2021 - Round 12 : Overs/Unders
/This week’s truncated round sees both the MoS twins and the bookmakers forecasting higher scores than they did last week, but the twins still a couple of points lower than the bookmakers.
Read More2021 - Round 12 : No Scrums But Agile
/Regular readers will know that I usually lock in the bookmaker’s forecasts fairly early in the week, but there was so much uncertainty about the venues for Round 12 that I’ve been forced to lock them in progressively as venues (and, in one case, State and, in another, which is the home team) have been confirmed.
If COVID has taught me nothing else, it’s been the need to remain flexible to changing model inputs.
Read More2021 - Team Ratings After Round 11
/Melbourne closed the gap to the Dogs on both Systems in Round 11, and the Lions also made inroads, but we finished the round with the same Top 6 on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS as we had at the end of Round 10.
Further down, Essendon climbed on both Systems to fill the 7th spots, rising from 11th at the start of the round on MoSSBODS, and 9th on MoSHBODS.
Other multiple spot movers on MoSSBODS were GWS (down 3), West Coast (down 4), and Collingwood (up 2). On MoSHBODS we also had GWS and West Coast (both down 2).
Read More2021 - Round 11 Results - MoS Still in Green
/High scores again for the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, with all but Home Sweet Home bagging seven from nine. That left the Leaderboard ordering unchanged, with MoSSBODS_Marg still in 1st and now on 72 from 99 (73%), ahead of the two other MoS Tipsters who are both on 71 from 99 (72%).
Read More2021 - Round 11 : MoSHPlay Update
/MoSHPlay is the most extreme Margin Predictor only in the Suns v Hawks, and Eagles v Dons games
Read More2021 - Round 11 : Updates For Two Moved Fixtures
/With the Suns v Hawks fixture now moved to the SCG, and the Tigers v Crows game now at Sydney Showground, we need to review the forecasts for those matches.
According to the MoS model, that first change is worth about 1 point to the Suns, and the second worth about 7 to 9 points for the Crows.
Read More2021 - Round 11 : Overs/Unders
/This week, in aggregate, looks a lot like last week, with MoS twins again expecting about 161 points per game, and the bookmakers a point or two higher. The 2021 season average now stands at 164.8 points per game, 87.1 for home teams, and 78.6 for away teams.
Read More2021 - Round 11 : Before The Byes
/Only one game this week is expected to be decided by less than two goals, while seven have bookmaker handicaps of from three to five goals, which has landed the all-game average at 24.4 points per game, up by over 4 points per game on last week.
Read More2021 - Team Ratings After Round 10
/The Dogs opened up a gap over Melbourne at the top of both Systems this week, which finished with the two Raters having an identical Top 8 after the Lions and Cats traded 3rd and 4th, and the Giants and Blues traded 7th and 8th.
The big climbers on MoSSBODS were Fremantle (up 3), and Essendon and Gold Coast (up 2), while the biggest fall was registered by St Kilda (down 6). On MoSHBODS, the only teams moving multiple spots were Essendon (up 2), Sydney (down 2), and St Kilda (down 3).
Read More2021 - Round 10 Results - Even More Promising
/Round 10 continued the upward trend for the Head-to-Head Tipsters, with the average score coming in at 7.3 from 9 this week. Best were the MoS trio’s, Bookie Knows Best’s, ENS_Linear’s and Home Sweet Home’s 8 from 9, while all the remaining Tipsters scored 6 from 9. MoSSBODS_Marg’s 8 from 9 was enough for it to retain sole leadership, now on 65 from 90 (72%), ahead of the two other MoS Tipsters who are both on 64 from 90 (71%).
Read More2021 - Round 10 : MoSHPlay Update
/Nothing too arresting from MoSHPlay so far, although it is a bit more bullish on the Cats, and a little nervy about the Dockers
Read More2021 - Round 10 : Overs/Unders
/All four forecasters lowered their average expected totals by about 2 points per game this week, which sees the MoS twins expecting about 161 points per game, and the bookmakers about 163 points per game. The 2021 season average currently stands at 164.5 points per game, 85.7 for home teams, and 79.8 for away teams.
Read More2021 - Round 10 : Firmer Favourites
/Again this week, only two games are expected to be decided by less than 2 goals, but the difference is that the remainder are expected to be won by between about 3 and 7 goals. As a result, the average expected margin of 20.2 points per game (according to the TAB bookmaker) is almost 3 points per game higher than last week.
Read More2021 - Team Ratings After Round 9
/The Dogs hung on to top spot on both Systems this week, while Melbourne leap-frogged the Cats on MoSSBODS to leave both Systems now with an identical Top 8.
The big climbers on MoSSBODS were St Kilda (up 3), while the big sliders were West Coast and Essendon (both down 2). On MoSHBODS, Sydney were the only team to move multiple places, they climbing two spots into 9th.
Read More2021 - Round 9 Results - Promising
/Round 9 was even better than Round 8 for the Head-to-Head Tipster, with the average score coming in at 7.1 from 9. Best were the MoS trio’s 8 from 9, and worst was Home Sweet Home’s 5 from 9. MoSSBODS_Marg’s 8 from 9 was enough to propel it back into sole leadership, now on 57 from 81 (70%), ahead of the two other MoS Tipsters and RSMP_Weighted who are all on 56 from 81 (69%).
Read More2021 - Round 9 : MoSHPlay Update
/UPDATE SATURDAY 7:15 PM
There’s nothing especially startling about MoSHPlay’s current views on the Sunday games.
UPDATE FRIDAY 7:30 PM
MoSHPlay now has the Dogs by 0.05 points …
UPDATE FRIDAY 7:15 PM
With final teams announced, it’s the Cats by 22 now, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE THURSDAY 7:45 PM
It’s the Cats by 23 in the Friday game, according to MoSHPlay
2021 - Round 9 : Overs/Unders
/The MoS twins are, once again, just a little more bearish about the likely totals in the upcoming round, but only by about 2 points per game. And, in fact, they actually expect higher scores than do the bookmakers in 3 or 4 of the games.
Read More2021 - Round 9 : Towards The Turn
/This week looks a bit like last week, at least in terms of the bookmaker margins. The average expected margin of 17.3 points per game (according to the TAB bookmaker) is about 1 point per game lower, and there are again only two games expected to be decided by less than 2 goals, and five expected to be decided by more than 3 goals.
Read More2021 - Team Ratings After Round 8
/On MoSSBODS this week, Geelong climbed into 2nd over Melbourne and Richmond, as all but five of the two were re-ranked. Sydney and Fremantle, along with Geelong, were the only teams to climb multiple spots, while Gold Coast was the only team to fall multiple spots.
Over on MoSHBODS, Geelong also climbed two spots, but only into 3rd, while St Kilda climbed three spots, and Gold Coast and Collingwood fell two spots.
So, MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Dees, while MoSHBODS has Dogs, Dees, and Cats.
Read More2021 - Round 8 Results - Yeah, Not Like That
/In a round in which seven favourites registered the win, it’s unsurprising that the Head-to-Head Tipster average came in at 6.9 from 9 this week. Best were RSMP_Weighted’s and Consult The Ladder’s 8 from 9, and worst was Home Sweet Home’s 5 from 9. RSMP_Weighted’s performance was good enough to move it into joint leadership with MoSSBODS_Marg. on 49 from 72 (68%).
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