2024 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 1

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This year’s post Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Sydney and GWS: 75-80% chances of being finalists; 15-20% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Carlton, Gold Coast, Adelaide, and Fremantle: 60-70% chances of being finalists; 6% to 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong and Brisbane Lions : 50% chances of being finalists; 3% to 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. St Kilda, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, and Hawthorn: 25-40% chances of being finalists; 1-3% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Richmond, Essendon, and North Melbourne: 10-15% chances of being finalists; 0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. West Coast: 3% chance of being a finalist; tiny chance of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The ladder projections using the Heretical outputs appear below.

Collingwood’s and Western Bulldog’s Finals chances fell most substantially this week, and Sydney’s and Melbourne’s rose most substantially.

There are now 10 teams with about a 50% or higher chance of playing Finals, and 14 with a 25% or higher chance. There are also 10 teams with a 20% or higher chance of finishing Top 4. This season continues to quack as though it’s going to be a close one.

TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION

The HHI figures for these pre-season simulation replicates appear below. These provide us with estimates of:

  • How many ladder positions a team is currently effectively fighting for

  • How many teams are currently effectively fighting for a given ladder position

A full round has had quite an effect on team and position concentrations, with the majority of teams still effectively fighting for between 15 and 17 ladder positions, and most ladder positions still having 15 to 17 teams effectively fighting for them.

On the teams side, the largest exceptions are West Coast, North Melbourne, and Sydney, while and on the ladder positions side, the largest exceptions remain 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 16th, 17th, and 18th.

We see, as we do every year, that the ladder positions with the most uncertainty are those in the middle of the table, from about 5th to 14th.

We also see that the average team is effectively competing for about 14 positions, and the average ladder position has about 14 teams competing for it. Both of these metrics are wn by about 1 this week.

WINS AND LADDER POSITION

With 23 games per team again this season, let’s look at the number of wins MoSHBODS thinks will be sufficient for given ladder positions.

The chart below reveals what the simulations suggest about that recalibration.

Based on the simulations, we can say that:

  • For teams finishing 8th in a replicate: 29% had 12 wins, 37% had 13 wins, and 9% had 12.5 wins (also, 5% had 11 wins and 10% had 14 wins)

  • For teams finishing 4th in a replicate: 31% had 15 wins, 30% had 16 wins, and 7% had 15.5 wins (also, 10% had 14 wins, and 4% had 14.5 wins)

Looked at another way:

  • For teams finishing win 11 wins: 5% made Finals

  • For teams finishing win 12 wins: 35% made Finals

  • For teams finishing win 13 wins: 81% made Finals

  • For teams finishing win 14 wins: 98% made Finals

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

Next, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are that:

  • There’s still about a 3-in-8 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages

  • There’s still about a 1-in-3 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages

  • There’s about a 9-in-20 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages