MoSHPlay is currently tipping the Cats by 3 points

There’s near harmony in the averages this week, and in which teams and games are most likely to be lowest- and highest-scoring, but some disagreement in the views about the level of team and total scores in the individual contests.

This week it’s taken until Tuesday for the last of the head-to-head and line markets to go up, so the bookmaker forecasts you see below are mostly from about 10:15am on Monday, but from 3pm Tuesday for the Port Adelaide v Geelong game.

Where we’ve ended up is that three games are expected to be decided by about a goal or less, one by about two-and-a-half goals, and the remaining three by three-and-a-half to five-and-a-half goals.

Only three teams changed order on MoSSBODS this week - West Coast up 2 into 12th, St Kilda up 1 into 14th, and Collingwood down 3 into 15th - while none at all moved on MoSHBODS.

That left the two Systems still with identical Top 8s and with the Dogs heading the Dees at the top, albeit now by reduced margins. The Dogs are now rated by MoSSBODS as about a 2 Scoring Shot better team than the Dees on a neutral venue, and by MoSHBODS as about a 6 point better team.

Quite variable results for the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, with Home Sweet Home bagging just two from six, and the RSMP twins and Consult The Ladder bagging five from six. The three MoS forecasters still sit atop the Leaderboard, however, with MoSSBODS_Marg still in 1st and now on 76 from 105 (72%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 75 (71%), and MoSHPlay_Marg, now joined by RSMP_Weighted on 74 (70.5%).

MoSHPlay is the most extreme Margin Predictor and Head-to-Head Probability Predictor in three games

This week’s truncated round sees both the MoS twins and the bookmakers forecasting higher scores than they did last week, but the twins still a couple of points lower than the bookmakers.

Regular readers will know that I usually lock in the bookmaker’s forecasts fairly early in the week, but there was so much uncertainty about the venues for Round 12 that I’ve been forced to lock them in progressively as venues (and, in one case, State and, in another, which is the home team) have been confirmed.

If COVID has taught me nothing else, it’s been the need to remain flexible to changing model inputs.

Melbourne closed the gap to the Dogs on both Systems in Round 11, and the Lions also made inroads, but we finished the round with the same Top 6 on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS as we had at the end of Round 10.

Further down, Essendon climbed on both Systems to fill the 7th spots, rising from 11th at the start of the round on MoSSBODS, and 9th on MoSHBODS.

Other multiple spot movers on MoSSBODS were GWS (down 3), West Coast (down 4), and Collingwood (up 2). On MoSHBODS we also had GWS and West Coast (both down 2).

High scores again for the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, with all but Home Sweet Home bagging seven from nine. That left the Leaderboard ordering unchanged, with MoSSBODS_Marg still in 1st and now on 72 from 99 (73%), ahead of the two other MoS Tipsters who are both on 71 from 99 (72%).

MoSHPlay is the most extreme Margin Predictor only in the Suns v Hawks, and Eagles v Dons games

With the Suns v Hawks fixture now moved to the SCG, and the Tigers v Crows game now at Sydney Showground, we need to review the forecasts for those matches.

According to the MoS model, that first change is worth about 1 point to the Suns, and the second worth about 7 to 9 points for the Crows.

This week, in aggregate, looks a lot like last week, with MoS twins again expecting about 161 points per game, and the bookmakers a point or two higher. The 2021 season average now stands at 164.8 points per game, 87.1 for home teams, and 78.6 for away teams.

Only one game this week is expected to be decided by less than two goals, while seven have bookmaker handicaps of from three to five goals, which has landed the all-game average at 24.4 points per game, up by over 4 points per game on last week.

The Dogs opened up a gap over Melbourne at the top of both Systems this week, which finished with the two Raters having an identical Top 8 after the Lions and Cats traded 3rd and 4th, and the Giants and Blues traded 7th and 8th.

The big climbers on MoSSBODS were Fremantle (up 3), and Essendon and Gold Coast (up 2), while the biggest fall was registered by St Kilda (down 6). On MoSHBODS, the only teams moving multiple spots were Essendon (up 2), Sydney (down 2), and St Kilda (down 3).

Round 10 continued the upward trend for the Head-to-Head Tipsters, with the average score coming in at 7.3 from 9 this week. Best were the MoS trio’s, Bookie Knows Best’s, ENS_Linear’s and Home Sweet Home’s 8 from 9, while all the remaining Tipsters scored 6 from 9. MoSSBODS_Marg’s 8 from 9 was enough for it to retain sole leadership, now on 65 from 90 (72%), ahead of the two other MoS Tipsters who are both on 64 from 90 (71%).

Nothing too arresting from MoSHPlay so far, although it is a bit more bullish on the Cats, and a little nervy about the Dockers

All four forecasters lowered their average expected totals by about 2 points per game this week, which sees the MoS twins expecting about 161 points per game, and the bookmakers about 163 points per game. The 2021 season average currently stands at 164.5 points per game, 85.7 for home teams, and 79.8 for away teams.

Again this week, only two games are expected to be decided by less than 2 goals, but the difference is that the remainder are expected to be won by between about 3 and 7 goals. As a result, the average expected margin of 20.2 points per game (according to the TAB bookmaker) is almost 3 points per game higher than last week.

The Dogs hung on to top spot on both Systems this week, while Melbourne leap-frogged the Cats on MoSSBODS to leave both Systems now with an identical Top 8.

The big climbers on MoSSBODS were St Kilda (up 3), while the big sliders were West Coast and Essendon (both down 2). On MoSHBODS, Sydney were the only team to move multiple places, they climbing two spots into 9th.