The MoS twins are this week forecasting slightly higher totals than the bookmakers in the Friday game (where there is some prospect of gain), and roughly the same total as the bookmakers in the Saturday game (where no rain is forecast).

We have in prospect two Semi-Finals expected to produce victory margins of less than a goal and in which both underdogs are estimated as having 40 to 45% chances of progressing to a Preliminary Final.

With one week of the 2019 Finals Series now completed, let’s have a look at how teams from different home-and-away ladder positions have fared in Finals since 2000.

Both MoS Systems still have Richmond as their number one team after the 1st week of the Finals, but MoSSBODS has left the Brisbane Lions in 2nd, where MoSHBODS has dropped them two places into 8th.

MoSSBODS’ Top 3 is rounded out by Geelong, while MoSHBODS’ has the Cats in 2nd, and Collingwood in 3rd.

Scores amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters ranged from 1 to 3 this week, which saw some movement on the Leaderboard, but left Bookie Knows Best still two tips clear at the top, now on 135 from 202 (67%).

Not a lot of difference between MoSHPlay and MoSHBODS in the first final, with MoSHPlay favouring the Eagles by 30 points compared to MoSHBODS’ 25.

As a number of you pointed out, last week’s blog about likely scoring was written under the misapprehension that the first week of the Finals was not this week, but last.

So, I’ve decided to re-examine the markets today (Tuesday), which is two days before the first game of the round, and therefore more in keeping with our usual practice. There’s been movement in three of the TAB, and two of the Easybet totals, and movement in one of the Easybet line markets.

The MoS twins are this week forecasting slightly higher totals than the bookmakers in every game, most of all in the two games most likely to be rain-affected.

The expected margins in three of the four weekend Finals are under 7 points, leaving Thursday’s Eagles v Dons game as the only one threatening to be uncompetitive. Even in that game, however, the Dons are still assessed as about 1 in 4 chances of progressing.

Richmond took 1st place on MoSSBODS this week, relegating Brisbane Lions into 2nd, while the fast-rising Western Bulldogs leapt up into 3rd. On MoSHBODS, Richmond retained 1st, while 2nd and 3rd were filled by the climbing Western Bulldogs, and a drifting Geelong.

Amazingly, all but three teams moved places on MoSSBODS, and all but two moved on MoSHBODS.

With just nine results to come - and all of them in Finals, which are traditionally kind to favourites - it’s hard to see Bookie Knows Best (BKB) being overtaken on the Head-to-Head Tipsters’ Leaderboard before season’s end. With its 133 from 198 (67%) record, it still leads ENS_Linear by two tips.

There are five games this week where MoSHPlay’s forecast margins differs from MoSHBODS’ by about a goal or more:

• Collingwood v Gold Coast: MoSHPlay Pies by 54; MoSHBODS Pies by 41

• Fremantle v Geelong: MoSHPlay Cats by 26; MoSHBODS Cats by 13

• Adelaide v St Kilda: MoSHPlay Crows by 33; MoSHBODS Crows by 23

• Essendon v Port Adelaide: MoSHPlay Dons by 0.02; MoSHBODS Dons by 8

• Melbourne v Richmond: MoSHPlay Tigers by 14; MoSHBODS Tigers by 19

The only game in which MoSHPlay is tipping a different winner than is MoSHBODS is in the North Melbourne v Hawthorn game, where MoSHPlay favours Hawthorn by 4 points, and MoSHBODS favours North Melbourne by 2 points.

The MoS twins are, again this week, on average forecasting slightly lower totals than the bookmakers, and have higher forecasts in only the Pies v Dons, Dogs v Crows, and Tigers v Lions games, the last two of which are expected to be played in or after rain.

The expected margins are higher this week, but there’s still ample reason to be interested in this weekend’s fare, even as a neutral, since spots in the Top 4 and the Top 8 are very much in play.

Richmond took 1st place on MoSSBODS this week, relegating Brisbane Lions into 2nd, while the fast-rising Western Bulldogs leapt up into 3rd. On MoSHBODS, Richmond retained 1st, while 2nd and 3rd were filled by the climbing Western Bulldogs, and a drifting Geelong.

Amazingly, all but three teams moved places on MoSSBODS, and all but two moved on MoSHBODS.

Bookie Knows Best (BKB) extended its lead to two on the Head-to-Head Tipsters’ Leaderboard this week, as most of the trailing Tipsters managed only 4 from 9 correct tips while it managed 5 from 9.

ENS_Linear remains in 2nd place, ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg and the RSMP twins.

There are five games this week where MoSHPlay’s forecast margins differs from MoSHBODS’ by about a goal or more:

• Collingwood v Gold Coast: MoSHPlay Pies by 54; MoSHBODS Pies by 41

• Fremantle v Geelong: MoSHPlay Cats by 26; MoSHBODS Cats by 13

• Adelaide v St Kilda: MoSHPlay Crows by 33; MoSHBODS Crows by 23

• Essendon v Port Adelaide: MoSHPlay Dons by 0.02; MoSHBODS Dons by 8

• Melbourne v Richmond: MoSHPlay Tigers by 14; MoSHBODS Tigers by 19

The only game in which MoSHPlay is tipping a different winner than is MoSHBODS is in the North Melbourne v Hawthorn game, where MoSHPlay favours Hawthorn by 4 points, and MoSHBODS favours North Melbourne by 2 points.

The MoS twins are, on average, forecasting slightly lower totals this week than the bookmakers, and have higher forecasts in only the Dees v Swans, and Tigers v Eagles games, which are both to be played on a potentially damp MCG.

The average bookmaker handicap for Round 22 is a ridiculous 8.6 points per game, the lowest for a single round in all of the history we’re tracking.

That average would have been lower still but for the final game of the round, Hawks v Suns, where the expected margin is about 7 goals. All eight of the remaining games have expected margins of under 2 goals, and five of them have expected margins of under 1 goal. If you’re in a tipping contest, this round will almost certainly see some big changes on the leaderboard.

With this week’s average dragging it down, the 2019 all-season average now stands at 16.8 points per game, which is over 4 points per game below the 2018 average.

The Brisbane Lions took 1st place on MoSSBODS this week and Port Adelaide snared 3rd, while Richmond stayed top on MoSHBODS as a resurgent Geelong leapt into 2nd.

That left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Brisbane Lions, Richmond, and Port Adelaide, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Richmond, Geelong, and Brisbane Lions.