The Dees' surprise victory was very much the engine for the weekend's healthy profit though other results also helped ensure that this was the first black-ink round since Round 15.

The Overs/Unders Fund has made just three wagers this week, the fewest it's made since Round 13 when only six games were on offer, and only the second time it's made so few bets in a 9-game round. With experience comes wisdom (or is that uncertainty?).

We've seven wagers this week, three head-to-head and four line, all of them on underdogs.

Just a quick post to answer a question raised in the comments section of an earlier blog on the team-by-team performances of the MoS Tipsters and Predictors. There the requester asked me to undertake another team-by-team analysis, here to summarise each team's performance on the Line market this season.

It is, I'm beginning to think, somehow in the nature of the 2016 season that teams will continue to rise and fall in the rankings of MoS' various Team Rating Systems right up until the Grand Final is over.

Football teams, at this time of the year, can be cagey about the form they're in, which is what I'm hoping is also true of the MoS Funds. Together this week they managed to lose another 1.1% of the original Overall Portfolio Fund, the Head-to-Head Fund shedding 0.9c on a 2 from 4 performance, the Line Fund shedding 1.5c on a 2 from 5 performance, and the Overs/Unders Fund shedding 0.6c on a 3 from 6 performance.

That leaves the Overall Portfolio, having lost money the past four weeks, up by just 6.7c on the season.

The Overs/Unders Fund likes a lot of what it sees in this week's offerings, sufficient to make wagers in six of the nine games, which is the most it's made since Round 10 when it also made six bets.

As I've mentioned previously, I get nervous about wagering at this time of year because the motivations of teams become less clear. In modelling terms, this can manifest as a change in a team's mean ability, as an increase in the variability of its performance around that mean, or as both. All you can really do is abstain from wagering or hope that, on balance, the motivation-induced error and variance terms work in your favour.

Well that was quite a round.

Enough, in fact, to have MARS re-ranking half the teams and ChiPS re-ranking eight.

Another poor weekend's wagering saw almost 6c wiped off the value of the Overall Portfolio - another record - as both the Head-to-Head and Line Funds missed on all four of their wagers.  

In keeping with this week's theme of "balance", the Overs/Unders Fund has made four bets this week, two on the unders and two on the overs.

This week, Investors face no especially high-stakes games. the most radical head-to-head wager priced at just $2.60 and the largest line bet sized at just 1.5% of the Fund.

It was a relatively quiet week for team re-rankings on both MARS and ChiPS this week, with MARS promoting or demoting three teams by a single place and ChiPS doing the same for five teams.

Another loss this week, in fact the worst in a single round this season, as the losses from the Head-to-Head Fund's 1 from 5 and the Line Fund's 3 from 6 couldn't be overcome by the Overs/Unders Fund's profit on a 4 from 5 performance.

With the change to the methodology for predicting team and total scores as described in last week's blog, it appears we've entered a new phase of overs/unders wagering. For the first time in the Overs/Unders Fund's history, it's made more overs than unders wagers this week.

At this point in the season, with a number of teams looking to next year as their source for additional honours, I usually get a little nervous about how wise it is to be wagering essentially oblivious to that reality. This year is no different.

The Saturday of a golfing tournament is sometimes referred to as "moving day". Round 16 of the AFL appears to have been "moving week".

Though the Dons gave Investors (once again) false hope of an unlikely profit on the weekend, the eventual 2.6c loss for the Overall Portfolio was probably a fair reflection of the round.

The Overs/Unders Fund has gone all Goldilocks on more than half of the weekend's TAB Totals, declaring them "just right" and thus unsuitable for any investment. 

Both the Line Fund and the Head-to-Head Fund have taken the opportunity afforded by the first 9-game round for three weeks to ramp up their wagering activity, finding value in the first two and the last two games of the round.