Can We Use Head-to-Head Market Movements in the Line Market?
/Yesterday's post led to an interesting Twitter thread last evening, which included a suggestion to reanalyse the data to determine whether price movements in the Pinnacle head-to-head market might have predictive value in other markets for the same game, specifically in the line market.
Read MoreIs There a Signal in Head-to-Head Market Movements?
/Watching the TAB markets as they've shifted across the course of a week I've often wondered if there might be something predictive in those movements. If the eventual favourite's price has shortened during the week, does it win more or less often than its closing price would suggest?
Read MoreWhen Favourites Lose: Accuracy or Scoring Shot Production?
/In today's post I'll review the performance of all the teams that have been assessed as favourites by the TAB in games played during the period 2006 to the end of Round 17 in 2015, excluding only those games where the TAB bookmaker installed equal-favourites.
Read MoreWinning Scores and Underdogs' Chances
/Recently, I noted, somewhat in passing in this piece on close game and blowouts, the decline in overall team scoring, a topic that's receiving not a little attention within the football community at the moment, fuelled partly by some recent low-scoring games, in particular the Dees v Lions encounter.
Read MoreModelling Team Scores as Weibull Distributions : Part II
/In a previous post I discussed the possibility of modelling AFL team scores as Weibull distributions, finding that there was no compelling empirical or other reason to discount the idea and promising to conduct further analyses to more directly assess the Weibull distribution's suitability for the task.
Read MorePredicting the Lead at Every Change Part II: Quantile Regression Splines
/In the previous blog I fitted four separate quantile regressions to game margins at the end of each quarter using the TAB Bookmaker probability as the sole regressor
Read More