Swans by 28, according to MoSHPlay

The MoS twins continue to be the boys who cried ‘unders’, although the gap between their average forecast total and that of the bookmakers is, at least, reducing.

This week they expect the average score to be about 165 points, while the Bookmakers have it about a goal higher

With such a short turnaround this week, I found myself locking in tips and wagers late last night (Monday) before the major adjustments had been made, so you might see some bigger discrepancies between the lines and prices quoted here, and what the markets look like as you read this.

At the time I locked in, the average expected margin of victory for Round 4, according to the TAB bookmaker, was 13.9 points per game, and six games were expected to be decided by less than 3 goals.

It’s the Western Bulldogs who now hold top spot on both MoS Team Rating Systems, ahead of Melbourne. Richmond has 3rd spot on MoSSBODS, but Port Adelaide has it on MoSHBODS.

None of the Head-to-Head Tipsters bagged more than 5 from 9 this week, but three of the four that managed that return were from the MoS stable, which sees them all sitting atop the Leaderboard.

Pies by 11 in the Thursday game, according to MoSHPlay

A business trip to Melbourne had me literally in the air when, I suspect, the markets at the TAB and Sportsbet first posted. I only got to them around 3:30pm, by which time the Totals offered had miraculously aligned, leaving Investors with $1.90 and $1.88 prices for the same risk in each market. Zero diversification benefits, the. But, more of that later.

Perhaps a slightly easier round to tip this week, with the all-game average expected margin at 15.7 points per game, and with all but one of the games expected to be won by about 4 goals or less, the exception being the North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs game, which the away team is expected to win by about 7 goals.

At the end of Round 2, the MoS twins now agree about the Top 4 and the Bottom 3 teams (and five other of the teams in-between).

With all but Control The Ladder and Home Sweet Home bagging 8 from 9 correct tips amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, it’s almost enough to convince me that “accuracy” might be a reasonable measure of a forecaster’s ability (hint: it absolutely isn’t).

MoSHPlay is very conservative in Game 1 of Round 2

In a welcome development, all nine Totals markets were up on Tuesday morning, so MoSSBODS could choose from a full menu and, given its still relatively bearish outlook on scoring, it liked what it saw.

On paper, tipping winners should be a little harder this week, since the TAB bookmaker all-game average expected margin is down from 16.8 to 14.2 points per game, with 6 of the 9 games expected to be won by under 13 points.

The MoS twins are, by design, big on punishments and rewards during the early rounds of a new season, and this week the Swans and the Lions, in particular, demonstrated that.

All of the Head-to-Head Tipsters, bar Home Sweet Home, correctly selected five or six winners this week, which saw the all-Tipster average come in at 5.3.

MoSHPlay’s first forecast of the season is bold without being ridiculous. That’s a good start.

The MoS twins, again this year, are far less optimistic about the likely levels of scoring in Round 1 than are the bookmakers. Overall, the twins are predicting about 10 points per game fewer.

At the start of a season there’s always a non-trivial risk that the MoS models will come up with forecasts that are riotously different from the bookmakers’, but this year it’s almost as if those bookmakers holidayed at Chez MoS over the offseason.

Exactly 12 months ago today, I posted about the tipsters, predictors and Funds for the 2020 season.

The world has changed a bit since then, but MoS won’t be - well not by much.

In Round 22, the bookmakers recorded the smallest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) for Game Margins, Home Team Scores, and AwayTeam Scores, and MoSHBODS recorded the smallest MAE for Game Totals.