With football due back now in under 10 days, it’s time to make some decisions about how the MoS twins and MARS are going to treat 2020 results. While it’s not yet clear how much 16-minute quarters will ultimately affect team and total scoring, for the time being I’m going to assume the effects are linear and therefore gross-up scoring by 25%.

There are three games this week where MoSHPlay’s forecast margins differs from MoSH2020’s by more than a goal:

• Richmond v Carlton: MoSHPlay Tigers by 10; MoSH2020 Tigers by 17

• Essendon v Fremantle: MoSHPlay Dons by 12; MoSH2020 Dons by 5

• Gold Coast v Port Adelaide: MoSHPlay Power by 30; MoSH2020 Power by 15

Last season we started with nine unders bets. In this otherwise very different season, we’re doing it again …

So, clearly, things are going to be a little different and less-structured this season, whatever of it we get.

Were I a betting man, I’d say there’s a better than even chance that this blog post will be totally moot in 24 hours time, but for now Round 1 is still going ahead as scheduled, so we’ll do what we always do here in preparation.

This is, I think, by far the furthest into a calendar year that I’ve posted about my plans for the upcoming men’s AFL season, though that’s not because I haven’t been making significant changes in preparation for it.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS penalised GWS heavily on the back of their Grand Final performance, slipping them back to 8th on both Systems.

Richmond, fittingly, finished 1st on both Systems, with a 2.4 Scoring Shot lead over the Lions on MoSSBODS, and an 8.3 point lead over the Cats on MoSHBODS.

Our three winners for 2019 are:

• Top Head-to-Head Tipster: Bookie Knows Best (137 from 207 - 66%)

• Top Margin Predictor: RSMP_Weighted (MAE of 26.69 points per game)

• Top Probability Predictor: MoSSBODS_Prob (0.1177 bits per game)

MoSHPlay is far less confident of a Tigers win than most other forecasters this week, eventually landing on a 10-point margin after the final teams were announced.

There’s virtually nothing separating the forecasts of the MoS twins and the two bookmakers this week.

The bookmakers have the Tigers as about 3-goal favourites over the Giants, and there’s not a great deal of disagreement coming from any of the forecasters about that assessment.

GWS rose to 3rd on MoSSBODS and to 5th on MoSHBODS this week after it made small rating gains on both Systems at the expense of Collingwood. The only other moves were Geelong and Collingwood each falling one spot on MoSSBODS, and Hawthorn falling one spot on MoSHBODS.

According to MoSSBODS, then, the Grand Final pits 1st versus 3rd while, according to MoSHBODS, it pits 1st versus 5th. MoSSBODS rates the Tigers as 1.7 Scoring Shots, or about a goal, stronger than GWS at a neutral venue, while MoSHBODS has the Tigers as 7.5 points stronger.

With the 2019 Preliminary Finals now completed, let’s have another look at how teams from different home-and-away ladder positions have fared in Finals since 2000.

All of the Head-to-Head Tipsters bagged 1 from 2 correct tips this week, with the exception of Consult The Ladder, who bagged neither.

That means ENS_Linear and RSMP_Simple are capable of finishing level with Bookie Knows Best should they successfully tip an upset victory in the Grand Final.

On the assumption that Langdon is named as Greene’s replacement, MoSHPlay has the Pies as just over 4-goal favourites. That compares with MoSHBODS’ assessment of a 10-point Pies win.

In the other game, MoSHPlay has assessed the Tigers as about 5-point favourites, while MoSHBODS has them winning by about 1 point less.

We have in prospect two Semi-Finals expected to produce victory margins of less than a goal and in which both underdogs are estimated as having 40 to 45% chances of progressing to a Preliminary Final.

With the 2019 semi-finals now completed, let’s have another look at how teams from different home-and-away ladder positions have fared in Finals since 2000.

Neither MoSSBODS nor MoSHBODS re-ranked any team this week, leaving the two of them with the following rankings of the Preliminary Finalists:

• Richmond: 1st on both

• Geelong: 3rd on MoSSBODS and 2nd on MoSHBODS

• Collingwood: 4th on MoSSBODS and 3rd on MoSHBODS

• GWS: 5th on MoSSBODS and 6th on MoSHBODS

Scores amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters ranged from 1 to 3 this week, which saw some movement on the Leaderboard, but left Bookie Knows Best still two tips clear at the top, now on 135 from 202 (67%).

MoSHPlay and MoSHBODS both have the Cats as 2-goal favourites, but MoSHPlay has the Lions as much narrower winners than does MoSHBODS.