2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 0

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This year’s post Round 0 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Brisbane Lions and Western Bulldogs: about 90% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 50-55% chances of Top 4; roughly 15-20% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Gold Coast: about 85% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 45% chances of Top 4; roughly 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong and Hawthorn: about 80% chances of being finalists; roughly 35-40% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. GWS, Collingwood, Adelaide, Sydney, and Fremantle: about 65-75% chances of being finalists; roughly 25-35% of Top 4; roughly 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne: about 55% chances of being finalists; about 15% chances of Top 4; about 3% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Port Adelaide and St Kilda: about 35-40% chances of being finalists; about 5-10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Carlton and North Melbourne: about 20-30% chances of being finalists; about 3-5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Richmond, Essendon, and West Coast: about 10 to 15% chances of being finalists; about 1-2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have then 11 teams with about or better than 5-in-9 chances of finishing Top 10, 10 with about or better than a 1-in-4 chance of finishing Top 4, and six with about or better than 1-in-11 chances of finishing as the Minor Premier.

No team yet has a less than 1-in-11 chance of playing Finals (even though they’re almost a 30% chance for the Spoon). Wildcard Round: gotta love it.

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with rough fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Western Bulldogs ($5.80)

  • Brisbane Lions ($6.10)

  • Gold Coast ($9.65)

  • Hawthorn ($11)

  • Geelong ($11.35)

  • Adelaide ($12.35)

  • Collingwood ($15.25)

  • Sydney ($17.45)

  • GWS ($18.80)

  • Fremantle ($20)

  • Melbourne ($29.20)

  • St Kilda ($90)

  • Port Adelaide ($102)

  • Carlton ($130)

  • North Melbourne ($240)

  • Essendon ($415)

  • Richmond ($550)

  • West Coast ($1,450)

COMBINATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 1,000,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 1,000,000 different Top 18s

  • 999,569 different Top 10s (and 20,158 different sets of 10 teams in them)

  • 34,659 different Top 4s (and 2,645 different sets of 4 teams in them)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 2-in-9 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (up to 18% from 16%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 3-in-10 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up to 31% from 28%)

  • AVOID WILDCARD ROUND: There’s about a 1-in-3 chance that 6th will be decided on percentages (up to 33% from 31%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s about a 1-in-3 chance that 10th will be decided on percentages (up to 33% from 32%)