ultimate finalists.

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2021 - Team Ratings After Round 16

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Some mid- and lower-table movement on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, most notably the Swans’ climb of 4 spots into 7th on MoSSBODS and 6th on MoSHBODS, and the Eagles’ dive of 3 spots into 17th on both Systems. On MoSHBODS, GWS’ 3 spot climb into 10th was also notable.

At the end of it all, both Systems still have the same Top 5, despite the Dogs Rating decline on both Systems after an insufficiently dominant performance against the Roos.

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2021 - Round 16 Results - Good Enough

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Overall, the Head-to-Head Tipsters did only a little better this week than they did last week, the all-Tipster average coming in at 4.9 from 9, just one-tenth of a tip higher. There was, however, a greater range of scores, with four Tipsters bagging only 4 from 9, and three Tipsters bagging 6 from 9.

Amongst the Tipsters registering the maximum were MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg who, as a result, now have 1st and 2nd places respectively, outroght. MoSHPlay_Marg managed only a 5 from 9 and so fell one tip behind MoSHBODS_Margin.

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2021 - Round 16 - Update #2

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It’s Friday afternoon, I’m in lockdown, we’re one game into the round, and I can now finalise all the outputs. What a week.

Firstly, here are the updated forecasts. Nothing startling in the Crows v Lions game.

And, here are the details for MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS. Adelaide, at home, enjoy a net +2.7 SS VPV on MoSSBODS, and +11.8 points on MoSHBODS.

Here’s the update to wagering, which shows a small wager on Adelaide at $4.20.

Lastly, here are the score forecasts and totals details. We’ve passed on wagering in the Adelaide game, since our own score forecasts are virtually identical to the Total on offer.

2021 - Round 16 - Update #1

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Just a short update for any of you playing at home, now that we know the venue for the Fremantle v Carlton game.

Firstly, here are the updated forecasts

And, here are the details for MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS

Here’s the update to wagering (which shows no bets on the Fremantle v Carlton game)

Lastly, here are the score forecasts and totals details. We’ve passed on taking the overs in the Dockers v Blues game because of the weather forecast.

2021 - Round 16 : MoSHPlay Update

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UPDATE SUNDAY 4PM

Dogs by 57 points in the final game of the round.

UPDATE SUNDAY 2:30PM

Pies by 4 points now, according to MoSHPlay.

R16 - MoSHPlay Update SUN 230PM.png

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

Sydney by 9 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE SATURDAY 4PM

With the late change of Mathieson for Neale, MoSHPlay now has the Lions by only 25.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

Here’s MoSHPlay’s current thoughts about the games where we have both initial squads and a venue.

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 11PM

In this most discombobulated of rounds, MoSHPlay currently has the Tigers by 26 in the Thursday night game