2021 - Round 8 : MoSHPlay Update
/MoSHPlay is tipping a narrow upset in the Friday night game: Cats by 1 point
Read More2021 - Round 8 : Overs/Unders
/As I type this on Tuesday evening, there is no TAB Totals market for the Lions v Dockers game. Sportsbet have the Total at 160.5 but, as is tradition here, we won’t lock in the numbers for that game for the bookmakers until both have posted Totals.
Read More2021 - Round 8 : On Delay
/After a 24-hour pause while we found out where the Dockers v Lions game would be played, we finish with an average expected margin of 18.4 points per game according to the TAB bookmaker, which is up by over 4 points on last weeks’ figure.
Only two games are expected to be decided by less than 2 goals, and five are expected to be decided by more than 3 goals.
Read More2021 - Team Ratings After Round 7
/Despite two of them shedding Ratings, the Top 7 teams retained their rankings on MoSSBODS this week, but there was a lot of action below them, with West Coast climbing 5 spots, GWS and St Kilda climbing 3 spots each, Fremantle plummeting 7 spots, and Sydney falling 3 spots.
Over on MoSHBODS, only the Cats and Lions swapped places amongst the Top 7, while West Coast climbed 4 spots, GWS climbed 3, and Fremantle fell 5 spots.
Overall, for the third week running, the Top 3 were left unchanged on both Systems as Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, and then Richmond, and the two Systems left North Melbourne in 18th.
Read More2021 - Round 7 Results - Much As We Expected
/We surmised that head-to-head tipping was going to be more difficult this week and, indeed, it was, with the Head-to-Head Tipster average coming in at just 4.4 from 9 this week, down by almost two full tips. Five Tipsters managed 5 from 9, including MoSHPlay_Marg, which took it into joint leadership with MoSSBODS_Marg on 42 from 63 (67%).
Read More2021 - Round 7 : MoSHPlay Update
/Dogs by 12 in the Friday night game, according to MoSHPlay
Read More2021 - Round 7 : Overs/Unders
/Over the course of the season so far, the MoS twins have tended to over-estimate Total scores by about 5 points per game, and the bookmakers under-estimate them by about 3 points per game. This week, they’ve all but come together in deciding that the nine games will average somewhere around 162 to 163 points per game.
Read More2021 - Round 7 : Kicking On
/This week’s average expected margin is only just over 14 points per game according to the TAB bookmaker, and would be considerably lower but for the 55.5 points start that North Melbourne are being offered. All of the remaining games have expected margins of under 3 goals, and seven of them of under 2 goals.
If you tip all nine winners this week, you’ll have achieved something remarkable.
Read More2021 - Team Ratings After Round 6
/A dozen teams were again re-ranked on MoSSBODS this week, and a dozen also on MoSHBODS but, for the second week running, the Top 3 were left unchanged on both Systems as Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, and then Richmond. The two Systems also North Melbourne in 18th.
Read More2021 - Round 6 Results - A Far, Far Better Thing
/The Head-to-Head Tipsters averaged 6.2 from 9 correct tips this week, up fractionally on last week’s average of 6.1 correct tips. MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHPlay_Marg fared best, bagging 7 from 9, with all other Tipsters bagging 6 from 9. MoSSBODS_Marg now stands alone atop the Leaderboard on 38 from 54 (70%).
Read More2021 - Round 6 : MoSHPlay Update
/MoSHPlay is a firm Dogs advocate this week
Read More2021 - Round 6 : Overs/Unders
/This week’s average gap between the MoS twins’ forecasts and the bookmakers’ has come in at under a goal, with that difference heavily influenced by the strongly diverging views about the likely score in the Pies v Dons game, and offset a little by two games in which the MoS twins are expecting higher scores than are the bookmakers. (Yes, that’s right: higher …)
Read More2021 - Round 6 : Regaining the Ascendancy
/This week’s average expected margin is just under 15 points per game according to the TAB bookmaker, which is about two-thirds what it was last week. The only game that threatens to be a blowout is the Dockers v Roos game, where the expected margin is about seven goals. Six other games are expected to be won by less than about two goals.
Read More2021 - Team Ratings After Round 5
/A dozen teams were re-ranked on MoSSBODS this week, and 10 on MoSHBODS but, once again the Top 3 were left unchanged on both Systems as Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, and then Richmond. The two Systems also both left Hawthorn in 17th and North Melbourne in 18th.
Read More2021 - Round 5 Results - Not At All What I Ordered
/The Head-to-Head Tipsters did a little better as a group this week, averaging 6.1 from 9 correct tips, with the RSMP twins and Bookie Knows Best recording the round’s highest score of 7 and drawing level with MoSHPlay_Marg. The remaining two MoS models remain tied at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 31 from 45 (69%).
Read More2021 - Round 5 : MoSHPlay Update
/UPDATE 7PM SATURDAY
Nothing too startling from MoSHPlay for the Sunday games.
UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay now likes the Dogs by 42. No change in the Swans v Giants game.
UPDATE 11PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay pretty much doing what MoSHPlay does in the Saturday games - mostly mainstream in two, and bordering on outrageous in the third
UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY
Eagles by 15 in the Friday night game, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY
With the final teams announced, MoSHPlay is now tipping the Tigers by 7 points
UPDATE 7:30PM WEDNESDAY
Tigers by only 5 tomorrow night, according to MoSHPlay
2021 - Round 5 : Overs/Unders
/This week’s average gap between the MoS twins’ forecasts and the bookmakers’ has come in at just over a goal, though with much larger differences in the Eagles v Pies, Dogs v Suns, and Lions v Dons games.
Read More2021 - Round 5 : Still Building
/There’s a greater likelihood of larger victory margins this week, with the average expected margin coming in at just over 22 points per game, according to the TAB bookmaker, and with only two games expected to be won by less than 2 goals, and one, the Cats v Roos game, expected to be won by 9 goals.
Read More2021 - Team Ratings After Round 4
/MoSSBODS, despite re-ranking 14 teams this week, left the Top 3 unchanged as Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, and then Richmond, and left North Melbourne in bottom spot. MoSHBODS re-ranked 13 teams, but left Western Bulldogs in first, Melbourne in second, and North Melbourne in last place.
Read More2021 - Round 4 Results - What's The Re-Order Number?
/Collectively, the Head-to-Head Tipsters averaged 5.7 from 9 this week, bolstered by 6 from 9 returns for all three MoS Tipsters, which left them filling the top three spots on the Leaderboard.
Read More
