This year’s post Round 3 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Melbourne and GWS: 80-85% chances of being finalists; 55-60% chances of Top 4; 20% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Fremantle, Geelong, Carlton, Sydney, and Port Adelaide: 65-75% chances of being finalists; 35-45% chances of Top 4; 8% to 13% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast: 45-50% chances of being finalists; 15-20% chances of Top 4; 2% to 4% chances of being Minor Premier

4. St Kilda, Collingwood, Adelaide, and Brisbane Lions: 30-40% chances of being finalists; 10-15% chances of Top 4; up to 2% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Essendon, Richmond, and Hawthorn: 10-20% chances of being finalists; 2-5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. North Melbourne and West Coast: 1-3% chances of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4 or of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 2 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. GWS, Sydney, and Melbourne: 80% chances of being finalists; 50-55% chances of Top 4; 15-20% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Port Adelaide, Geelong, Fremantle, and Carlton: 60-70% chances of being finalists; 30-40% chances of Top 4; 7.5% to 12% chances of being Minor Premier

3. St Kilda, Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, and Adelaide: 40-50% chances of being finalists; 15-20% chances of Top 4; 2% to 4% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Collingwood, Essendon, and Hawthorn: 15-25% chances of being finalists; 4-6% chances of Top 4; 0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Richmond and North Melbourne: 7-10% chances of being finalists; 1-2% chances of Top 4; very slim chances of being Minor Premier

6. West Coast: 1.5% chance of being a finalist; tiny chance of Top 4 or of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney and GWS: 75-80% chances of being finalists; 15-20% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Carlton, Gold Coast, Adelaide, and Fremantle: 60-70% chances of being finalists; 6% to 10% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Geelong and Brisbane Lions : 50% chances of being finalists; 3% to 5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. St Kilda, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, and Hawthorn: 25-40% chances of being finalists; 1-3% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Richmond, Essendon, and North Melbourne: 10-15% chances of being finalists; 0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

6. West Coast: 3% chance of being a finalist; tiny chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 0 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. GWS and Adelaide: 70% chances of being finalists; 15% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Sydney, Carlton, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast, Melbourne, and Fremantle: 55-65% chances of being finalists; 6% to 9% chances of being Minor Premier

3. St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, and Geelong: 40-45% chances of being finalists; 4% to 4.5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Richmond, and Hawthorn: 20-30% chances of being finalists; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

5. North Melbourne and Essendon: 10-15% chances of being finalists; 0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

6. West Coast: 5% chance of being a finalist; 0.1% chance of being Minor Premier

For reasons outlined last year in a blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal, and because I feel as though the simulations last year were fairly reasonable, I am now running only hot (aka Heretical) simulations.

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, there are also some details about this in that blog post. The short version though is that, within each simulation replicate, the results of a simulated game are used to update the teams’ Ratings and Venue Performance Values, which are then used for the following game. In other words, we treat the simulated results as if they were real ones, and alter the relevant parameters accordingly.

This year’s pre Round 0 (sic) simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as follows (although such grouping is much harder this year, such is the apparent evenness of the competition):

1. GWS and Adelaide: 70%-75% chances of being finalists; 13-17% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Melbourne, Brisbane Lions, Sydney, Collingwood, and Port Adelaide: 55-65% chances of being finalists; 6.5% to 10% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Fremantle, Carlton, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, and Geelong: 40-50% chances of being finalists; 4% to 6% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Gold Coast, Richmond, and Hawthorn: 30-40% chances of being finalists; 2-3% chances of being Minor Premier

5. North Melbourne and Essendon: 15% chances of being finalists; 0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

6. West Coast: 5% chance of being a finalist; 0.1% chance of being Minor Premier

Brisbane Lions are, narrowly, most favoured, at about 1-in-3 chances, ahead of Collingwood and GWS both at about 3-in-10 chances.

These probabilities are quite different to the market’s partly because MoSHBODS has the Lions as stronger favourites against Carlton than the market does, and also has GWS as slight favourites over Collingwood.

Collingwood and GWS both win about 60% of the Grand Finals they make, while Brisbane Lions and Carlton only win about 40%.

The most-recent MoSHBODS-based hot simulations see Brisbane Lions and Collingwood as strong and near-equal Flag favourites.

Those most-recent simulations produce the probability estimates shown at right for the week at which each team will bow out of the race.

The Flag estimates see Melbourne on top with about a 30% chance, an estimate that makes their current $4 market price seem quite attractive.

In contrast, Collingwood at $3.30 looks a long way short of value, as are Brisbane Lions, also at $4, Carlton at $12, and Sydney at $51.

GWS at $26, and St Kilda at $41 look like they might be a bit of fun but, unlike Melbourne, are very unlikely to delight.

