AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 9

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This year’s post Round 9 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; virtually certain of being Minor Premier

  2. Hawthorn, Melbourne, and Brisbane: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85-90% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Carlton : about 95% chances of being finalists; around 30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide: about 85% chances of being finalists; around 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Sydney: about 70% chances of being finalists; around 3% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda and West Coast: about 45-50% chance of being finalists; around 1% to <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Fremantle, Geelong, and Collingwood: around 15-20% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Western Bulldogs: about 1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Essendon, Port Adelaide, Richmond, GWS, and Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have 9 teams with about a 9-in-20 or better chance of finishing Top 8, and four with about or better than an 85% chance of finishing Top 4.

It still looks as though 6.5 to 7 wins will be what’s required by most teams to make the Final 8 although 7.5 wins would provide near certainty for most. Brisbane and Collingwood still have reasonable estimated chances with as few as 5.5 to 6 wins.

TOP 2s and Top 4s

Across the 10,000 simulation replicates, only 6 different combinations of teams appeared as the Top 2 at the end of the home and away season and they are shown in the table at right.

Just over 40% of those replicates had North Melbourne in 1st and Hawthorn in 2nd, another just under 40% had North Melbourne in 1st and Melbourne in 2nd, and 99.8% of them had North Melbourne in 1st with some team in 2nd.

One pairing appeared only twice in the 10,000 replicates: North Melbourne and Adelaide.

The simulations again offered a lot more variety in terms of final Top 4s. Overall, there were 99 of them, the top 10 of which are shown in the table at left.

North Melbourne again dominates and appears in 1st place in all of the quartets, with Melbourne filling 2nd place in five quartets, Hawthorn in three, and Brisbane in two.

Carlton appear in five quartets, but never higher than 3rd.

Together, these 10 combinations represent just over 80% of all replicates.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

Next we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 12 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • There’s now about a 5-in-9 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (55% down from 59%)

  • There’s just over a 1-in-2 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (52% up from 43%)

  • There’s now only about a 1-in-33 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (3% down from 4%)

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.41)

  • Brisbane (about $5.90)

  • Melbourne (about $12.50)

We can also look at the week in which teams will bow out of the Finals. and the teams they’ll bow out to

Note that the bottom half of the graphic is a replica of the top half but with varying y-axes for each team to better facilitate an understanding of the actual percentages.

Finally, we’ll take a look at possible Grand Final pairings

Note that 0s denote those pairings where the result occurred in less than 0.5% of replicates.

The most likely Grand Final now involves North Melbourne defeating Brisbane, which occurs in just over 32% of all replicates. The next most likely involves North Melbourne defeating Melbourne, which occurs in 24% of all replicates.

Another 12% are accounted for by Brisbane defeating North Melbourne, and another 6% by Melbourne defeating North Melbourne.

In total, North Melbourne appears in 91% of all Grand Finals, Brisbane in 51%, Melbourne in 35%, and Hawthorn in 11%.