Some mid- and lower-table movement on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, most notably the Swans’ climb of 4 spots into 7th on MoSSBODS and 6th on MoSHBODS, and the Eagles’ dive of 3 spots into 17th on both Systems. On MoSHBODS, GWS’ 3 spot climb into 10th was also notable.
At the end of it all, both Systems still have the same Top 5, despite the Dogs Rating decline on both Systems after an insufficiently dominant performance against the Roos.
Read MoreOverall, the Head-to-Head Tipsters did only a little better this week than they did last week, the all-Tipster average coming in at 4.9 from 9, just one-tenth of a tip higher. There was, however, a greater range of scores, with four Tipsters bagging only 4 from 9, and three Tipsters bagging 6 from 9.
Amongst the Tipsters registering the maximum were MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg who, as a result, now have 1st and 2nd places respectively, outroght. MoSHPlay_Marg managed only a 5 from 9 and so fell one tip behind MoSHBODS_Margin.
Read MoreIt’s Friday afternoon, I’m in lockdown, we’re one game into the round, and I can now finalise all the outputs. What a week.
Firstly, here are the updated forecasts. Nothing startling in the Crows v Lions game.
And, here are the details for MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS. Adelaide, at home, enjoy a net +2.7 SS VPV on MoSSBODS, and +11.8 points on MoSHBODS.
Here’s the update to wagering, which shows a small wager on Adelaide at $4.20.
Lastly, here are the score forecasts and totals details. We’ve passed on wagering in the Adelaide game, since our own score forecasts are virtually identical to the Total on offer.
Just a short update for any of you playing at home, now that we know the venue for the Fremantle v Carlton game.
Firstly, here are the updated forecasts
And, here are the details for MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS
Here’s the update to wagering (which shows no bets on the Fremantle v Carlton game)
Lastly, here are the score forecasts and totals details. We’ve passed on taking the overs in the Dockers v Blues game because of the weather forecast.
Dogs by 57 points in the final game of the round.
Pies by 4 points now, according to MoSHPlay.
Sydney by 9 points, according to MoSHPlay.
With the late change of Mathieson for Neale, MoSHPlay now has the Lions by only 25.
Here’s MoSHPlay’s current thoughts about the games where we have both initial squads and a venue.
In this most discombobulated of rounds, MoSHPlay currently has the Tigers by 26 in the Thursday night game
We’re still waiting for confirmed venues in two games, but here’s what we have so far.
Read MoreIt’s weeks like this that I’m grateful my career choices didn’t wind up with me involved in fixturing for the AFL.
As I write this, there are still two games whose venue is yet to be finalised and that, as a result, there are no bookmaker markets for. For the purposes of the MoS twins. I’ve assumed that the prevailing scuttlebutt is correct, and therefore that the Crows v Lions game will end up being played at Eureka (aka MARS) Stadium, and the Dockers v Blues game at Kardinia.
Read MoreThere was a lot more movement on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, with 13 teams being re-ranked on each. On MoSSBODS, the biggest movers were Fremantle, Sydney and St Kilda, all up two spots, and GWS and West Coast, both down two spots. On MoSHBODS it was Sydney, up three spots, Fremantle and St Kilda, up two spots each, and Collingwood, GWS, and West Coast, all down two spots.
That left both Systems with identical Top 6s and Bottom 7s.
Read MoreA relatively more difficult round to pick, in which only five of the nine favourites were successful, saw the all-Tipster head-to-head average come in at just 4.8, but with all but Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder scoring five from nine. The three MoS forecasters still sit atop the Leaderboard with MoSSBODS_Marg remaining in 1st and now on 87.5 from 126 (69%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSHPlay_Marg on 86.5 (69%), one clear of RSMP_Weighted on 85.5 (68%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is sticking with its Dogs forecast for the win, but now by only 7 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 8 points.
MoSHPlay has revised its estimate for the Pies v Dockers game and now has the Pies winning by 11 points.
Having now had a look at the likely teams for the remainder of the round, MoSHPlay is siding with the twins in every game, though is less confident about the Suns and Dogs upsets.
With the final teams in, Lions by only 2 now, according to MoSHPlay
Lions by 3, according to MoSHPlay
The venue change for the Giants v Hawks game has seen the MoS twins (and the bookmakers) substantially revise their forecasts for that game
Read MoreAll four forecasters have come to roughly the same average Total this week, but have arrived there via different means (if you’ll excuse the stats pun), with the largest differences in the Eagles v Dogs, Roos v Suns, and Power v Swans games.
Read MoreWe’re back to a full menu this week and there are quite a few games expected to be close. The TAB bookmaker’s average expected margin is only 12.5 points per game, and there are five games with forecast single-digit victory margins, and three more with under four-goal margins.
Read MoreOnly three teams changed order on MoSSBODS this week, and only two on MoSHBODS this week, and all of them from the bottom third. The only team moving by more than a single spot was Gold Coast, who fell two spots to 15th on MoSSBODS.
Read MoreA much better round for the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, with five of them tipping the card, and all but Home Sweet Home managing at least four from five. The three MoS forecasters still sit atop the Leaderboard with MoSSBODS_Marg still in 1st and now on 82.5 from 117 (71%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSHPlay_Marg on 81.5 (70%), one clear of RSMP_Weighted and on 80.5 (69%).
Read MoreDons by a point, according to MoSHPlay
MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 2.5 points
MoSHPlay has broken away from its siblings and tipped the Cats over the Dogs
The MoS twins are, on average, forecasting slightly higher totals than are the bookmakers this week, but they remain determinedly unfamiliar with the concept of rain and its affects on scoring.
Read MoreJust the five games this week, with three of them expected to be won by under two goals, one by about three-and-a-half goals, and one by about five-and-a-half goals.
Read MoreOnly four teams changed order on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, and none of them in the Top 8 for either System.
The big movers were Collingwood, up 5 spots to 10th on MoSSBODS, and up 4 spots to 9th on MoSHBODS, and Sydney, down 3 spots to 14th on MoSSBODS, and down 3 spots to 13th on MoSHBODS. GWS also fell 2 spots on MoSHBODS and into 11th.
Read MoreEven the best of the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week managed to do no better than coin-tossing, and that with the freebie half-tip for the drawn game. At the end of it all, though, the three MoS forecasters still sit atop the Leaderboard with MoSSBODS_Marg still in 1st and now on 78.5 from 112 (70%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 77.5 (69%), and MoSHPlay_Marg, now one clear of RSMP_Weighted and on 76.5 (68%).
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