Things are a lot simpler after last weekend, at least as far as Minor Premier, Top 4, and Top 8 are concerned, and the simulations now suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Collingwood: certain of finishing Top 4; and about 85% chance of being Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions: certain of finishing Top 4; about a 15% chance of being Minor Premier

3. Port Adelaide: certain of finishing Top 4; tiny chance of being Minor Premier (needs Collingwood to lose, Brisbane Lions to draw or lose, and to win by enough to lift their percentage above Collingwood’s. Roughly speaking, the sum of Collingwood’s losing margin and their own winning margin needs to be about 190 points or more)

4. Melbourne: certain of finishing Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

5. Carlton, St Kilda, and Sydney: certain of being finalists; no chance of finishing Top 4

6. GWS: 70% chance of being finalists; no chance of finishing Top 4

7. Western Bulldogs: 28% chance of being finalists; no chance of finishing Top 4

8. Essendon, Geelong, Adelaide, Richmond, Gold Coast, Fremantle, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and West Coast: no chance of being finalists

The latest simulations suggest that there are still 10 teams with about a 2-in-5 or better chance of playing Finals, with five or six teams realistically competing for three of the eight spots.

Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Collingwood: certain of finishing Top 4; and about 90% chance of being Minor Premier

2. Port Adelaide: certain of finishing Top 4; tiny chance of being Minor Premier

3. Brisbane Lions: certain of finishing Top 4; about a 10% chance of being Minor Premier

4. Melbourne: certain of being finalists; 90% chance of finishing Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

5. Carlton: virtually certain of being finalists; 8% chance of finishing Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

6. St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, and Sydney: 60 to 70% chance of being finalists; no chance of finishing Top 4 or being Minor Premier

7. Geelong and Adelaide: 40 to 45% chance of being finalists; no chance of finishing Top 4 or being Minor Premier

8. GWS: 25% chance of being finalists; no chance of finishing Top 4 or being Minor Premier

9. Essendon: 7.5% chance of being finalists; no chance of finishing Top 4 or being Minor Premier

10. Richmond, Gold Coast, Fremantle, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and West Coast: no chance of being finalists, finishing Top 4. or being Minor Premier

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology used for these simulations, please refer to this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

The latest simulations suggest that there are still 10 teams with a 2-in-5 or better chance of playing Finals, with seven teams realistically competing for four of the eight spots.

Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Collingwood: certain of finishing Top 4; and about 75% chance of being Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions: certain of being finalists; almost certain of finishing Top 4; and about 20% chance of being Minor Premier

3. Port Adelaide and Melbourne: certain of being finalists; almost certain of finishing Top 4; and about 1 to 4% chance of being Minor Premier

4. Carlton and Western Bulldogs: 85% chance of being finalists; 2 to 7% chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

5. GWS, Geelong, and Sydney: 45 to 60% chance of being finalists; little or no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

6. St Kilda and Adelaide: 25 to 40% chance of being finalists; little to no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

7. Essendon, Richmond, and Gold Coast: 1 to 7% chance of being finalists; no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

8. Fremantle, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and West Coast: no chance of being finalists, finishing Top 4. or being Minor Premier

The latest simulations suggest that there are still 12 teams with a 1-in-4 or better chance of playing Finals, with eight teams that are most likely to compete for four of the eight spots.

Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Collingwood: certain of finishing Top 4; and about 95% chance of being Minor Premier

2. Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, and Melbourne: certain of being finalists; almost certain of finishing Top 4; and about 2 to 4% chance of being Minor Premier

3. Carlton, GWS, and Western Bulldogs: 60 to 75% of being finalists; 2 to 7% chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

4. Geelong: 50% of being finalists; virtually no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

5. St Kilda, Sydney, Richmond, and Adelaide: 25 to 40% of being finalists; virtually no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

6. Essendon and Gold Coast: 5 to 10% chance of being finalists; no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

7. Fremantle: almost no chance of being finalists; no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

8. Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and West Coast: no chance of being finalists, finishing Top 4. or being Minor Premier

The latest simulations (and this week there are 50,000 of them, which means that the 95% confidence intervals for the probability estimates fall from 1% to 0.4%), suggest that there are now 12 teams with a 1-in-4 or better chance of playing Finals.

Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Collingwood: certain of finishing Top 4; and 85% chance of being Minor Premier

2. Port Adelaide and Brisbane Lions: certain of being finalists; almost certain of finishing Top 4; and 5 to 10% chance of being Minor Premier

3. Melbourne: almost certain of being finalists; 80% chance of finishing Top 4; but virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

4. Western Bulldogs and Geelong: 80 to 85% of being finalists; 8% chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

5. Carlton: 60% of being finalists; 5% chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

6. GWS and Richmond: about 40% chance of being finalists; about 3-in-200 chance or less of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

7. Essendon, St Kilda, and Sydney: 25 to 30% chance of being finalists; virtually no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

8. Adelaide: about 15% chance of being finalists; virtually no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

9. Gold Coast: about 5-in-200 chance of being finalists; no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

10. Fremantle: virtually no chance of being finalists; no chance of finishing Top 4 or being Minor Premier

11. Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and West Coast: no chance of being finalists, finishing Top 4. or being Minor Premier

The latest simulations suggest that there are now nine teams with a 1-in-3 or better chance of playing Finals, seven teams with about a 1-in-20 or better chance of finishing Top 4, and three teams with about a 1-in-11 or better chance of finishing as Minor Premiers.

Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Collingwood: certain of being finalists; almost certain of finishing Top 4; and 2-in-3 chance of being Minor Premier

2. Port Adelaide: certain of being finalists; almost certain of finishing Top 4; and 25% chance of being Minor Premier

3. Brisbane Lions: almost certain of being finalists; 95% chance of finishing Top 4; and about 10% chance of being Minor Premier

4. Melbourne: almost certain of being finalists; 75% chance of finishing Top 4; but virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

5. Geelong: 85% of being finalists; 15% chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

6. Western Bulldogs and Carlton: 65 to 70% of being finalists; 5% chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

7. Essendon: 50% of being finalists; 2% chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

8. Richmond, GWS, St Kilda, Adelaide, and Sydney: about 20 to 30% chance of being finalists; about 1% chance or less of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

9. Gold Coast: about 10% chance of being finalists; a tiny chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

10. Fremantle: about 1% chance of being finalists; no chance of finishing Top 4 or being Minor Premier

11. Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and West Coast: no chance of being finalists, finishing Top 4. or being Minor Premier

The latest simulations suggest that there are 11 teams with a 1-in-3 or better chance of playing Finals, seven teams with about a 1-in-10 or better chance of finishing Top 4, and three teams with about a 1-in-9 or better chance of finishing as Minor Premiers.

Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Collingwood and Port Adelaide: almost certain of being finalists; 99% chance or better of finishing Top 4; and 40 to 50% chance of being Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions: almost certain of being finalists; 95% chance of finishing Top 4; and about 10% chance of being Minor Premier

3. Melbourne: about 95% of being finalists; 65% chance of finishing Top 4; but virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

4. Western Bulldogs. Essendon, and Geelong: 65 to 70% of being finalists; 10% chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

5. St Kilda, Adelaide, and Carlton: about 40 to 50% chance of being finalists; about 3 to 4% chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

6. Richmond: about 33% chance of being finalists; virtually no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

7. Sydney, GWS, and Gold Coast: about 8 to 16% chance of being finalists; virtually no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

8. Fremantle: about 3% chance of being a finalist; virtually no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

9. Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and West Coast: no chance of being finalists, finishing Top 4. or being Minor Premier

The latest simulations suggest that there are still nine teams with a 1-in-2 or better chance of playing Finals, seven teams with about a 1-in-10 or better chance of finishing Top 4, and three teams with about a 1-in-8 or better chance of finishing as Minor Premiers.

Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Port Adelaide and Collingwood: almost certain of being finalists; 98% chance of finishing Top 4; and 40 to 45% chance of being Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions: almost certain of being finalists; 90% chance of finishing Top 4; and about 10 to 15% chance of being Minor Premier

3. Melbourne: about 95% of being finalists; 55 to 60% chance of finishing Top 4; but virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

4. Western Bulldogs: 80% of being finalists; 20% chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

5. Geelong, Adelaide, St Kilda, and Essendon: about 50 to 60% chance of being finalists; about 6 to 11% chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

6. Sydney, Richmond, and Carlton: about 20 to 30% chance of being finalists; about 1 to 2% chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

7. Fremantle, GWS, and Gold Coast: about 10% chance of being a finalist; virtually no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

8. Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and West Coast: little to no chance of being finalists, finishing Top 4. or being Minor Premier

There are still nine teams with about a 1-in-2 or better chance of playing Finals, seven teams with about a 1-in-9 or better chance of finishing Top 4, and three teams with about a 1-in-8 or better chance of finishing as Minor Premiers.

Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Port Adelaide: almost certain of being finalists; 95% chance of finishing Top 4; and 50% chance of being Minor Premier

2. Collingwood: almost certain of being finalists; 90% chance of finishing Top 4; and 30% chance of being Minor Premier

3. Brisbane Lions: almost certain of being finalists; 80% chance of finishing Top 4; and about 10 to 15% chance of being Minor Premier

4. Melbourne: 95% of being finalists; 70% chance of finishing Top 4; and about 5% chance of being Minor Premier

5. Western Bulldogs: 65% of being finalists; 15 to 20% chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

6. Essendon, Geelong, St Kilda,and Adelaide: about 45 to 55% chance of being finalists; about 7 to 11% chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

7. Richmond, Gold Coast, and Sydney: about 30% chance of being finalists; about 2 to 3% chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

8. Fremantle and Carlton: about 15% chance of being a finalist; about 0.5 to 1% chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

9. GWS: about 6% chance of being a finalist and virtually no chance of finishing Top 4 or being Minor Premier

10. Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and West Coast: little to no chance of being finalists, finishing Top 4. or being Minor Premier

There are now nine teams with about a 1-in-2 or better chance of playing Finals, eight teams with about a 1-in-9 or better chance of finishing Top 4, and three teams with about a 1-in-9 or better chance of finishing as Minor Premiers.

Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Port Adelaide: almost certain of being finalists; 95% chance of finishing Top 4; and 50% chance of being Minor Premier

2. Collingwood: almost certain of being finalists; 85 to 90% chance of finishing Top 4; and 30% chance of being Minor Premier

3. Melbourne and Brisbane Lions: almost certain of being finalists; 70 to 75% chance of finishing Top 4; and about 10% chance of being Minor Premier

4. Essendon and Western Bulldogs: about 70% chance of being finalists; about 15 to 20% chance of finishing Top 4; and very small chance of being Minor Premier

5. St Kilda and Adelaide: about 60% chance of being finalists; 10 to 15% chance of finishing Top 4; and very small chance of being Minor Premier

6. Geelong: about 50% chance of being finalists; about 8% chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

7. Richmond: about 33% chance of being finalists; about 2% chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

8. Gold Coast, Carlton, Fremantle and Sydney: about 10 to 20% chance of being a finalist; about 0.5 to 1.5% chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

9. GWS: about 7% chance of being a finalist and virtually no chance of finishing Top 4 or being Minor Premier

10. Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and West Coast: little to no chance of being finalists, finishing Top 4. or being Minor Premier

There are now nine teams with about a 5-in-9 or better chance of playing Finals, nine teams with about a 1-in-9 or better chance of finishing Top 4, and three teams with about a 1-in-7 or better chance of finishing as Minor Premiers.

Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Port Adelaide and Collingwood: almost certain of being finalists; 85 to 90% chance of finishing Top 4; and 35 to 40% chance of being Minor Premier

2. Melbourne: almost certain of being finalists; 75% chance of finishing Top 4; and about 15% chance of being Minor Premier

3. Brisbane Lions: about 90% chance of being finalists; 60% chances of finishing Top 4; and 8% chance of being Minor Premier

4. St Kilda and Essendon: about 65 to 70% chance of being finalists; about 20 to 25% chance of finishing Top 4; and 2% chance of being Minor Premier

5. Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, and Geelong: about 55 to 60% chance of being finalists; 10 to 15% chance of finishing Top 4; and about 0.5% chance of being Minor Premier

6. Gold Coast and Fremantle: about 30% chance of being finalists; about 4% chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

7. Richmond and Sydney: about 20% chance of being a finalist; 1.5% chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

8. Carlton: roughly 7% chance of being finalists; and little to virtually no chance of finishing Top 4 or being Minor Premier

9. GWS: about 3% chance of being a finalist and virtually no chance of finishing Top 4 or being Minor Premier

10. Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and West Coast: little to no chance of being finalists, finishing Top 4. or being Minor Premier

There are now 10 teams with about a 2-in-5 or better chances of playing Finals (and another two teams with around 1-in-3 chances), eight teams with about a 1-in-9 or better chance of finishing Top 4, and three teams with about a 1-in-5 or better chance of finishing as Minor Premiers.

Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Collingwood: almost certain of being a finalist; 90% chance of finishing Top 4; and 50% chance of being Minor Premier

2. Port Adelaide and Brisbane Lions: better than 95% chance of being finalists; 75% chances of finishing Top 4; and 20% chance of being Minor Premier

3. Melbourne: 90% chance of being finalists; 60% chance of finishing Top 4; and about 9% chance of being Minor Premier

4. Western Bulldogs: 75% chance of being finalists; 30% chance of finishing Top 4; and about 1 to 2% chance of being Minor Premier

5. St Kilda, Essendon, and Geelong: about 50 to 60% chance of being finalists; about 10 to 15% chance of finishing Top 4; and 0.5% chance of being Minor Premier

6. Fremantle and Adelaide: about 40 to 45% chance of being finalists; about 6 to 9% chance of finishing Top 4; and 0.1 to 0.5% chance of being Minor Premier

7. Gold Coast and Sydney: about 30% chance of being a finalist; 4 to 5% chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

8. Carlton and Richmond: roughly 10% to 20% chance of being finalists; 1% chance of finishing Top 4; and little to virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

9. GWS: about 3% chance of being a finalist and virtually no chance of finishing Top 4 or being Minor Premier

10. Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and West Coast: little to no chance of being finalists, finishing Top 4. or being Minor Premier